Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 22, 2026

FINAL+3PIT

0-2

PIT

2-0

LECOM Park · Bradenton, Florida

4,912 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PIT vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 103 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.9± 2.8medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Esmerlyn ValdezPIT
2.5± 3.1medium
Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
0.9± 1.4high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low
Bubba ChandlerPIT
2.4± 1.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PIT

.730

OPS

.718

▶

.755

.336

OBP

.319

.336

4.52

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.12

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.18

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

TB 4 · PIT 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	4
PIT	0	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Delgado2B	.667	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Morgan1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. OlivaresRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MeltonLF	.200	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Areinamo2B	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
G. BarriosSS	1.000	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. LevinsC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Polanco2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. MyersOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. Bush Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. FlewellingC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Davidson1B	.333	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
C. Kinney2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	7	3	1	2	11

Player

.667

.200

.000

.000

.000

.200

.000

1.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodfordRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	--
G. JaxRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
Y. GomezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	--
C. SulserRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
L. GuerreroRP	0.1	2	3	3	3	0	--
J. LancasterRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	--
A. CookRP	1.0	3	2	1	0	2	--
C. SoleskyRP	1.0	2	2	0	1	2	--
C. HillRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
Team	8.0	10	7	4	7	7	0

Player

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Yorke3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Lowe2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. ReynoldsLF	1.000	3	0	3	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. GarciaRF	.400	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.200	2	0	0	1	0	1	1
D. FletcherRF	.000	1	0	0	1	0	1	1
D. Wendzel3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Cimillo1B	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
E. Gourson2B	.500	1	2	1	0	0	2	0
T. Blanco Jr.1B	.500	2	1	1	2	0	0	0
S. RossC	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. FlorentinoOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. De Los SantosSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RivasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. White Jr.CF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
T. DumitruOF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		35	7	10	7	1	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellerSP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	--
C. DevenskiRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	--
I. MattsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	--
M. MontgomeryRP	0.2	2	1	1	1	1	--
B. NeeckRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	--
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	--
N. DavisRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
E. SiskRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	7	4	4	2	11	0

Team

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PIT vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs TB.