MLBTop 1
CIN 0@NYY 0
+1.1ppmedium
MLBTop 1
SF 0@MIA 0
+2.1ppmedium
MLBTop 1
WSH 0@TB 0
-0.3ppmedium
MLBBot 2
CHW 1@DET 2
+21.4ppmedium
CHAMPION · NBANew York Knicks win the NBA Finals 4-1
CHAMPION · NHLCarolina Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup Final 4-2
TONIGHTGraded picks 1-0 so far (MLB 1-0)
LAST NIGHT · MLBB. Woo (SEA): 7.0 IP · 9 K in a win over BAL — Standout Index 91
LAST NIGHT · MLBG. Jump (ATH): 7.0 IP · 7 K in a win over LAA
LAST NIGHT · MLBS. Burke (CHW): 7.1 IP · 8 K · 1 ER in a win over NYY
TRANSACTION · MLBMariners: Designated INF/OF Miles Mastrobuoni for assignment (Jun 19)
TRANSACTION · MLBAthletics: Agreed to terms with RHP Andrew Bush on a minor league contract (Jun 19)
TRANSACTION · MLBMets: Sent SS Francisco Lindor and OF Tyron Taylor on rehab assignments to Binghamton (EL…
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THE ONE · FANTASY

Projections,
graded

Every weekly xFP projection vs. what the player actually scored — averaged across the season, by position. The model we grade out-of-sample, player by player.

The grade

432 players graded across 2025, weeks 1–18. See how the projections rank against a season-average baseline on the accuracy receipt →

Quarterbacksproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Jayden DanielsWAS · 7w19.3→16.3−3.0
  2. 2Josh AllenBUF · 16w18.9→22.8+3.9
  3. 3Patrick MahomesKC · 14w18.8→20.4+1.6
  4. 4Dak PrescottDAL · 17w17.7→18.5+0.7
  5. 5Caleb WilliamsCHI · 17w17.7→18.7+1.0
  6. 6Jalen HurtsPHI · 16w17.6→18.8+1.2
  7. 7Matthew StaffordLA · 17w17.4→20.6+3.2
  8. 8Lamar JacksonBAL · 12w17.4→17.5+0.1
  9. 9Justin HerbertLAC · 16w17.1→17.9+0.8
  10. 10Bo NixDEN · 16w16.9→18.3+1.3
  11. 11Drake MayeNE · 17w16.9→20.7+3.8
  12. 12Daniel JonesIND · 11w16.7→17.6+0.8

Running backsproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Christian McCaffreySF · 17w16.6→24.5+7.9
  2. 2Jahmyr GibbsDET · 17w16.1→21.6+5.5
  3. 3Bijan RobinsonATL · 17w15.7→21.8+6.2
  4. 4Jonathan TaylorIND · 17w15.0→21.3+6.3
  5. 5De'Von AchaneMIA · 16w13.8→20.2+6.3
  6. 6Saquon BarkleyPHI · 16w13.2→14.5+1.3
  7. 7James CookBUF · 17w13.2→17.8+4.5
  8. 8Chase BrownCIN · 17w13.0→16.6+3.6
  9. 9Josh JacobsGB · 14w12.8→16.2+3.4
  10. 10Bucky IrvingTB · 9w12.5→13.6+1.1
  11. 11Derrick HenryBAL · 17w12.3→16.4+4.2
  12. 12Javonte WilliamsDAL · 16w11.8→15.2+3.3

Receiversproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · 16w15.1→19.6+4.5
  2. 2Drake LondonATL · 12w14.9→16.8+1.9
  3. 3Puka NacuaLA · 16w14.6→23.4+8.8
  4. 4Rashee RiceKC · 8w14.5→18.8+4.2
  5. 5Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · 17w14.4→19.1+4.6
  6. 6Davante AdamsLA · 14w14.0→15.9+1.9
  7. 7CeeDee LambDAL · 13w13.7→15.5+1.8
  8. 8Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · 17w13.6→21.2+7.6
  9. 9Mike EvansTB · 8w12.8→10.6−2.2
  10. 10Nico CollinsHOU · 15w12.3→15.1+2.7
  11. 11George PickensDAL · 17w12.2→17.2+5.0
  12. 12Justin JeffersonMIN · 17w12.1→11.9−0.2

Tight endsproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Trey McBrideARI · 17w13.7→18.6+4.8
  2. 2Brock BowersLV · 11w10.4→14.7+4.2
  3. 3George KittleSF · 11w9.2→14.7+5.4
  4. 4Kyle PittsATL · 17w8.9→12.4+3.5
  5. 5Jake FergusonDAL · 17w8.9→11.1+2.2
  6. 6Travis KelceKC · 17w8.7→11.4+2.7
  7. 7Sam LaPortaDET · 9w8.7→11.9+3.1
  8. 8Tyler WarrenIND · 17w8.5→11.1+2.6
  9. 9Zach ErtzWAS · 13w8.4→9.7+1.3
  10. 10David NjokuCLE · 11w8.4→7.8−0.6
  11. 11Tucker KraftGB · 8w8.0→14.7+6.6
  12. 12Dallas GoedertPHI · 15w7.8→12.3+4.6

Average PPR points per graded week (2025, weeks 1–18). A week counts only when the player was both projected and active. Receipts of how the model did — not picks.