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FINAL+6LAA

CHW

17-20

LAA

15-23

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

23,338 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

LAA spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

LAA no-vig %

48.9%

open 48.9%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.7%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jose SorianoLAA
6.7± 3.3low
Reid DetmersLAA
6.3± 3.1low
Davis MartinCHW
6.1± 3.1low

Hits

Chase MeidrothCHW
1.1± 0.6high
Mike TroutLAA
1.1± 0.6high
Nolan SchanuelLAA
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Mike TroutLAA
2.1± 1.7high
Drew RomoCHW
2.0± 4.5low
Jorge SolerLAA
2.0± 1.5high

RBIs

Munetaka MurakamiCHW
0.8± 1.3high
Jorge SolerLAA
0.8± 1.0high
Drew RomoCHW
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Anthony KayCHW
2.7± 3.5low
Reid DetmersLAA
2.7± 2.3low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.3± 1.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

CHW 2 · LAA 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
LAA	0	5	0	2	0	0	0	1	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

MLBWed, May 6FinalSeriesLAA win series 2-1VegasCHW -113

Recap · MLB

os Angeles Angels held off Chicago White Sox, 8–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAA +1.5 cashed (CHW lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CHW · LAA

CHW

17-20

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	OPS
S. Antonacci★LF	0-3	0	1	0.000
M. Murakami★1B	0-4	0	0	0.000
M. Vargas★3B	0-4	0	0	0.000
C. Montgomery★SS	1-4	1	0	0.500
C. Meidroth★2B	2-3	1	0	1.417
A. Benintendi★LF	0-2	0	1	0.333
J. Kelenic★RF	0-1	0	0	0.500
T. Peters★CF	0-2	0	0	0.000
D. Romo★C	0-2	0	0	0.500
R. GrichukLF	0-2	0	0	0.000
D. HillRF	0-1	0	0	0.000
L. AcunaCF	1-1	0	0	2.000
Team	4-29	2	2	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
N. Schultz★SP	3.2	7	7	3
O. BidoRP	2.1	0	0	0
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	1
G. TaylorRP	1.0	1	0	1
Team	8.0	8	7	5

LAA

15-23

Player	H-AB	R	RBI	HR	OPS
Z. Neto★SS	1-2	2	2	0	1.250
M. Trout★CF	1-5	0	1	0	0.400
V. Grissom★2B	0-3	0	0	0	0.250
J. Soler★RF	1-1	1	1	0	2.000
J. Adell★RF	0-3	0	1	0	0.000
O. Peraza★2B	1-4	0	0	0	0.500
N. Schanuel★1B	1-4	2	0	0	0.500
T. d'Arnaud★C	1-2	1	3	1	2.500
B. Teodosio★LF	2-3	2	0	0	1.417
S. RiveroC	0-2	0	0	0	0.000
Team	8-29	8	8	1	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
W. Urena★SP	6.0	2	1	5
B. SuterRP	0.2	1	1	0
D. PomeranzRP	0.1	0	0	1
C. SilsethRP	2.0	1	0	4
Team	9.0	4	2	10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

LAA win series 2-1

May 5

CHW6@

LAA0

May 6

CHW3@

LAA4

May 6

CHW2@

LAA8today

Season series

CHW win series 4-2

Apr 27

LAA7@

CHW8

Apr 28

LAA2@

CHW5

Apr 29

LAA2@

CHW3

May 5

CHW6@

LAA0

May 6

CHW3@

LAA4

May 6

CHW2@

LAA8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHW -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHW-11353%

LAA-10752%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗SpreadBet CHW -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHW ↔ LAA

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CHW

L. Acuna

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

N. Schultz

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 7 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

LAA

T. d'Arnaud

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

W. Urena

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

How it ended

LAA beat CHW 8-2. Biggest WP swing of the night came in the bottom 2nd inning (28pp).

Win probability

LAA vs CHW

Score progression

1 lead change

CHW2

LAA8

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHWBottom 1st Inning · 0-0

+8pp→ 44% WP

Trout · fouled out to first.

LAABottom 2nd Inning · 1-0

+11pp→ 53% WP

Soler · singled to center.

LAABottom 2nd Inning · 1-3

+28pp→ 76% WP

d'Arnaud homered to left (396 feet), Soler scored and Schanuel scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2
LAA	0	5	0	2	0	0	0	1	—	8

Period scoring

CHW won 1 · LAA won 3

Inn 1

Inn 2

Benintendi 1

Neto 1

Inn 3

Inn 4

Soler 1

Inn 5

Inn 6

Inn 7

Antonacci 1

Inn 8

Neto 1

Inn 9

CHW

LAA

Game flow · key plays

B2
Neto tripled to right, Teodosio scored.
CHW 1·LAA 4
+7pp
B2
d'Arnaud homered to left (396 feet), Soler scored and Schanuel scored.
CHW 1·LAA 3
+28pp
B2
Soler singled to center.
CHW 1·LAA 0
+11pp
T2
Meidroth singled to right, Montgomery to third.
CHW 0·LAA 0
−6pp
T2
Montgomery doubled to left.
CHW 0·LAA 0
−6pp
B1
Trout fouled out to first.
CHW 0·LAA 0
−8pp

Team stats

CHW

Away

Stat

LAA

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

CHW -1.5·O/U 9·CHW -113/LAA -107

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

50.7%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.9%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.1%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen