NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4LAL

LAL

53-29

112108

HOU

52-30

NBAFri, Apr 24FinalSeriesLAL win series 2-1VegasHOU -7.5

LAL · top performer

Marcus Smart

G · #36

27.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Alperen Sengun

C · #28

30.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 28pp · 4th Quarter · 1.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final / OT

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	45	29	10-22	4-9	5-6	0	13	6
R. HachimuraF · #28	44	22	8-14	4-7	2-4	0	4	2
D. AytonC · #5	33	2	1-3	—	—	-6	6	2
M. SmartG · #36	39	21	5-9	2-4	9-11	+3	4	10
L. KennardG · #10	45	14	4-12	1-6	5-6	-3	6	6
Bench
J. VanderbiltF · #2	15	5	2-5	0-2	1-2	+6	6	1
J. LaRaviaF · #12	15	2	1-4	—	—	+9	2	1
J. HayesC · #11	20	12	5-8	—	2-3	+7	4	0
N. Smith Jr.G · #20	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
B. JamesG · #9	9	5	2-2	1-1	—	+4	0	0
Team		112	38-79	12-29	24-32		45	28
DNP: M. Kleber, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, A. Reaves

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	44	24	8-16	6-10	2-2	+4	6	1
T. EasonF · #17	46	5	2-9	0-4	1-1	+6	4	2
A. SengunC · #28	47	33	15-27	1-5	2-3	+10	16	6
A. ThompsonG · #1	48	26	8-14	0-1	10-13	+6	11	4
R. SheppardG · #15	46	17	6-21	4-13	1-2	-2	4	7
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	8	0	0-2	0-1	—	-4	0	0
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	11	0	0-5	0-4	—	-6	4	0
J. TateF · #8	3	1	—	—	1-2	-9	1	0
C. CapelaC · #30	4	2	1-2	—	—	-11	2	1
A. HolidayG · #0	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	4	0	0-1	—	—	-13	1	0
Team		108	40-98	11-39	17-23		49	21
DNP: K. Durant, J. Davison

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

38-79

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-98

FG %

12-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-39

24-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

17-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

LAL lead series 3-0

Apr 19

HOU98@

LAL107

Apr 22

HOU94@

LAL101

Apr 25

LAL112@

HOU108today

Apr 27

LAL96@

HOU115

Apr 30

HOU99@

LAL93

May 2

LAL98@

HOU78

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

205.5

Defensive · -20.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAL+20533%

HOU-25071%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗SpreadBet HOU -7.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

205.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat HOU 112-108. M. Smart led with 21 PTS, 4 REB, 10 AST. Alperen Sengun's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs LAL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LALstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

88 PTS · 33 REB · 26 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 2 AST

GS 19

HOUstarters 97% of pts

Starters(5)

105 PTS · 41 REB · 20 AST

GS 89

Bench(6)

3 PTS · 8 REB · 1 AST

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU2nd Quarter · 9:06 · 45-40

+22pp→ 47% WP

shot clock turnover

LAL4th Quarter · 13.6 · 101-101

+23pp→ 45% WP

LeBron James · makes 24-foot running jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)

LAL4th Quarter · 1.7 · 101-101

+28pp→ 50% WP

Alperen Sengun · misses 7-foot two point shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	OT	T
LAL	39	24	17	21	11	112
HOU	32	20	23	26	7	108

Period scoring

LAL won 3 · HOU won 2

Hachimura 16

Sengun 11

James 11

Thompson 13

James 4

Sengun 15

James 9

Sengun 12

Smart 8

Sengun 4

LAL

HOU

Shooting comparison

LAL

HOU

48%

38-79

41%

40-98

41%

12-29

3PT

28%

11-39

75%

24-32

74%

17-23

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period

event

player

OT·0.0
End of Game
LAL 112·HOU 108
OT·0.0
End of the 1st Overtime
LAL 112·HOU 108
OT·0.7
Rui Hachimura defensive rebound
LAL 112·HOU 108
−0.7pp
OT·2.0
Tari Eason misses 26-foot turnaround jump shot
LAL 112·HOU 108
−2pp
OT·3.9
Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Deandre Ayton
·
LAL 112·HOU 108
OT·3.9
Rockets Full timeout
LAL 112·HOU 108
−2pp
OT·6.8
LeBron James bad pass turnover (Reed Sheppard steals)
· ·
LAL 112·HOU 108
+3pp
OT·7.4
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 112·HOU 108
−0.6pp
OT·9.4
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 112·HOU 108
OT·9.4
Lakers defensive team rebound
LAL 112·HOU 108
−2pp
OT·11.9
Alperen Sengun misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAL 112·HOU 108
−7pp
OT·24.5
Alperen Sengun defensive rebound
LAL 112·HOU 108
OT·24.5
Marcus Smart misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 112·HOU 108
+8pp
OT·24.5
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 112·HOU 108
−0.9pp
OT·24.5
Tari Eason personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 111·HOU 108
−6pp
OT·28.6
Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointer (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAL 111·HOU 108
+7pp
OT·30.8
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
LAL 111·HOU 105
+2pp
OT·34.0
Reed Sheppard misses 22-foot three point jumper
LAL 111·HOU 105
−2pp
OT·35.5
Rockets Full timeout
LAL 111·HOU 105
OT·35.5
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 111·HOU 105
+2pp
OT·35.5
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAL 110·HOU 105
−5pp
OT·35.5
Lakers defensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAL 109·HOU 105
−6pp
OT·35.5
Reed Sheppard misses technical free throwBIG MOMENT
LAL 109·HOU 105
−5pp
OT·35.5
Marcus Smart technical foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 109·HOU 105
+16pp
OT·35.5
Amen Thompson personal foul
LAL 109·HOU 105
−5pp
OT·35.5
Marcus Smart defensive rebound
LAL 109·HOU 105
−2pp
OT·37.6
Jabari Smith Jr. misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAL 109·HOU 105
−5pp
OT·52.4
Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 109·HOU 105
+5pp
OT·52.4
Marcus Smart makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 108·HOU 105
−5pp
OT·52.4
Tari Eason shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAL 107·HOU 105
−6pp

Betting line

HOU -7.5·O/U 205.5·LAL +205/HOU -250

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers went into Houston Rockets and beat them, 112–108 in overtime. Decided by 4.

LAL +7.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 205.5 OVER by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs LAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Luka DoncicLAL
35.3± 12.2high
Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
LeBron JamesLAL
22.2± 5.8high

Rebounds

Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high
Deandre AytonLAL
9.1± 4.7high
Steven AdamsHOU
8.6± 2.2high

Assists

Luka DoncicLAL
7.6± 3.5high
LeBron JamesLAL
7.2± 2.6high
Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high

Blocks

Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high
Kevin DurantHOU
1.0± 1.1high
Deandre AytonLAL
0.9± 0.6high

Steals

Marcus SmartLAL
2.1± 1.8high
Luka DoncicLAL
2.0± 1.4high
Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAL

league avg

HOU

57.0%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

49.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.4%

114.8

PPG

114.9

114.1

25.7

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

14.1

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR