Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at KC?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 2, 2026

FINAL+4MIN

MIN

2-4

3-3

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

11,694 attended

Line movement

15 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

KC no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
62.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
61.9%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
62.7%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.43 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at KC?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

KC vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.3± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.2± 2.5high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.733

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.87

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.19

4.89

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.84

1.41

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

MIN 5 · KC 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	5
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. MartinRF	.273	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. BuxtonCF	.174	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.217	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. WallnerRF	.174	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.278	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.250	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
J. BellDH	.222	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
R. Lewis3B	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
T. GraySS	.333	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
T. LarnachLF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. OutmanCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	8	4	3	3	12

Player

.273

.174

.217

.174

.278

.250

.222

.211

.333

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	6.0	5	0	0	1	3	100
K. FunderburkRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
C. SandsRP	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	11
T. RogersRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
J. TopaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	6	143

Player

T. BradleySP

6.0

100

1.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.316	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.273	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.200	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.208	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. India2B	.158	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. ThomasCF	.077	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. IsbelCF	.500	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JensenC	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	7	1	0	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RagansSP	6.0	4	1	0	1	8	89
M. StrahmRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	19
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	1	27
S. CruzRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	27
Team	9.0	8	5	4	3	12	162

Team

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

KC vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.