Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at PIT?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Box Score — May 2, 2026

FINAL+10PIT

CIN

20-13

717

PIT

18-16

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

23,763 attended

Line movement

104 snapshots

PIT spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PIT no-vig %

55.9%

open 56.3% · -0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PIT favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
53.9%
P(PIT win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.2%
P(PIT win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.2%
P(PIT win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.55 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.37

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+117

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

44.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at PIT?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

PIT vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.3± 2.8medium
Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.5± 2.4medium

Hits

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
1.4± 1.0high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.7high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryan ReynoldsPIT
2.6± 3.1high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.6high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 2.1high
Bryan ReynoldsPIT
0.9± 1.2high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Mitch KellerPIT
3.4± 2.7medium
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 1.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

PIT

.701

OPS

.719

▶

.744

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.22

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.01

4.53

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.17

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.31

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

CIN 7 · PIT 17 (by 10)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PIT +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	2	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	7
PIT	5	5	0	5	0	0	0	2	17

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.202	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.308	4	3	2	2	1	1	1
E. De La CruzSS	.277	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.260	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. LoweDH	.288	4	0	2	3	0	0	2
S. SteerLF	.243	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.196	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
T. StephensonC	.188	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.119	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. HindsRF	.121	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	7	11	6	2	2	13

Player

.202

.308

.277

.260

.288

.243

.196

.188

.119

.121

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LowderSP	1.1	5	8	8	4	1	52
C. PhillipsRP	0.0	0	2	2	4	0	21
S. MollRP	1.2	2	0	0	1	2	40
B. BurkeRP	1.0	6	5	5	1	2	39
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	14
J. FrancoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	17
J. TrevinoC	2.0	5	2	2	0	0	28
Team	8.0	19	17	17	11	9	211

Player

1.1

0.0

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

211

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.257	6	2	2	1	0	0	2
B. Lowe2B	.250	1	3	1	1	0	4	0
B. ReynoldsLF	.264	3	3	2	1	0	2	1
R. O'HearnRF	.316	4	3	2	3	0	1	2
N. Gonzales3B	.336	5	1	2	2	0	1	1
M. OzunaDH	.185	5	3	3	3	0	1	2
S. Horwitz1B	.250	5	0	2	3	0	1	0
K. GriffinSS	.260	5	1	4	2	0	1	0
H. DavisC	.162	6	0	0	1	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.208	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MangumLF	.271	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. CookRF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		42	17	19	17	0	11	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. MlodzinskiSP	5.2	8	5	5	2	10	101
C. DevenskiRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	6
Y. RamirezRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	15
G. SotoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	11	7	7	2	13	129

Team

CIN

PIT

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

PIT vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PIT vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.