Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TOR?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 13, 2026

FINAL+2NYY

NYY

42-27

TOR

34-37

Rogers Centre · Toronto, Ontario

42,364 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TOR spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TOR no-vig %

46.8%

open 45.8% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TOR favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
34.1%
P(TOR win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
31.3%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
34.6%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.44 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at TOR?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+19.0pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+118DraftKings

edge +19.0pp · implied 43.1%

TOR

no live price

Book	NYY	TOR	Best edge
DraftKings	+118★	-154	+19.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.4± 3.0low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low

Hits

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.3± 0.8high
Cody BellingerNYY
1.1± 1.2high
Anthony VolpeNYY
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.4± 1.8high
Ben RiceNYY
2.0± 2.0high
Brandon ValenzuelaTOR
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.9± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
2.8± 2.7medium
Simeon Woods RichardsonTOR
2.8± 3.3low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.772

OPS

◀

.719

.702

.332

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.17

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.10

3.34

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.13

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

8.9

K / 9

8.5

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · TOR 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2	3
TOR	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Rice1B	.291	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. DominguezDH	.206	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. BellingerLF	.270	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
P. Goldschmidt1B	.285	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. JonesRF	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.259	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. McMahon3B	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J.C. EscarraC	.178	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VolpeSS	.194	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	5	3	2	2	9

Player

.291

.206

.270

.285

.229

.238

.259

.211

.178

.000

.194

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SchlittlerSP	7.0	6	1	1	4	7	101
F. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	24
D. BednarRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
Team	9.0	6	1	1	7	11	138

Player

C. SchlittlerSP

7.0

101

F. CruzRP

1.0

D. BednarRP

1.0

Team

9.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.203	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
N. LukesRF	.298	4	0	0	0	0	1	3
K. Okamoto3B	.231	3	1	1	1	1	1	1
J. SanchezRF	.292	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. Clement2B	.305	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ValenzuelaC	.254	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
Y. PinangoLF	.299	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
C. McAdoo2B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GimenezSS	.222	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.248	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	6	1	1	7	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. GausmanSP	7.0	1	1	1	2	7	105
T. RogersRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	22
L. VarlandRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	13
Team	9.0	5	3	3	2	9	140

Team

NYY

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.