Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at PHX?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+8TOR

TOR

3-2

9890

PHX

2-3

WNBATue, May 19FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -7.5

TOR · top performer

Brittney Sykes

G · #20

27.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Alyssa Thomas

F · #25

22.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 1:52

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. CondeF · #10	33	2	1-9	0-4	—	+1	4	2
L. JuskaiteF · #2	23	10	3-5	2-3	2-2	+9	5	0
B. SykesG · #20	35	31	10-19	4-8	7-8	+2	7	6
M. MabreyG · #3	32	30	11-23	6-14	2-2	+7	5	3
K. RiceG · #1	34	15	5-7	2-2	3-5	+13	7	3
Bench
T. KeyF · #7	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	+5	2	0
N. MilicF · #31	10	4	2-4	—	—	-2	2	0
K. NurseG · #11	13	0	0-2	0-2	—	+4	2	0
L. HeldG · #12	9	3	1-2	—	1-1	+1	1	1
Team		98	34-74	15-36	15-18		35	15
DNP: I. Harrison, N. Sabally, T. Fagbenle, M. Fasoula, J. Allemand

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BonnerF · #24	30	13	4-11	0-4	5-5	-9	4	1
A. ThomasF · #25	35	17	6-7	—	5-6	-2	6	8
N. MackF · #4	18	12	6-7	—	—	+4	10	3
K. CopperG · #2	35	18	7-18	0-4	4-6	-14	3	4
J. NogicG · #29	29	13	4-15	2-9	3-3	-19	0	3
Bench
V. AyayiF · #11	12	3	0-1	—	3-6	-1	3	1
N. BrochantF · #1	25	5	2-4	1-2	—	-7	4	0
K. LinskensC · #31	3	2	0-1	—	2-2	-5	2	0
K. WilliamsG · #23	12	7	3-6	1-3	—	+13	0	0
Team		90	32-70	4-22	22-28		32	20
DNP: S. Whitcomb, Q. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

34-74

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

32-70

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

4-22

15-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 20

TOR98@

PHX90today

Jun 27

PHX89@

TOR80

Aug 30

TOR@

PHXupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

1.0pt· 6h

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+26028%

PHX-32576%

47· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗SpreadBet PHX -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

169.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

TOR beat PHX 98-90. B. Sykes paced them with 31 PTS, 7 REB, 6 AST. TOR outscored the other side 25-16 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 90% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 28 REB · 14 AST

GS 66

Bench(4)

10 PTS · 7 REB · 1 AST

GS 1

PHXstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

73 PTS · 23 REB · 19 AST

GS 55

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 9 REB · 1 AST

GS 14

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

TOR4th Quarter · 6:52 · 83-78

+13pp→ 69% WP

Laura Juskaite · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brittney Sykes assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 1:52 · 93-89

+22pp→ 42% WP

Laura Juskaite · loose ball foul

TOR4th Quarter · 1:25 · 96-90

+17pp→ 89% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kiki Rice assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	23	22	28	25	98
PHX	23	21	30	16	90

Period scoring

TOR won 2 · PHX won 1

Mabrey 7

Copper 8

Sykes 11

Nogic 6

Sykes 12

Copper 10

Mabrey 8

Thomas 9

TOR

PHX

Shooting comparison

TOR

PHX

46%

34-74

46%

32-70

42%

15-36

3PT

18%

4-22

83%

15-18

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 409 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 98·PHX 90
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 98·PHX 90
Q4·7.2
shot clock turnover
TOR 98·PHX 90
Q4·29.4
Marina Mabrey defensive rebound
TOR 98·PHX 90
Q4·33.3
Kahleah Copper misses 26-foot three point jumper
TOR 98·PHX 90
−0.8pp
Q4·36.3
Mercury Full timeout
TOR 98·PHX 90
Q4·36.3
Brittney Sykes makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 98·PHX 90
+0.5pp
Q4·36.3
Tempo offensive team rebound
TOR 97·PHX 90
Q4·36.3
Brittney Sykes misses free throw 1 of 2
TOR 97·PHX 90
Q4·36.3
DeWanna Bonner personal foul
TOR 97·PHX 90
−1pp
Q4·46.0
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 97·PHX 90
Q4·46.0
Tempo defensive team rebound
TOR 97·PHX 90
−0.6pp
Q4·48.5
Jovana Nogic misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
TOR 97·PHX 90
−2pp
Q4·53.0
Mercury timeout
TOR 97·PHX 90
Q4·53.0
Noemie Brochant defensive rebound
TOR 97·PHX 90
Q4·53.3
Kiki Rice misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 97·PHX 90
+3pp
Q4·53.3
Kiki Rice makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 97·PHX 90
−0.9pp
Q4·53.3
Alyssa Thomas shooting foul
TOR 96·PHX 90
−2pp
Q4·53.3
Kiki Rice offensive rebound
TOR 96·PHX 90
−3pp
Q4·54.0
Maria Conde misses 1-foot reverse layup
TOR 96·PHX 90
+3pp
Q4·54.6
Maria Conde offensive rebound
TOR 96·PHX 90
−4pp
Q4·57.2
Marina Mabrey misses 21-foot step back jumpshot
TOR 96·PHX 90
+2pp
Q4·1:14
Maria Conde defensive rebound
TOR 96·PHX 90
Q4·1:17
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 2 of 2
TOR 96·PHX 90
−5pp
Q4·1:17
Mercury offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 96·PHX 90
−6pp
Q4·1:17
Kahleah Copper misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
TOR 96·PHX 90
−6pp
Q4·1:17
Kiki Rice shooting foulBIG MOMENT
TOR 96·PHX 90
+12pp
Q4·1:25
Marina Mabrey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kiki Rice assists)BIG MOMENT
·
TOR 96·PHX 90
−17pp
Q4·1:27
Tempo offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
TOR 93·PHX 90
−9pp
Q4·1:27
Noemie Brochant blocks Maria Conde 's 1-foot layupBIG MOMENT
·
TOR 93·PHX 90
+9pp

Betting line

PHX -7.5·O/U 169.5·TOR +260/PHX -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

oronto Tempo went into Phoenix Mercury and beat them, 98–90.

TOR +7.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

PHX

eFG%

shooting

56.1%

48.6%

TOV%

ball control

11.8%

9.9%

OREB%

offensive glass

25.0%

22.9%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

20.3%

31.4%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Natasha MackPHX · F
TS%.70899+
Kahleah CopperPHX · G
USG%.30599
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kiki RiceTOR · G
TS%.67095

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
68.9%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
66.7%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.9%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.04 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

86% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.83

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+250

Close price

+275

Open no-vig

27.4%

Close no-vig

25.6%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at PHX?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.2pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+260DraftKings

edge +8.2pp · implied 26.6%

PHX

no live price

Book	TOR	PHX	Best edge
DraftKings	+260★	-325	+8.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

PHX vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 75 high confidence

Points

Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high
Kahleah CopperPHX
20.2± 8.1high
Brittney SykesTOR
18.1± 10.6medium

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
7.5± 2.7high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
7.0± 2.1high

Assists

Alyssa ThomasPHX
8.3± 3.9high
Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high

Blocks

Natasha MackPHX
1.1± 0.9high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high
Alyssa ThomasPHX
0.7± 0.4high

Steals

Alyssa ThomasPHX
1.4± 1.3high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
DeWanna BonnerPHX
1.2± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · wehoop