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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

52-71

3
2
CHC

CHC

68-53

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
40,044 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 3 · CHC 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT0001001013
CHC0001001002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Fri, Aug 15·Final/SeriesCHC win series 5-2

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Chicago Cubs and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski

RF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CF

2.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT52-71
3
2
CHC68-53
PIT52-71·CHC68-53
PIT

PIT

52-71

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. SimonR. Simon★2B
0-33000011
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-44000001
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
0-44000003
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
0-33100010
SPRINT28.586
A. McCutchenA. McCutchen★DH
1-44011001
SPRINT27.662
J. SuwinskiJ. Suwinski★RF
1-33111100
J. TrioloJ. Triolo★3B
2-44120001
SPRINT28.483
H. DavisH. Davis★C
1-44010001
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33011000
SPRINT27.560
Team6-3232363128
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
5.0311040
E. SiskE. SiskRP
1.0011110
I. MattsonI. MattsonRP
1.2200110
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.1100000
Team9.0622260
CHC

CHC

68-53

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-22000002
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
1-44110002
SPRINT27.457
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-33000010
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-33000010
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
3-33131000
SPRINT29.294
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT28.278
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-22001000
SPRINT28.992
R. McGuireR. McGuire★C
0-22000001
J. TurnerJ. Turner1B
0-22000001
C. KellyC. KellyC
0-11000000
Team6-3030262026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.0311250
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000020
R. BrasierR. BrasierRP
1.0211000
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0111001
Team9.0633281

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Ashcraft
    61 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      31%·97.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      30%·92.0 mph·38% whiff
    • CU
      20%·85.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      10%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
  • I. Mattson
    34 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      74%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Sisk
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      32%·91.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      26%·80.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·77.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.4 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Santana
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SL
      38%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      23%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      15%·90.5 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.8 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • C. Rea
    87 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.4 mph·28% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.7 mph·57% whiff
    • SI
      16%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      14%·88.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      7%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      44%·96.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      44%·89.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      13%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·92.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.9 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.7 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Brasier
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • SL
      38%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      31%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·94.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Palencia
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • FF
      67%·100.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·91.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

6

3

Runs

2

1

Errors

0

Current series

CHC win series 5-2

Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2today
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4

Season series

CHC lead series 5-3

Apr 29CHCCHC9@PITPIT0
Apr 30CHCCHC3@PITPIT4
May 1CHCCHC8@PITPIT3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Jun 13PITPIT2@CHCCHC1
Jun 14PITPIT1@CHCCHC2
Jun 15PITPIT2@CHCCHC3
Aug 15PITPIT3@CHCCHC2today
Aug 16PITPIT1@CHCCHC3
Aug 17PITPIT3@CHCCHC4
Sep 15CHCCHC4@PITPIT0
Sep 16CHCCHC4@PITPIT1
Sep 17CHCCHC8@PITPIT4

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 40pp · Top 9th Inning

PITPIT
J. Suwinski

J. Suwinski

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 3 H

CHCCHC
P. Crow-Armstrong

P. Crow-Armstrong

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat CHC 3-2. Suwinski's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

CHC vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 7th Inning · 2-1
+22pp→ 56% WP

Kiner-Falefa · doubled to center, Triolo scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 3-2
+40pp→ 77% WP

Suwinski · homered to left center (376 feet).

PITBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+30pp→ 94% WP

Hoerner · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT0001001013
CHC0001001002

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · CHC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

McCutchen 1

Crow-Armstrong 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Kiner-Falefa 1

Shaw 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Suwinski 1

PIT
CHC

Play-by-play · 534 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  3. B9

    Swanson grounded out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

    −6pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  7. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Dansby Swanson

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  8. B9

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  9. B9

    Hoerner flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

    −30pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  12. B9

    Crow-Armstrong caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  13. B9

    Crow-Armstrong caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  15. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Nico Hoerner

    · ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  16. B9

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  17. B9

    Crow-Armstrong singled to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

    +11pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  22. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Pete Crow-Armstrong

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  25. T9

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  26. T9

    Davis flied out to center.

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  29. T9

    Daniel Palencia pitches to Henry Davis

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

  30. T9

    ·

    PIT 3·CHC 2

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

3

Runs

2

6

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

11

TB

8

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

8

K

6

8

LOB

10

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 12 players in cohort
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jared TrioloPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.7%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    63.5%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.0%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.62 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 17, 25sim 97
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 97
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 26, 25sim 96
    115
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 16, 25sim 96
    231
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 96
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 5, 25sim 94
    243
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs