Connecticut Sun at Minnesota Lynx
CON
2-14
MIN
12-3
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
onnecticut Sun visit Minnesota Lynx Monday at 7/6 - 8:00 PM EDT. MIN is rolling — 7-1 in their last 8.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Season series
Series starts 7/6
CON@MINtodayMIN@CONupcomingMIN@CONupcomingScouting report
CON @ MIN
Tale of the tape
2-14
Record
12-3
#7
Conf rank
#1
-11.0
Pt diff
+13.4
L6
Streak
W2
1-9
Last 10
9-1
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
CON
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
42
FG %
51
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
43.8%
ensemble · CON favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs CON.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
125
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Olivia MilesMIN19.6± 7.7medium
- Natasha HowardMIN17.9± 6.5medium
- Courtney WilliamsMIN16.3± 7.0medium
Rebounds
- Aneesah MorrowCON10.2± 5.1medium
- Natasha HowardMIN7.4± 3.6medium
- Nia CoffeyMIN5.9± 1.9medium
Assists
- Olivia MilesMIN5.6± 2.8medium
- Leila LacanCON5.0± 2.8low
- Courtney WilliamsMIN4.1± 2.1medium
Blocks
- Brittney GrinerCON1.4± 1.6low
- Nia CoffeyMIN1.4± 1.4medium
- Saniya RiversCON0.9± 0.9medium
Steals
- Natasha HowardMIN2.0± 1.7medium
- Kayla McBrideMIN1.8± 1.2medium
- Leila LacanCON1.7± 1.5low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
CON
league avg
MIN
42.4%
FG%
44.5
▶51.1%
25.9%
3PT %
33.3
▶39.6%
78.1
PPG
85.5
▶93.1
18.6
Assists / G
18.0
▶22.1
13.8
Turnovers / G
13.0
14.1