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FINAL+2FLA
WSH

WSH

20-14-5

35
FLA

FLA

21-15-2

Historical comparables

Historical comparables

No comparable NHL games in the historical pool yet.

NHLMon, Dec 29FinalSeriesFLA leads series 2-0VegasFLA -125

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Washington Capitals, 5–3.

FLA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Dylan Strome

Dylan Strome

C · #17

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

FLA
Sam Reinhart

Sam Reinhart

C · #13

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Florida Panthers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
5
WSH20-14-5FLA21-15-2
WSH

WSH

20-14-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
FLA

FLA

21-15-2

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

12

Season series

FLA leads series 2-0

Nov 14WSHWSH3@FLAFLA6
Dec 30WSHWSH3@FLAFLA5today
Jan 18FLAFLA5@WSHWSH2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+10549%
FLAFLA-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat WSH 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH2013
FLA2035

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · FLA won 1

2
2

1

0
0

2

1
3

3

WSH
FLA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 3·FLA 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 3·FLA 5

  3. 3rd·19:25

    Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Luke Kunin

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 5

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Sam Reinhart Goal (21) Backhand, assists: Eetu Luostarinen (13), Aaron Ekblad (13)

    · ·

    WSH 3·FLA 5

  5. 3rd·19:15

    Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  6. 3rd·18:59

    Ryan Leonard Snap Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  7. 3rd·18:21

    Giveaway by Tom Wilson

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  8. 3rd·18:06

    Alex Ovechkin Tip-In saved by Sergei Bobrovsky

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  9. 3rd·17:54

    Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  10. 3rd·17:32

    Giveaway by Alex Ovechkin

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  11. 3rd·17:18

    Giveaway by Gustav Forsling

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  12. 3rd·17:12

    Anton Lundell faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  13. 3rd·17:12

    Eetu Luostarinen Slashing against Trevor van Riemsdyk

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  14. 3rd·17:10

    Jakob Chychrun shot blocked by Seth Jones

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  15. 3rd·16:12

    Takeaway by Evan Rodrigues

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  16. 3rd·16:04

    Mackie Samoskevich Backhand saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  17. 3rd·16:02

    Martin Fehervary hit Seth Jones

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  18. 3rd·15:58

    Mackie Samoskevich Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  19. 3rd·15:40

    Connor McMichael hit Jeff Petry

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  20. 3rd·15:26

    Evan Rodrigues shot blocked by Hendrix Lapierre

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  21. 3rd·15:23

    Uvis Balinskis Wrist Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  22. 3rd·15:22

    Giveaway by Logan Thompson

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  23. 3rd·14:52

    Giveaway by Sam Bennett

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  24. 3rd·14:44

    Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  25. 3rd·14:30

    Giveaway by John Carlson

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  26. 3rd·14:26

    Takeaway by John Carlson

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  27. 3rd·14:11

    Giveaway by Eetu Luostarinen

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  28. 3rd·14:10

    Alex Ovechkin hit Eetu Luostarinen

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  29. 3rd·14:06

    Alex Ovechkin shot blocked by Seth Jones

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

  30. 3rd·14:05

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Anton Lundell

    ·

    WSH 3·FLA 4

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

27

Shots

29

16.7

PCT

16.7

12

PIM

12

31

Faceoffs W

27

21

Blocks

6

15

Giveaways

17

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH +105/FLA -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Gustav ForslingFLA · D
    SHOT MPH100.497

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(FLA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

FLA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    3.5± 1.4high
  • Sam BennettFLA
    2.7± 2.1high
  • Sam ReinhartFLA
    2.7± 1.9high

Goals

  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    0.5± 1.1high
  • Tom WilsonWSH
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Carter VerhaegheFLA
    0.4± 0.7high

Points

  • Aleksander BarkovFLA
    1.1± 1.1high
  • Matthew TkachukFLA
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Alex OvechkinWSH
    1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR