Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CAR?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3CAR

PHI

43-27-12

CAR

53-22-7

NHLSat, May 2FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -250

PHI · top performer

Sean Couturier

C · #14

0Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:13
A. BumpLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	12:43
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-2	1	6	0	0	15:51
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	5	3	0	0	15:42
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:37
T. FoersterRW · #71	0	0	-2	1	3	1	2	16:29
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	13:37
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	2	3	1	2	9:31
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	0	2	6	1	2	19:48
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	0	0	0	6	0	2	16:03
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	12:08
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	0	0	0	3	0	14	16:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	21:13
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	10:42
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-2	3	3	2	0	23:57
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-2	2	4	2	0	23:29
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	-1	0	2	2	12	13:15
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	19:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	23	3	20	.870	55:12

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:59
J. BlakeRW · #53	1	1	2	2	3	0	12	14:36
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	8:51
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	18:17
T. HallLW · #71	0	1	2	0	2	0	4	11:43
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	11:56
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	19:24
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	13:48
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:46
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	17:19
L. StankovenC · #22	2	0	3	5	0	0	0	13:17
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	1	1	1	2	0	2	17:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:30
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	0	3	3	0	1	10	17:58
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	20:56
M. ReillyD · #6	0	2	3	0	0	0	2	11:28
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	21:44
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	1	3	4	0	19:36

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	19	0	19	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

CAR leads series 1-0

May 3

PHI0@

CAR3today

May 4

PHI2@

CAR3

May 8

CAR4@

PHI1

May 9

CAR3@

PHI2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+20533%

CAR-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 78 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat PHI 3-0. L. Stankoven led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PHI	0	0	0	0
CAR	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

PHI won 0 · CAR won 2

PHI

CAR

Play-by-play · 358 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·19:33
Travis Konecny hit Sean Walker
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·19:30
Giveaway by Frederik Andersen
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·19:05
William Carrier hit Travis Sanheim
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:58
Travis Sanheim shot blocked by William Carrier
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:49
Garnet Hathaway Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:46
Alex Bump Tip-In saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:44
Christian Dvorak Snap Shot Wide Right
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:43
Garnet Hathaway hit Jalen Chatfield
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:28
Eric Robinson shot blocked by Rasmus Ristolainen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:18
Travis Konecny Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:13
Eric Robinson Snap Shot Above Crossbar
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·18:07
Tyson Foerster hit Jalen Chatfield
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·17:50
Noah Cates shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·17:33
Sean Walker hit Noah Cates
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Porter Martone
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·17:07
Denver Barkey Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·16:54
Jamie Drysdale Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·16:50
Noah Cates faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·16:50
Puck in Crowd
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·16:35
Matvei Michkov shot blocked by Jaccob Slavin
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·16:17
Rasmus Ristolainen Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:58
Sean Couturier faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:20
Giveaway by Porter Martone
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:17
Giveaway by Jordan Martinook
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:12
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:12
Andrei Svechnikov Cross-checking against Porter Martone
·
PHI 0·CAR 3
3rd·15:05
Noah Cates faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
PHI 0·CAR 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +205/CAR -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Philadelphia Flyers, 3–0.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Logan Stankoven · CAR13:240.6460.9%67.0%13:24 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 60.9% CF · 67.0% xGF
Sean Couturier · PHI16:120.3753.1%55.9%16:12 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 53.1% CF · 55.9% xGF
Seth Jarvis · CAR19:300.3057.1%65.6%19:30 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 57.1% CF · 65.6% xGF
Rasmus Ristolainen · PHI24:180.2956.8%74.6%24:18 TOI · 0.29 iXG · 56.8% CF · 74.6% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI19:480.2447.2%57.5%19:48 TOI · 0.24 iXG · 47.2% CF · 57.5% xGF
Denver Barkey · PHI15:300.2342.9%32.5%15:30 TOI · 0.23 iXG · 42.9% CF · 32.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR19–01.000+1.9119–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.91 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI20–3.870-1.3520–3 · .870 SV% · -1.35 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.2%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+205

Close price

+205

Open no-vig

31.5%

Close no-vig

31.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PHI at CAR?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.