Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Jun 9, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

32-34

34-32

Petco Park · San Diego, California

40,469 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SD no-vig %

48.5%

open 50.0% · -1.5

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.5%
P(SD win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.4%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.38 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.48

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-110

Close price

+101

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

47.5%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SD vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 70 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.1± 2.8low
Michael KingSD
4.8± 2.9medium
Griffin CanningSD
4.6± 2.4low

Hits

Samad TaylorSD
1.4± 1.1low
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.3± 1.4high
Blake DunnCIN
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jackson MerrillSD
2.0± 2.0high
JJ BledayCIN
1.9± 1.9high
Manny MachadoSD
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 2.1high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Griffin CanningSD
3.4± 3.2low
Chris PaddackCIN
3.1± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.707

OPS

◀

.719

.656

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.292

4.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.63

Team ERA

4.19

▶

3.90

1.47

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 5 · SD 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R
CIN	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	5
SD	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3

Final play

“End of the 11th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DunnRF	.290	5	1	1	0	0	1	2
J. BledayLF	.269	6	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.254	4	1	1	2	1	2	2
N. LoweDH	.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
S. SteerLF	.258	6	1	0	0	0	0	3
E. SuarezDH	.203	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.209	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
T. StephensonC	.212	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
E. Arroyo2B	.227	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. MyersCF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.191	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.175	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		42	5	8	4	1	8	16

Player

.290

.269

.254

.250

.258

.203

.209

.212

.227

.269

.191

.175

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BurnsSP	5.1	6	2	2	2	7	105
B. BurkeRP	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	14
C. FergusonRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	3
T. SantillanRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
S. MollRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	13
T. AntoneRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	16
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	11.0	12	3	2	4	13	176

Player

C. BurnsSP

5.1

105

1.2

0.1

1.0

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

11.0

176

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.278	6	1	4	0	0	0	0
J. MerrillCF	.202	6	1	2	1	0	0	1
M. Machado3B	.171	5	0	2	1	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.223	5	1	0	0	0	0	3
W. WagnerDH	.500	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
S. TaylorLF	.364	4	0	2	1	0	1	2
B. JohnsonRF	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.154	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Song2B	.194	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. France1B	.266	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. AndujarDH	.255	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		43	3	12	3	0	4	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. GiolitoSP	4.0	2	2	1	5	3	85
D. MorganRP	1.2	2	0	0	1	4	29
A. MorejonRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	3	34
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	26
M. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	2	17
Y. MatsuiRP	1.0	1	2	1	0	1	14
Team	11.0	8	5	2	8	16	219

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SD vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

SD vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.