Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at SD?

The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Detroit Tigers vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 26, 2026

FINAL+6DET

DET

1-0

0-1

Petco Park · San Diego, California

45,673 attended

Line movement

4 snapshots

SD spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

SD no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.7%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.1%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.65 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at SD?: The model favors SD, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SD vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.6± 2.9low
Jack FlahertyDET
5.3± 3.4medium
Casey MizeDET
5.0± 2.1low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.2± 1.2high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.2± 1.3medium

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.2± 2.1high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Kerry CarpenterDET
0.8± 1.4high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Jack FlahertyDET
2.8± 1.8medium
Framber ValdezDET
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

.710

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.315

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.10

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.89

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 8 · SD 2 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SD +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	4	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	8
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CarpenterRF	.000	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. Torres2B	.250	4	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. Keith3B	.400	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.000	4	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. Torkelson1B	.250	4	2	1	1	0	1	2
K. McGonigleSS	.800	5	2	4	2	0	0	0
D. DinglerC	.400	5	1	2	3	1	0	1
P. MeadowsCF	.250	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
J. BaezSS	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
Team		39	8	12	8	1	4	10

Player

.000

.250

.400

.000

.250

.800

.400

.250

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. SkubalSP	6.0	3	1	0	0	6	74
D. AndersonRP	1.1	2	1	1	2	0	36
T. HoltonRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	11
W. VestRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
Team	9.0	5	2	1	3	7	128

Player

6.0

1.1

0.2

1.0

Team

9.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.500	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. MerrillCF	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. AndujarDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. LaureanoLF	.250	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
F. FerminC	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	5	2	1	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. PivettaSP	3.0	7	6	6	3	4	69
R. MarinaccioRP	2.0	3	2	2	0	2	43
B. RodriguezRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	20
D. MorganRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	19
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	12	8	8	4	10	166

Team

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

SD vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.