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THE ONE · FANTASY

Projections,
graded

Every weekly xFP projection vs. what the player actually scored — averaged across the season, by position. The model we grade out-of-sample, player by player.

The grade

432 players graded across 2025, weeks 118. See how the projections rank against a season-average baseline on the accuracy receipt →

Quarterbacksproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Jayden DanielsWAS · 7w19.316.33.0
  2. 2Josh AllenBUF · 16w18.922.8+3.9
  3. 3Patrick MahomesKC · 14w18.820.4+1.6
  4. 4Dak PrescottDAL · 17w17.718.5+0.7
  5. 5Caleb WilliamsCHI · 17w17.718.7+1.0
  6. 6Jalen HurtsPHI · 16w17.618.8+1.2
  7. 7Matthew StaffordLA · 17w17.420.6+3.2
  8. 8Lamar JacksonBAL · 12w17.417.5+0.1
  9. 9Justin HerbertLAC · 16w17.117.9+0.8
  10. 10Bo NixDEN · 16w16.918.3+1.3
  11. 11Drake MayeNE · 17w16.920.7+3.8
  12. 12Daniel JonesIND · 11w16.717.6+0.8

Running backsproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Christian McCaffreySF · 17w16.624.5+7.9
  2. 2Jahmyr GibbsDET · 17w16.121.6+5.5
  3. 3Bijan RobinsonATL · 17w15.721.8+6.2
  4. 4Jonathan TaylorIND · 17w15.021.3+6.3
  5. 5De'Von AchaneMIA · 16w13.820.2+6.3
  6. 6Saquon BarkleyPHI · 16w13.214.5+1.3
  7. 7James CookBUF · 17w13.217.8+4.5
  8. 8Chase BrownCIN · 17w13.016.6+3.6
  9. 9Josh JacobsGB · 14w12.816.2+3.4
  10. 10Bucky IrvingTB · 9w12.513.6+1.1
  11. 11Derrick HenryBAL · 17w12.316.4+4.2
  12. 12Javonte WilliamsDAL · 16w11.815.2+3.3

Receiversproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · 16w15.119.6+4.5
  2. 2Drake LondonATL · 12w14.916.8+1.9
  3. 3Puka NacuaLA · 16w14.623.4+8.8
  4. 4Rashee RiceKC · 8w14.518.8+4.2
  5. 5Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · 17w14.419.1+4.6
  6. 6Davante AdamsLA · 14w14.015.9+1.9
  7. 7CeeDee LambDAL · 13w13.715.5+1.8
  8. 8Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · 17w13.621.2+7.6
  9. 9Mike EvansTB · 8w12.810.62.2
  10. 10Nico CollinsHOU · 15w12.315.1+2.7
  11. 11George PickensDAL · 17w12.217.2+5.0
  12. 12Justin JeffersonMIN · 17w12.111.90.2

Tight endsproj → actual · Δ /game

  1. 1Trey McBrideARI · 17w13.718.6+4.8
  2. 2Brock BowersLV · 11w10.414.7+4.2
  3. 3George KittleSF · 11w9.214.7+5.4
  4. 4Kyle PittsATL · 17w8.912.4+3.5
  5. 5Jake FergusonDAL · 17w8.911.1+2.2
  6. 6Travis KelceKC · 17w8.711.4+2.7
  7. 7Sam LaPortaDET · 9w8.711.9+3.1
  8. 8Tyler WarrenIND · 17w8.511.1+2.6
  9. 9Zach ErtzWAS · 13w8.49.7+1.3
  10. 10David NjokuCLE · 11w8.47.80.6
  11. 11Tucker KraftGB · 8w8.014.7+6.6
  12. 12Dallas GoedertPHI · 15w7.812.3+4.6

Average PPR points per graded week (2025, weeks 118). A week counts only when the player was both projected and active. Receipts of how the model did — not picks.