• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+4ATH
ATH

ATH

45-62

5
1
HOU

HOU

60-45

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
36,213 attended

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 5 · HOU 1 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH1000010035
HOU0000010001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sat, Jul 26·Final/SeriesATH wins series 4-2

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Houston Astros and beat them, 5–1.

ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Shea Langeliers

Shea Langeliers

C

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH45-62
5
1
HOU60-45
ATH45-62·HOU60-45
ATH

ATH

45-62

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-55113102
SPRINT26.530
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-44120012
SPRINT26.632
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-55011001
SPRINT27.148
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
1-44111100
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-33000011
M. AndujarM. Andujar★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT26.530
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
1-22010001
M. SchuemannM. Schuemann★SS
0-44100001
L. UriasL. Urias★2B
0-33100010
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
0-22000002
Team7-35355752410
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
4.1200440
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.2211010
S. NewcombS. NewcombRP
2.0000140
M. MillerM. MillerRP
1.0000010
Team9.04115100
HOU

HOU

60-45

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-33010012
SPRINT27.867
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
1-22110021
SPRINT25.920
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
C. McCormickC. McCormick★LF
0-22001000
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.428
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-33000002
C. HummelC. Hummel★LF
0-22000011
Z. ShortZ. Short★SS
0-22000011
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
0-11000001
V. CaratiniV. CaratiniC
0-11000000
Team4-28281410510
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrownH. Brown★SP
5.0411250
B. SousaB. SousaRP
1.0111111
B. KingB. KingRP
1.0000020
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0000000
H. NerisH. NerisRP
1.0230121
Team9.07524102

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    95 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      36%·90.8 mph·31% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.5 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      16%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·88.2 mph·13% whiff
    • SL
      14%·79.5 mph·0% whiff
  • S. Newcomb
    20 pitches·45% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SV
      25%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      20%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.2 mph·— whiff
  • J. Sterner
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      53%·93.8 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      26%·81.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Miller
    19 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      58%·102.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      32%·88.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·94.5 mph·50% whiff

HOU

  • H. Brown
    98 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      36%·95.3 mph·16% whiff
    • FF
      24%·96.2 mph·38% whiff
    • SL
      16%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      15%·82.8 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.3 mph·33% whiff
  • B. Sousa
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      68%·84.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      32%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Neris
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      52%·91.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      20%·82.2 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      4%·86.8 mph·100% whiff
  • B. King
    12 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      58%·92.9 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.9 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      8%·93.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SL
      57%·85.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      43%·97.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

4

5

Runs

1

0

Errors

2

Current series

ATH wins series 4-2

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1today
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1

Season series

ATH leads series 5-4

May 28ATHATH1@HOUHOU11
May 28ATHATH3@HOUHOU5
Jun 17HOUHOU1@ATHATH3
Jun 18HOUHOU13@ATHATH3
Jun 19HOUHOU11@ATHATH4
Jun 20HOUHOU4@ATHATH6
Jul 25ATHATH5@HOUHOU2
Jul 26ATHATH15@HOUHOU3
Jul 26ATHATH5@HOUHOU1today
Jul 27ATHATH7@HOUHOU1
Sep 24HOUHOU1@ATHATH5
Sep 25HOUHOU0@ATHATH6
Sep 25HOUHOU11@ATHATH5

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 24pp · Top 6th Inning

ATHATH
S. Langeliers

S. Langeliers

C

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 4 BB

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

H. Brown

H. Brown

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

ATH beat HOU 5-1. Langeliers's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+24pp→ 65% WP

Langeliers · homered to left center (369 feet).

ATHTop 9th Inning · 2-1
+17pp→ 76% WP

Andujar · flied out to second.

ATHTop 9th Inning · 5-1
+21pp→ 99% WP

Butler · homered to right (403 feet), Schuemann scored and Urías scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH1000010035
HOU0000010001

Period scoring

ATH won 2 · HOU won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Rooker 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
1

Inn 6

Langeliers 1

McCormick 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

3
0

Inn 9

Butler 3

ATH
HOU

Play-by-play · 592 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  2. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  3. B9

    Caratini grounded out to first.

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  11. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Victor Caratini

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  12. B9

    Caratini hit for Matthews

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  13. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  14. B9

    Dubón lined out to shortstop.

    · ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  21. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Mauricio Dubon

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  22. B9

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  23. B9

    Trammell struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

    −1pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

  30. B9

    Mason Miller pitches to Taylor Trammell

    ·

    ATH 5·HOU 1

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

5

Runs

1

7

Hits

4

0

Errors

2

14

TB

5

2

HR

0

4

BB

5

10

K

10

9

LOB

17

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

HOU vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 77 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    5.5± 3.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    64.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    66.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    64.3%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 999 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Aug 15, 25sim 96
    233
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 19, 25sim 95
    264
    25(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 17, 25sim 95
    233
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Jul 27, 25sim 95
    117
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 7, 25sim 94
    43
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Aug 20, 25sim 94
    261
    25(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs