Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at LAD?

The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 20, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

36-42

LAD

49-28

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California

50,538 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

68.4%

open 69.0% · -0.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

75.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
71.6%
P(LAD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
74.8%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
72.1%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.52

CLV pp

Open price

-259

Close price

-267

Open no-vig

69.0%

Close no-vig

69.6%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BAL at LAD?: The model favors LAD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+22.8pp

best edge · LAD · DraftKings

BAL

no live price

LAD

★ best

-119DraftKings

edge +22.8pp · implied 51.0%

Book	BAL	LAD	Best edge
DraftKings	-109	-119★	+22.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

LAD vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Kyle BradishBAL
5.7± 3.6medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Tommy EdmanLAD
1.7± 2.1low
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.2± 1.2high
Mookie BettsLAD
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Pete AlonsoBAL
2.1± 2.5high
Tommy EdmanLAD
2.0± 2.7low

RBIs

Kyle TuckerLAD
0.8± 1.1high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 0.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.3± 2.9low
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Trey GibsonBAL
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

LAD

.716

OPS

.719

▶

.783

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.345

4.58

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.25

4.50

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.34

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.09

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 3 · LAD 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +22pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.252	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
G. HendersonSS	.220	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. Alonso1B	.245	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. BasalloC	.258	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. TaverasCF	.255	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.226	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Mayo3B	.193	3	0	0	1	0	1	1
J. Holliday2B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.303	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	7	3	0	4	11

Player

.252

.220

.245

.258

.255

.226

.193

.200

.303

.257

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. RogersSP	7.0	1	0	0	2	6	96
R. GarciaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	11
G. WolframRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. KittredgeRP	0.1	1	2	1	1	0	10
Y. CanoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	4	2	1	3	9	135

Player

7.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

135

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.295	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
A. PagesCF	.268	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
F. Freeman1B	.272	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. BettsSS	.217	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
M. RojasSS	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Edman2B	.417	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. TuckerRF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. CallLF	.253	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Freeland2B	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.264	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	2	4	1	1	3	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	6.0	6	3	3	2	6	102
E. HenriquezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	14
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	20
J. HernándezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	7	3	3	4	11	150

Team

BAL

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

LAD vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs BAL.

3 sub-models, blended.