NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8ORL

DET

60-22

105113

ORL

45-37

NBASat, Apr 25FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasDET -1.5

DET · top performer

Ausar Thompson

G · #9

21.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

25.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ ORL

Biggest swing: 21pp · 4th Quarter · 3:23

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	38	23	8-16	2-6	5-5	-7	7	2
D. RobinsonF · #55	28	10	3-8	3-7	1-1	-8	0	3
J. DurenC · #0	27	8	3-10	—	2-2	0	9	1
C. CunninghamG · #2	41	27	8-23	3-10	8-9	+2	5	9
A. ThompsonG · #9	37	17	7-10	0-1	3-5	-10	8	3
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	7	4	2-3	—	—	+1	5	0
I. StewartF · #28	12	3	1-3	—	1-2	-6	3	0
J. GreenG · #31	23	6	2-6	2-6	—	-3	1	1
C. LeVertG · #8	4	2	1-1	—	—	+2	1	0
K. HuerterG · #27	15	0	0-2	0-1	—	-1	1	5
D. JenkinsG · #24	7	5	2-3	1-1	—	-10	2	0
Team		105	37-85	11-32	20-24		42	24
DNP: T. Smith, R. Holland II, M. Sasser, C. Lanier

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	38	25	6-17	2-5	11-14	+6	12	9
F. WagnerF · #22	34	17	7-18	1-2	2-2	+19	5	6
W. Carter Jr.C · #34	37	14	5-9	0-3	4-5	+8	17	3
D. BaneG · #3	38	25	9-18	7-9	—	+9	7	0
J. SuggsG · #4	33	15	5-12	3-8	2-2	+2	3	3
Bench
J. CainF · #8	14	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	+12	1	0
T. da SilvaF · #23	9	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	0	0
G. BitadzeC · #35	11	2	1-3	—	—	0	2	0
A. BlackG · #0	26	8	1-6	1-3	5-8	-12	1	1
Team		113	36-89	15-33	26-33		48	22
DNP: M. Wagner, N. Penda, J. Carter, J. Howard, J. Richardson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

37-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-89

FG %

11-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-33

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

26-33

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

ORL leads series 2-1

Apr 19

ORL112@

DET101

Apr 22

ORL83@

DET98

Apr 25

DET105@

ORL113today

Apr 28

DET88@

ORL94

Apr 29

ORL109@

DET116

May 1

DET93@

ORL79

May 3

ORL94@

DET116

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

215.5

Defensive · -10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-12556%

ORL+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -1.5↗SpreadBet DET -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

215.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat DET 113-105. P. Banchero paced them with 25 PTS, 12 REB, 9 AST. Jalen Duren's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 65

Bench(6)

20 PTS · 13 REB · 6 AST

GS 15

ORLstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 44 REB · 21 AST

GS 75

Bench(4)

17 PTS · 4 REB · 1 AST

GS 13

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

DET4th Quarter · 5:01 · 95-99

+15pp→ 24% WP

Tobias Harris · makes 10-foot pullup jump shot

DET4th Quarter · 3:23 · 101-104

+21pp→ 33% WP

Jalen Duren · blocks Paolo Banchero 's 1-foot driving layup

ORL4th Quarter · 1:46 · 105-109

+17pp→ 77% WP

Franz Wagner · makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	26	28	25	26	105
ORL	26	35	26	26	113

Period scoring

DET won 0 · ORL won 2

Cunningham 8

Bane 8

Harris 9

Suggs 12

Cunningham 7

Banchero 8

Harris 12

Banchero 11

DET

ORL

Shooting comparison

DET

ORL

44%

37-85

40%

36-89

34%

11-32

3PT

45%

15-33

83%

20-24

79%

26-33

Play-by-play · 513 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·7.8
Paolo Banchero defensive rebound
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·11.6
Duncan Robinson misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
DET 105·ORL 113
+0.6pp
Q4·19.5
Jalen Suggs out of bounds bad pass turnover
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·26.4
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·29.8
Cade Cunningham misses 29-foot three point jumper
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·34.3
(00:34.3) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Magic] retain their timeout
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·34.3
Magic Full timeout
DET 105·ORL 113
+1pp
Q4·38.8
Pistons Full timeout
DET 105·ORL 113
Q4·38.8
Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three pointer (Franz Wagner assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DET 105·ORL 113
+6pp
Q4·58.3
Cade Cunningham bad pass turnover (Paolo Banchero steals)BIG MOMENT
·
DET 105·ORL 110
+6pp
Q4·1:07
Wendell Carter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
·
DET 105·ORL 110
−0.5pp
Q4·1:07
Anthony Black enters the game for Tristan da Silva
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:07
Magic offensive team rebound
DET 105·ORL 109
−4pp
Q4·1:07
Wendell Carter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:07
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Jalen Duren
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:07
Jalen Duren shooting foul
DET 105·ORL 109
+4pp
Q4·1:07
Wendell Carter Jr. offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
·
DET 105·ORL 109
+5pp
Q4·1:08
Franz Wagner misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
·
DET 105·ORL 109
−11pp
Q4·1:29
Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:29
Tristan da Silva enters the game for Desmond Bane
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:29
Duncan Robinson personal foulBIG MOMENT
DET 105·ORL 109
+8pp
Q4·1:31
Desmond Bane defensive rebound
DET 105·ORL 109
+2pp
Q4·1:36
Cade Cunningham misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
DET 105·ORL 109
+6pp
Q4·1:46
Duncan Robinson enters the game for Javonte Green
·
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:46
Pistons Full timeout
DET 105·ORL 109
Q4·1:46
Franz Wagner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BIG MOMENT
· ·
DET 105·ORL 109
+17pp
Q4·2:03
Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound
·
DET 105·ORL 106
+3pp
Q4·2:07
Tobias Harris misses 15-foot pullup jump shotBIG MOMENT
DET 105·ORL 106
+8pp

Betting line

DET -1.5·O/U 215.5·DET -125/ORL +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Detroit Pistons, 113–105.

ORL +1.5 cashed (DET lost outright). Total cleared the 215.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Franz WagnerORL · F
DEFL4.399
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
7.4± 4.7high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high
Wendell Carter Jr.ORL
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

ORL

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.9%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

114.2

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

26.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR