NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+22HOU

ATL

38-32

95117

HOU

42-27

NBAFri, Mar 20FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -2.5

ATL · top performer

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · #7

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

HOU · top performer

Kevin Durant

F · #7

26.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 10pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:37

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	24	6	2-9	1-4	1-2	-7	8	3
J. JohnsonF · #1	32	14	6-12	2-6	—	-27	5	3
C. McCollumG · #3	25	17	7-11	2-5	1-1	-15	2	2
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	27	21	6-12	1-3	8-9	-14	4	4
D. DanielsG · #5	25	3	1-5	—	1-2	-14	3	1
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	18	2	1-6	0-5	—	+2	2	2
M. GueyeF · #18	18	0	0-2	0-1	—	-17	2	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	19	16	6-8	3-3	1-1	0	6	2
J. LandaleC · #31	20	6	3-9	0-2	—	-18	1	3
B. HieldG · #8	8	2	1-2	0-1	—	+9	0	1
G. VincentG · #4	17	6	2-7	0-4	2-2	-7	3	1
K. WallaceG · #2	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-1	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	3	2	1-1	—	—	-1	1	0
Team		95	36-85	9-35	14-17		37	22
DNP: C. Koloko

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	30	25	9-15	3-5	4-5	+25	3	6
J. Smith Jr.F · #10	35	23	7-14	3-8	6-8	+30	9	2
A. SengunC · #28	32	15	7-11	0-1	1-4	+10	9	10
A. ThompsonG · #1	34	14	5-10	—	4-4	+13	7	4
R. SheppardG · #15	25	14	5-10	4-7	—	+23	4	4
Bench
J. GreenF · #32	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	0	1
T. EasonF · #17	25	10	3-9	1-3	3-3	+15	10	2
I. CrawfordF · #27	6	2	1-3	0-1	—	-7	0	0
C. CapelaC · #30	14	3	1-2	—	1-4	+8	5	2
A. HolidayG · #0	16	9	3-6	3-4	—	-3	1	2
J. OkogieG · #20	19	2	1-2	—	—	-1	3	0
Team		117	42-83	14-30	19-28		51	33
DNP: D. Finney-Smith

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

36-85

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-83

FG %

9-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-30

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

19-28

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Jan 30

HOU104@

ATL86

Mar 21

ATL95@

HOU117today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL+12445%

HOU-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗SpreadBet HOU -2.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat ATL 117-95. K. Durant paced them with 25 PTS, 3 REB, 6 AST. HOU outscored the other side 39-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

HOU vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 64% of pts

Starters(5)

61 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 46

Bench(8)

34 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 27

HOUstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

91 PTS · 32 REB · 26 AST

GS 86

Bench(6)

26 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 20

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

HOU1st Quarter · 2.1 · 27-34

+6pp→ 74% WP

CJ McCollum · bad pass turnover (Kevin Durant steals)

ATL2nd Quarter · 6:27 · 39-47

+7pp→ 33% WP

Jabari Smith Jr. · misses 25-foot three point jumper

HOU2nd Quarter · 8:37 · 35-45

+10pp→ 79% WP

CJ McCollum · blocks Jabari Smith Jr. 's 15-foot pullup jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	27	27	22	19	95
HOU	35	27	39	16	117

Period scoring

ATL won 1 · HOU won 2

Johnson 7

Durant 10

Alexander-Walker 7

Durant 8

Alexander-Walker 7

Sheppard 25

Kispert 12

Sengun 4

ATL

HOU

Shooting comparison

ATL

HOU

42%

36-85

51%

42-83

26%

9-35

3PT

47%

14-30

82%

14-17

68%

19-28

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·13.9
shot clock turnover
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·38.5
Keaton Wallace out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·44.6
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·47.0
Mouhamed Gueye blocks Clint Capela 's 8-foot driving layup
·
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·1:03
Caleb Houstan makes 2-foot running dunk (Buddy Hield assists)
·
ATL 95·HOU 117
Q4·1:07
Aaron Holiday lost ball turnover (Mouhamed Gueye steals)
·
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·1:21
Clint Capela offensive rebound
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·1:24
Isaiah Crawford misses 25-foot running jump shot
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·1:30
Clint Capela defensive rebound
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·1:31
Keaton Wallace misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·1:43
Isaiah Crawford makes 20-foot step back jumpshot (Jeff Green assists)
·
ATL 93·HOU 117
Q4·2:02
Clint Capela defensive rebound
ATL 93·HOU 115
Q4·2:03
Corey Kispert misses 28-foot three point jumper
ATL 93·HOU 115
Q4·2:14
Clint Capela makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 93·HOU 115
Q4·2:14
Rockets offensive team rebound
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:14
Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:14
Mouhamed Gueye personal foul
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:29
Josh Okogie defensive rebound
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:30
Corey Kispert misses 22-foot three point jumper
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:50
Hawks Full timeout
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·2:50
Josh Okogie out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:01
Keaton Wallace enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:01
Buddy Hield out of bounds lost ball turnover
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:18
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:18
Clint Capela misses free throw 2 of 2
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:18
Rockets offensive team rebound
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:18
Clint Capela misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 93·HOU 114
Q4·3:18
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Zaccharie Risacher
·
ATL 93·HOU 114

Betting line

HOU -2.5·O/U 227.5·ATL +124/HOU -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets held off Atlanta Hawks, 117–95. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

HOU -2.5 cashed (won by 22). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 15.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

HOU

55.1%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

47.4%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

114.1

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.1

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.3

Data via ESPN · hoopR