Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 20, 2026

FINAL+2TOR

TOR

38-39

CHC

40-37

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

40,706 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

CHC no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.5%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
53.8%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.5%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.17 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+118DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 43.1%

CHC

no live price

Book	TOR	CHC	Best edge
DraftKings	+118★	-154	+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHC vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 97 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.3± 2.4medium

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

CHC

.702

OPS

.719

▶

.738

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.10

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.75

4.13

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.28

1.31

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 8 · CHC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	8
CHC	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.223	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.306	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.279	4	2	2	1	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
K. Okamoto3B	.229	3	2	1	3	1	0	0
D. VarshoCF	.256	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
D. SchneiderLF	.165	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.232	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. StrawRF	.242	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. KirkC	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. PinangoLF	.283	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. Clement2B	.292	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	9	8	2	1	6

Player

.223

.306

.279

.261

.229

.256

.165

.232

.242

.200

.283

.292

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. CorbinSP	3.2	6	3	3	3	4	101
L. EstradaRP	2.1	1	2	2	2	0	32
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	22
M. FluhartyRP	0.0	2	1	1	1	0	11
L. VarlandRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	28
Team	9.0	9	6	6	7	7	194

Player

P. CorbinSP

3.2

101

2.1

1.0

0.0

2.0

Team

9.0

194

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.286	4	1	2	2	1	1	2
N. Hoerner2B	.235	4	0	0	1	0	1	0
S. SuzukiRF	.269	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Busch1B	.247	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
I. HappLF	.228	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. ShawRF	.252	5	1	1	3	1	0	3
M. AmayaC	.225	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. SwansonSS	.183	3	1	2	0	0	1	0
P. Ramirez2B	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	9	6	2	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	5.1	3	0	0	0	3	78
R. RolisonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. ThorntonRP	0.2	2	3	3	0	1	13
C. ThielbarRP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	13
J. WebbRP	0.2	3	3	3	0	2	27
E. RobertsRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14
Team	9.0	9	8	8	1	6	146

Team

TOR

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

CHC vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs TOR.

3 sub-models, blended.