Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 19, 2026

FINAL+3TB

WSH

39-37

42-30

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

17,134 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

53.1%

open 52.6% · +0.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.4%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.4%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.71

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-122

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

52.6%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+20.6pp

best edge · TB · DraftKings

WSH

no live price

★ best

+126DraftKings

edge +20.6pp · implied 41.5%

Book	WSH	TB	Best edge
DraftKings	-165	+126★	+20.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TB vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 4.0low
Foster GriffinWSH
5.6± 2.1medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.3± 3.6medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 1.0high
James WoodWSH
1.2± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.3± 2.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 1.5high
Junior CamineroTB
1.8± 1.3high

RBIs

Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.9high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.7± 1.3high
CJ AbramsWSH
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium
Zack LittellWSH
2.5± 1.9medium
Steven MatzTB
2.3± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

.743

OPS

◀

.719

.716

.321

OBP

.319

▶

.335

5.36

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.42

4.64

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.92

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.23

7.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

WSH 2 · TB 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
TB	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.265	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. TenaDH	.216	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.284	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. RuizC	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. LileLF	.254	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.225	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.244	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. YoungCF	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.232	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CrewsRF	.186	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	2	6	2	2	0	7

Player

.273

.265

.216

.284

.281

.254

.225

.244

.231

.232

.186

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. PoulinRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	23
M. MikolasSP	6.0	9	5	5	1	2	85
Team	8.0	10	5	5	1	3	108

Player

P. PoulinRP

2.0

M. MikolasSP

6.0

Team

8.0

108

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.320	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.275	4	1	1	3	1	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.268	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Caminero3B	.276	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.199	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. SimpsonLF	.259	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.236	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.215	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.247	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	5	10	5	2	1	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. JaxRP	5.0	4	2	2	0	5	69
S. MatzSP	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	25
K. KellyRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	6	2	2	0	7	126

Team

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TB vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.