Recent form
8-2
GS +10.7 vs POR +0.9 margin
GS brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Golden State Valkyries at Portland Fire
GS
GS
28-11
PregameSun, 7:00 PM EDTFox 12 Plus, WNBA League Pass, KPIX+
POR
POR
16-23
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
olden State Valkyries visit Portland Fire Sunday at 8/30 - 7:00 PM EDT. GS arrives on a 3-game win streak (6-2 in their last 8). POR is 3-4 in their last 7.
Vegas opened GS as a 4.5-point favorite with the total at 158.5. POR's moneyline implies a 38% break-even, GS the inverse.
For bettors: the GS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 158.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Team stats
GS
Away
Stat
POR
Home
42
FG %
45
Season series
GS leads series 1-0
Jun 3POR77@GS95
POR77@GS95Aug 30GS@PORtoday
GS@PORtodaySep 19POR@GSupcoming
POR@GSupcomingSep 23GS@PORupcoming
GS@PORupcomingModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
GS -4.5
Half-pt below key 5
Total
158.5
Defensive · -6.5 vs avg
2.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
GS-19866%POR+16438%10· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
4.5
0.0 since open
Total
158.5
-2.0 since open
Scouting report
GS @ POR
StorylineGS riding a 3-game win streak.
Rest going in
GS +1 day
GSStandard
2 days
last game Aug 27
PORStandard
1 day
last game Aug 28
Model edge vs market
Strong edgeSpread
Market
GS -4.5
Model
GS -33.6
Edge
+29.1 pts
Total
Market
158.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
GS -198
Model
GS
Edge
aligned
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
GSmetricPOR
28-11
Record
16-23
#2
Conf rank
#5
+6.9
Pt diff
-4.2
W3
Streak
W1
8-2
Last 10
5-5
78.0
Power score
44.4
#2
Power rank
#9
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Betting line
GS -4.5·O/U 158.5·GS -198/POR +164
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
POR vs GS.
POR is 5-5 recently; GS is 8-2.
26.7%
model · POR win prob
Recent form
- POR5–5+0.9
- GS8–2+10.7
Situational
- POR2d rest
- GS3d rest
- -1.0d differential
GS has 1 more rest day. POR has 2 straight road games; GS has 4.
Model angle
+9.6ppon GS
GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.
- ▲Model confidence+1.5pp
- ▲Venue split+1.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-1.1pp
Players to watch
- Carla LeitePOR17.0points · ±8.6
Carla Leite · 17 pts · last-10 17.9 vs season 15.7.
- Bridget CarletonPOR14.8points · ±6.4
Bridget Carleton · 14.8 pts · last-10 15.1 vs season 14.2.
- Megan DiLeoPOR14.4points · ±3.1
Megan DiLeo · 14.4 pts · last-10 15.2 vs season 13.1.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
POR is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-02POR @ GS77–95
Line move
open +180→+170toward POR
The market has moved 1.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
31.6%
ensemble · GS favored
Elo Static
35.7%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Elo Recent
38.9%
P(POR win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
40.7%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
2.09 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Why we like GS.
GS's edge is mostly model confidence plus venue split. Travel burden is the main caution flag.
+9.6
pp edge · GS
5.0u · large
on GS
86.9%
±6.4pp band
5u large — +20.5pp edge, quarter Kelly capped.
Edge
+23.2pp
+13.6pp post-cal
Kelly
61.0%
5.0% sized
Decimal
1.51
+20.5pp vs price
Contributor breakdown · sums to 9.6pp · GS over POR
- ▲+1.5ppModel confidence90% conf
GS clears the model's lock threshold.
- ▲+1.5ppVenue split66% conf
GS's venue form is 58.3pp stronger in the recent sample.
- ▼-1.1ppTravel burden58% conf
GS is carrying the heavier road load, so the edge gets a haircut.
- ▼-0.5ppLine steam68% conf
The market moved 1.3pp away from GS since open.
- ▲+0.3ppRest advantage65% conf
GS has 3 days rest; POR has 2.
How we read this game
- Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in GS at POR?
- The model favors GS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
- When is the pick logged, and can it change?
- Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.8pp
best edge · GS · DraftKings
GS
★ best-205DraftKings
edge +8.8pp · implied 64.5%
POR
no live price
| Book | GS | POR | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -205★ | +170 | +8.8 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
POR vs GS.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
145
projections · 110 high confidence
Points
- Carla LeitePOR17.0± 8.6high
- Bridget CarletonPOR14.8± 6.4high
- Megan DiLeoPOR14.4± 3.1high
Rebounds
- Kiah StokesGS6.5± 2.1high
- Emily EngstlerPOR6.1± 3.3high
- Bridget CarletonPOR5.5± 3.1high
Assists
- Carla LeitePOR6.9± 3.1high
- Veronica BurtonGS6.2± 3.2high
- Jordan HarrisonPOR3.2± 1.9low
Blocks
- Kiah StokesGS1.6± 1.6high
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.4± 1.4high
- Ashten PrechtelGS1.0± 1.7low
Steals
- Gabby WilliamsGS1.7± 1.2high
- Veronica BurtonGS1.7± 1.6high
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.7± 1.3high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Team pages
Elsewhere in the WNBA