New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Feb 20, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

NYY

0-1

BAL

1-0

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

7,886 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.2medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
5.9± 3.1medium

Hits

Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.0high

Total bases

Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.7± 1.8high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.7± 1.9high
Taylor WardBAL
1.6± 2.1high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.7± 1.1high
Samuel BasalloBAL
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Shane BazBAL
2.6± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

BAL

.740

OPS

◀

.719

.716

.319

OBP

.319

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.58

3.36

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.39

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

NYY 0 · BAL 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. WellsC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Rosario3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Martinez Jr.1B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. LucianoOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. EllisCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. CoronaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. SanchezC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. MartinRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. ShortSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrnelasSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CastilloRF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. Hardman1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AvinaLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	0	3	0	0	2	13

Player

.000

.000

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.500

.000

1.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RodriguezSP	3.0	3	0	0	0	1	--
J. BirdRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	--
K. CastroRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
B. HannerRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	--
C. ColemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
D. ColemanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	--
Team	8.0	8	2	2	3	7	0

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.333	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
S. BasalloC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. O'NeillRF	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
C. CowserCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. KjerstadLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Mayo3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. WillemsC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. HuffC	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. TrimbleLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. RobertsonLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. ButterworthSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. Eeles2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	2	8	2	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	--
K. AkinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	--
R. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	--
G. WolframRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	--
J. EspadaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	--
T. GibsonSP	3.0	2	0	0	0	3	--
Team	9.0	3	0	0	2	13	0

Team

NYY

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs NYY.