Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at LAA?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+6CHW

CHW

17-18

LAA

13-23

Angel Stadium · Anaheim, California

26,262 attended

Line movement

98 snapshots

LAA spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

LAA no-vig %

59.0%

open 59.3% · -0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · LAA favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(LAA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.4%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.8%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.32

CLV pp

Open price

+135

Close price

+133

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

41.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHW at LAA?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

LAA vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
5.8± 1.8medium

Hits

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.2± 0.9low
Donovan WaltonLAA
1.2± 1.2high
Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.4high

Total bases

Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.2± 2.1low
Donovan WaltonLAA
2.2± 2.0high
Zach NetoLAA
2.2± 2.5high

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
1.0± 1.7low
Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.8± 3.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
2.6± 2.1medium
Reid DetmersLAA
2.5± 2.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

LAA

.729

OPS

◀

.719

.721

.319

OBP

.319

.320

4.64

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.57

4.41

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.65

1.34

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

CHW 6 · LAA 0 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAA +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	0	6
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AntonacciLF	.273	4	2	2	0	0	1	1
M. Murakami1B	.240	4	3	3	2	1	1	0
M. Vargas3B	.228	5	1	2	1	1	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.226	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
C. Meidroth2B	.264	5	0	1	1	0	0	3
A. BenintendiDH	.229	5	0	4	1	0	0	0
J. KelenicRF	.364	5	0	3	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RomoC	.214	4	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. GrichukDH	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HillRF	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		42	6	16	6	2	3	9

Player

.273

.240

.228

.226

.264

.229

.364

.273

.214

.000

.256

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	7.0	5	0	0	0	10	85
S. NewcombRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	28
Team	9.0	5	0	0	0	14	113

Player

D. MartinSP

7.0

S. NewcombRP

2.0

Team

9.0

113

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.210	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. TroutCF	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Schanuel1B	.256	4	0	2	0	0	0	2
J. SolerDH	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. Moncada3B	.176	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AdellRF	.269	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. d'ArnaudC	.182	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. Frazier2B	.246	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.280	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	5	0	0	0	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SorianoSP	4.0	8	5	5	3	5	88
M. FarrisRP	4.0	7	1	1	0	3	58
B. SuterRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	16	6	6	3	9	161

Team

CHW

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

LAA vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

LAA vs CHW.

3 sub-models, blended.