Connecticut Sun at Washington Mystics
CON
4-15
WSH
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Washington Mystics Tuesday at 9/22 - 7:30 PM EDT. WSH is 4-4 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
43
FG %
44
Season series
Series tied 1-1
WSH88@CON81WSH57@CON68CON@WSHupcomingCON@WSHtodayScouting report
CON @ WSH
Tale of the tape
4-15
Record
8-9
#7
Conf rank
#5
-7.3
Pt diff
-3.6
W2
Streak
L2
3-7
Last 10
5-5
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
53.4%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 20 high confidence
Points
- Sonia CitronWSH17.7± 6.7medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH14.3± 6.7medium
- Shakira AustinWSH12.3± 6.7medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON9.8± 5.3medium
- Shakira AustinWSH9.1± 3.7medium
- Kiki IriafenWSH8.1± 4.5medium
Assists
- Leila LacanCON4.5± 2.7low
- Georgia AmooreWSH4.0± 2.9medium
- Sonia CitronWSH4.0± 2.6medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.8± 1.6low
- Shakira AustinWSH1.1± 1.1medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9high
Steals
- Leila LacanCON2.0± 1.7low
- Ashlon JacksonCON1.3± 1.5low
- Sonia CitronWSH1.2± 1.7medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
WSH
42.9%
FG%
44.8
▶44.3%
27.1%
3PT %
33.4
▶29.9%
79.3
PPG
86.3
▶80.5
18.8
Assists / G
18.0
18.6
13.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
16.1