NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13CLE

TOR

46-36

113126

CLE

52-30

NBASat, Apr 18FinalSeriesTOR wins series 3-0VegasCLE -8.5

TOR · top performer

RJ Barrett

F · #9

15.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CLE · top performer

Donovan Mitchell

G · #45

23.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ CLE

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 11:24

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. IngramF · #3	36	17	5-9	0-1	7-10	-19	2	4
R. BarrettF · #9	31	24	7-13	3-6	7-9	-16	2	3
S. BarnesF · #4	32	21	6-14	3-4	6-9	-22	1	7
J. PoeltlC · #19	21	4	1-2	—	2-2	0	6	2
J. SheadG · #23	28	17	6-11	5-6	0-1	-6	1	2
Bench
S. MamukelashviliF · #54	20	3	1-3	1-2	—	-4	8	2
T. Jackson-DavisF · #32	2	2	—	—	2-2	+2	0	0
J. BattleF · #77	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	+6	0	0
C. Murray-BoylesF · #12	20	14	7-8	0-1	—	-15	4	4
J. MogboF · #2	2	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	0
A.J. LawsonG · #0	14	2	1-4	0-2	—	+11	0	3
J. WalterG · #14	28	7	2-5	1-4	2-2	-6	2	2
G. DickG · #1	2	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
Team		113	37-71	13-27	26-35		27	29
DNP: G. Temple

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. WadeF · #32	23	5	2-3	1-2	—	+20	3	1
J. AllenC · #31	28	10	5-7	—	0-2	+8	7	0
E. MobleyC · #4	33	17	6-9	1-2	4-6	+12	7	4
J. HardenG · #1	33	22	8-18	4-7	2-2	+6	2	10
D. MitchellG · #45	31	32	11-20	4-7	6-7	+16	3	4
Bench
L. Nance Jr.F · #22	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
N. TomlinF · #35	2	2	1-1	—	—	-2	0	0
D. SchroderG · #8	13	2	1-4	0-2	—	-2	1	2
M. StrusG · #2	24	24	8-10	4-6	4-4	+8	3	0
S. MerrillG · #5	21	7	1-4	1-3	4-4	+10	4	2
J. TysonG · #20	14	2	0-4	0-2	2-2	-2	0	1
C. Porter Jr.G · #9	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
K. EllisG · #14	15	3	1-1	1-1	0-1	-5	3	0
Team		126	44-81	16-32	22-28		33	24
DNP: T. Proctor

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

CLE

Home

37-71

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-81

FG %

13-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-32

26-35

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-28

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

CLE leads series 1-0

Apr 18

TOR113@

CLE126today

Apr 20

TOR105@

CLE115

Apr 24

CLE104@

TOR126

Apr 26

CLE89@

TOR93

Apr 29

TOR120@

CLE125

May 1

CLE110@

TOR112

May 3

TOR102@

CLE114

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

TOR+29525%

CLE-37579%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -8.5↗SpreadBet CLE -8.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CLE beat TOR 126-113. D. Mitchell paced them with 32 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. CLE outscored the other side 36-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CLE vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 12 REB · 18 AST

GS 56

Bench(8)

30 PTS · 15 REB · 11 AST

GS 28

CLEstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 22 REB · 19 AST

GS 71

Bench(8)

40 PTS · 11 REB · 5 AST

GS 25

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLE1st Quarter · 3:25 · 21-18

+7pp→ 58% WP

Jamal Shead · shooting foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	31	23	22	37	113
CLE	35	26	36	29	126

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · CLE won 3

Barnes 9

Mitchell 8

Barrett 9

Harden 8

Barrett 7

Mitchell 11

Barnes 8

Double 17

TOR

CLE

Shooting comparison

TOR

CLE

52%

37-71

54%

44-81

48%

13-27

3PT

50%

16-32

74%

26-35

79%

22-28

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·20.9
Keon Ellis defensive rebound
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·23.6
Jamison Battle misses 23-foot three point jumper
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·33.6
Gradey Dick defensive rebound
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·35.7
Jaylon Tyson misses driving floating jump shot
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·52.9
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 113·CLE 126
Q4·52.9
Trayce Jackson-Davis makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 112·CLE 126
Q4·52.9
Nae'Qwan Tomlin shooting foul
TOR 111·CLE 126
Q4·1:02
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive foul turnover
TOR 111·CLE 126
Q4·1:02
Nae'Qwan Tomlin offensive foul
TOR 111·CLE 126
Q4·1:17
Jonathan Mogbo makes 1-foot dunk (A.J. Lawson assists)
·
TOR 111·CLE 126
Q4·1:38
Nae'Qwan Tomlin makes two point shot
TOR 109·CLE 126
Q4·2:01
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive foul turnover
TOR 109·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Trayce Jackson-Davis offensive foul
TOR 109·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Trayce Jackson-Davis enters the game for Ja'Kobe Walter
·
TOR 109·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Larry Nance Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
TOR 109·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 109·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Gradey Dick enters the game for Sandro Mamukelashvili
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Jonathan Mogbo enters the game for Collin Murray-Boyles
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Jaylon Tyson enters the game for Donovan Mitchell
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Larry Nance Jr. enters the game for Jarrett Allen
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Nae'Qwan Tomlin enters the game for Evan Mobley
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Keon Ellis enters the game for Max Strus
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Craig Porter Jr. enters the game for James Harden
·
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Ja'Kobe Walter makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 108·CLE 124
Q4·2:01
Max Strus personal foul
TOR 107·CLE 124
Q4·2:04
Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot driving dunk
TOR 107·CLE 124
Q4·2:18
Collin Murray-Boyles makes 1-foot running dunk (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)
·
TOR 107·CLE 122
Q4·2:22
Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
TOR 105·CLE 122

Betting line

CLE -8.5·O/U 222.5·TOR +295/CLE -375

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

leveland Cavaliers held off Toronto Raptors, 126–113.

CLE -8.5 cashed (won by 13). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jarrett AllenCLE · C
CONT9.899
Scottie BarnesTOR · F
DRIVES16.799
Jakob PoeltlTOR · C
TS%69.899
RJ BarrettTOR · F
DRIVES16.498
Donovan MitchellCLE · G
USG%31.998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 155 high confidence

Points

Donovan MitchellCLE
27.5± 7.3high
RJ BarrettTOR
21.8± 4.6high
Scottie BarnesTOR
20.0± 6.0high

Rebounds

Evan MobleyCLE
8.0± 3.5high
Jarrett AllenCLE
7.3± 2.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
6.7± 3.3high

Assists

Scottie BarnesTOR
7.1± 3.8high
James HardenCLE
5.9± 2.8high
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
5.1± 2.5high

Blocks

Evan MobleyCLE
2.1± 1.3high
Scottie BarnesTOR
1.5± 1.4high
Jarrett AllenCLE
1.3± 0.7high

Steals

Chucky HepburnTOR
1.9± 2.1low
Immanuel QuickleyTOR
1.6± 0.9high
Donovan MitchellCLE
1.5± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

TOR

league avg

CLE

54.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.6%

48.1%

FG%

47.0

47.7%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.4

29.2

Assists / G

◀

25.0

27.1

13.0

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR