Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3VGK
VGK

VGK

25-13-12

63
TOR

TOR

24-18-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, Jan 23FinalSeriesVGK wins series 2-0VegasVGK -122

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights went into Toronto Maple Leafs and beat them, 6–3.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mark Stone

Mark Stone

RW · #61

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

TOR · top performer

TOR
Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies

LW · #23

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
3
VGK25-13-12TOR24-18-9
VGK

VGK

25-13-12

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TOR

TOR

24-18-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

VGK wins series 2-0

Jan 16TORTOR5@VGKVGK6
Jan 24VGKVGK6@TORTOR3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

VGKVGK-12255%
TORTOR+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat TOR 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
VGK2226
TOR0303

Period scoring

VGK won 2 · TOR won 1

2
0

1

2
3

2

2
0

3

VGK
TOR

Play-by-play · 274 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    VGK 6·TOR 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    VGK 6·TOR 3

  3. 3rd·19:01

    Reilly Smith faceoff won against Nicolas Roy

    ·

    VGK 6·TOR 3

  4. 3rd·19:01

    Mark Stone Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (42), Rasmus Andersson (21)

    · ·

    VGK 6·TOR 3

  5. 3rd·18:47

    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Max Domi

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  6. 3rd·18:39

    John Tavares Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  7. 3rd·18:36

    Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  8. 3rd·18:32

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  9. 3rd·18:32

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  10. 3rd·18:30

    Auston Matthews Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  11. 3rd·17:32

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  12. 3rd·17:32

    Off-side

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  13. 3rd·17:16

    Giveaway by Mark Stone

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  14. 3rd·17:00

    Mark Stone Backhand saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  15. 3rd·16:51

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  16. 3rd·16:35

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against John Tavares

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  17. 3rd·16:35

    Goalie Stopped

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  18. 3rd·16:34

    Keegan Kolesar Snap Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  19. 3rd·16:30

    Keegan Kolesar Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  20. 3rd·15:41

    Steven Lorentz Wrist Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  21. 3rd·15:14

    Giveaway by Ben Hutton

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  22. 3rd·15:11

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Scott Laughton

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  23. 3rd·15:11

    Mark Stone Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Barbashev (23)

    ·

    VGK 5·TOR 3

  24. 3rd·15:05

    Giveaway by Jake McCabe

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  25. 3rd·14:45

    Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  26. 3rd·12:37

    John Tavares faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  27. 3rd·12:37

    TV Timeout

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  28. 3rd·12:37

    Tomas Hertl Interference - Goalkeeper against Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  29. 3rd·12:27

    Pavel Dorofeyev Wrist Shot saved by Anthony Stolarz

    ·

    VGK 4·TOR 3

  30. 3rd·11:51

    Bobby McMann Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    VGK 4·TOR 3

Team stats

VGK

Away

Stat

TOR

Home

31

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

21

Faceoffs W

29

15

Blocks

8

18

Giveaways

15

6

Takeaways

2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·VGK -122/TOR +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Calle JarnkrokTOR · C
    SHOT MPH94.596
  • Rasmus AnderssonVGK · D
    DIST MI54.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · TOR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TOR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR