NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+12OKC

OKC

64-18

121109

PHX

45-37

NBASat, Apr 25FinalSeriesOKC wins series 3-2VegasOKC -8.5

OKC · top performer

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

G · #2

38.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Dillon Brooks

F · #3

21.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 9pp · 2nd Quarter · 2:58

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HartensteinC · #55	23	9	3-4	—	3-4	-3	3	1
C. HolmgrenC · #7	29	10	5-6	0-1	—	-5	7	2
S. Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #2	38	42	15-18	1-3	11-12	+10	4	8
L. DortG · #5	23	9	3-8	3-7	—	-2	6	3
A. MitchellG · #25	32	15	5-20	1-5	4-4	+15	6	2
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	21	8	3-8	2-6	—	+17	6	1
A. CarusoG · #9	22	13	5-9	3-6	—	+16	5	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	1	0	0-1	0-1	—	-2	0	0
A. WigginsG · #21	11	2	1-1	—	—	+8	1	2
C. WallaceG · #22	26	6	2-8	2-6	—	+11	1	2
J. McCainG · #3	12	7	3-8	0-2	1-1	-3	4	1
N. TopicG · #44	1	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		121	45-91	12-37	19-21		43	23

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	37	33	11-21	4-9	7-7	-2	7	1
O. IghodaroF · #11	39	15	6-8	—	3-4	-2	3	4
D. BookerG · #1	39	16	6-16	2-6	2-2	-14	4	7
C. GillespieG · #12	33	7	3-9	1-5	—	-6	10	5
J. GreenG · #4	39	26	8-19	3-9	7-8	+4	5	6
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	22	3	1-4	1-4	—	-14	6	0
H. HighsmithF · #19	4	0	—	—	—	-12	1	0
R. DunnF · #0	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
R. FlemingF · #20	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
K. MaluachC · #10	7	2	1-2	—	—	-6	2	0
G. AllenG · #8	17	7	2-8	2-8	1-2	-16	1	1
A. CoffeyG · #2	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
J. BouyeaG · #17	1	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
Team		109	38-87	13-41	20-23		39	25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

45-91

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

38-87

FG %

12-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-41

19-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-23

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

OKC leads series 3-0

Apr 19

PHX84@

OKC119

Apr 23

PHX107@

OKC120

Apr 25

OKC121@

PHX109today

Apr 28

OKC131@

PHX122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

211.5

Defensive · -14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-37579%

PHX+29525%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗SpreadBet OKC -8.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

211.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat PHX 121-109. S. Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 42 points and 8 assists.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

85 PTS · 26 REB · 16 AST

GS 71

Bench(7)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 7 AST

GS 30

PHXstarters 89% of pts

Starters(5)

97 PTS · 29 REB · 23 AST

GS 75

Bench(8)

12 PTS · 10 REB · 2 AST

GS 2

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

OKC2nd Quarter · 1:04 · 62-53

+6pp→ 87% WP

Alex Caruso · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ajay Mitchell assists)

PHX2nd Quarter · 2:58 · 55-51

+9pp→ 21% WP

Oso Ighodaro · offensive foul turnover

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	33	29	25	34	121
PHX	28	25	26	30	109

Period scoring

OKC won 3 · PHX won 1

Gilgeous-Alexander 9

Booker 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 8

Brooks 7

Gilgeous-Alexander 13

Green 10

Gilgeous-Alexander 12

Brooks 16

OKC

PHX

Shooting comparison

OKC

PHX

49%

45-91

44%

38-87

32%

12-37

3PT

32%

13-41

90%

19-21

87%

20-23

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·5.7
Amir Coffey out of bounds bad pass turnover
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·18.7
Khaman Maluach defensive rebound
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·21.6
Kenrich Williams misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·42.8
Khaman Maluach makes 5-foot dunk (Ryan Dunn assists)
·
OKC 121·PHX 109
Q4·51.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 121·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Kenrich Williams enters the game for Ajay Mitchell
· ·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Nikola Topic enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Chet Holmgren
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Jared McCain enters the game for Luguentz Dort
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Amir Coffey enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Oso Ighodaro
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Jalen Green
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Dillon Brooks
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Jamaree Bouyea enters the game for Devin Booker
·
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 120·PHX 107
Q4·51.3
Collin Gillespie personal foul
OKC 119·PHX 107
Q4·1:02
Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 119·PHX 107
Q4·1:10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 119·PHX 104
Q4·1:10
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 118·PHX 104
Q4·1:10
Dillon Brooks personal foul
OKC 117·PHX 104
Q4·1:17
Jalen Green makes 5-foot layup (Oso Ighodaro assists)
·
OKC 117·PHX 104
Q4·1:25
Chet Holmgren makes 2-foot dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 117·PHX 102
Q4·1:32
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
OKC 115·PHX 102
Q4·1:34
Collin Gillespie misses 15-foot pullup jump shot
OKC 115·PHX 102
Q4·1:42
Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
·
OKC 115·PHX 102
Q4·1:56
Jalen Green makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 112·PHX 102
−0.5pp
Q4·1:56
Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 112·PHX 101
Q4·1:56
Chet Holmgren personal foul
OKC 112·PHX 100
+0.7pp

Betting line

OKC -8.5·O/U 211.5·OKC -375/PHX +295

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 121–109.

OKC -8.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 211.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G
DRIVES18.399
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Ajay MitchellOKC · G
DRIVES14.797
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high
Oso IghodaroPHX
5.5± 3.2high

Assists

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jalen WilliamsOKC
4.8± 2.9high

Blocks

Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Branden CarlsonOKC
0.9± 1.6high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

PHX

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.8

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR