San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 17, 2026

FINAL+2SF

31-43

ATL

46-27

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

35,449 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATL no-vig %

56.3%

open 58.3% · -1.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
57.9%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.3%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+33.2pp

best edge · ATL · DraftKings

no live price

ATL

★ best

+255DraftKings

edge +33.2pp · implied 26.5%

Book	SF	ATL	Best edge
DraftKings	-359	+255★	+33.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

ATL vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

133

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium
Logan WebbSF
5.3± 1.8low

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Jung Hoo LeeSF
1.4± 1.3high
Luis ArraezSF
1.4± 1.0high

Total bases

Bryce EldridgeSF
2.4± 2.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
2.1± 2.1high
Casey SchmittSF
2.1± 2.3high

RBIs

Bryce EldridgeSF
0.8± 1.1high
Drake BaldwinATL
0.7± 0.8high
Matt ChapmanSF
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Adrian HouserSF
2.9± 2.7low
Landen RouppSF
2.8± 2.5medium
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

ATL

.731

OPS

.719

▶

.740

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.318

4.16

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.97

4.49

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.34

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

SF 7 · ATL 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SF	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	7
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	5

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Arraez2B	.326	4	2	2	4	1	1	0
B. EldridgeDH	.319	5	1	1	1	1	0	1
M. Chapman3B	.252	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Devers1B	.240	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
J. LeeRF	.325	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.229	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. SchmittDH	.283	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
D. GilbertCF	.219	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. HaaseC	.226	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. CoxCF	.400	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	7	9	7	3	3	6

Player

.326

.319

.252

.240

.325

.229

.283

.219

.226

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WhisenhuntSP	5.0	6	2	2	2	2	85
J. BrubakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	15
S. HentgesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
R. WalkerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
M. GageRP	0.1	4	3	3	0	1	23
T. BeckRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	12	5	5	2	7	162

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

9.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.259	4	1	1	2	1	1	0
D. BaldwinC	.298	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. Olson1B	.276	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
O. Albies2B	.278	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.211	5	0	3	1	0	0	1
E. WhiteCF	.230	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.281	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. LeonC	.091	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.283	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
H. KimSS	.085	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Tellez1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CamargoC	.500	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		38	5	12	4	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RitchieSP	5.0	5	5	5	3	4	90
C. CarrascoRP	4.0	4	2	2	0	2	55
Team	9.0	9	7	7	3	6	145

Team

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

ATL vs SF.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs SF.

3 sub-models, blended.