NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+28SA

51-18

132104

SAC

18-52

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesSA wins series 3-0VegasSA -13.5

SA · top performer

De'Aaron Fox

G · #4

16.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Maxime Raynaud

C · #42

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ SAC

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. BarnesF · #40	22	16	6-7	4-5	—	+19	4	3
J. ChampagnieF · #30	24	17	6-8	5-7	—	+11	1	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	22	18	7-14	2-7	2-2	+23	8	3
D. FoxG · #4	22	15	5-10	3-5	2-2	+33	5	6
S. CastleG · #5	22	3	1-7	1-1	—	+11	1	12
Bench
K. OlynykF · #8	14	4	1-4	0-2	2-2	+8	6	3
L. Waters IIIF · #43	23	11	4-8	3-7	—	+18	4	2
K. JohnsonF · #3	20	18	8-12	2-4	0-1	+11	1	1
C. BryantF · #11	20	7	2-8	1-5	2-2	+8	3	2
B. BiyomboC · #18	9	1	0-2	—	1-2	-8	3	0
L. KornetC · #7	19	4	1-2	—	2-2	+6	10	2
J. McLaughlinG · #0	5	3	1-2	1-1	—	+1	0	1
D. HarperG · #2	20	15	6-9	3-5	—	-1	4	5
Team		132	48-93	25-49	11-13		50	41
DNP: M. Plumlee

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	30	10	4-12	1-4	1-1	-19	7	2
M. RaynaudC · #42	42	32	13-25	2-5	4-4	-22	9	3
R. WestbrookG · #18	25	5	2-6	0-3	1-2	-27	1	10
D. DeRozanG · #10	17	2	1-4	—	—	-30	1	1
N. CliffordG · #5	37	15	6-13	3-4	—	-14	8	7
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	25	12	4-8	4-8	—	-12	3	2
D. CardwellC · #32	18	7	3-6	—	1-2	-9	8	2
D. PlowdenG · #29	28	14	5-11	3-8	1-4	-9	1	1
K. HayesG · #3	19	7	3-8	1-4	—	+2	3	4
Team		104	41-93	14-36	8-13		41	32
DNP: K. Murray, M. Monk, D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

48-93

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-93

FG %

25-49

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-36

11-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

8-13

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA wins series 3-0

Nov 16

SAC110@

SA123

Feb 22

SAC122@

SA139

Mar 18

SA132@

SAC104today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-85089%

SAC+57515%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -13.5↗SpreadBet SA -13.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat SAC 132-104. D. Fox led with 15 PTS, 5 REB, 6 AST. SA outscored the other side 39-22 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

69 PTS · 19 REB · 25 AST

GS 68

Bench(8)

63 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 61

SACstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

64 PTS · 26 REB · 23 AST

GS 53

Bench(4)

40 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 30

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	39	39	34	20	132
SAC	22	25	34	23	104

Period scoring

SA won 2 · SAC won 1

Barnes 8

Fox 10

Champagnie 9

Plowden 8

Wembanyama 10

Raynaud 16

Johnson 7

Raynaud 6

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

52%

48-93

44%

41-93

51%

25-49

3PT

39%

14-36

85%

11-13

62%

8-13

Play-by-play · 423 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 132·SAC 104
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 132·SAC 104
Q4·14.6
Dylan Cardwell makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Maxime Raynaud assists)
·
SA 132·SAC 104
Q4·30.0
Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
SA 132·SAC 102
Q4·43.5
Nique Clifford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Dylan Cardwell assists)
·
SA 129·SAC 102
Q4·57.8
Doug McDermott defensive rebound
SA 129·SAC 99
Q4·1:00
Carter Bryant misses 25-foot three point jumper
·
SA 129·SAC 99
Q4·1:16
Maxime Raynaud makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Nique Clifford assists)
·
SA 129·SAC 99
Q4·1:27
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
SA 129·SAC 97
Q4·1:30
Jordan McLaughlin misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
SA 129·SAC 97
Q4·1:36
Kelly Olynyk offensive rebound
SA 129·SAC 97
Q4·1:39
Maxime Raynaud blocks Kelly Olynyk 's 2-foot layup
·
SA 129·SAC 97
Q4·1:52
Maxime Raynaud makes 3-foot driving floating jump shot
SA 129·SAC 97
Q4·2:09
Kelly Olynyk makes running layup
SA 129·SAC 95
Q4·2:12
Killian Hayes bad pass turnover (Kelly Olynyk steals)
·
SA 127·SAC 95
Q4·2:21
Bismack Biyombo makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 127·SAC 95
Q4·2:21
Spurs offensive team rebound
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:21
Bismack Biyombo misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:21
Dylan Cardwell shooting foul
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:41
Lindy Waters III defensive rebound
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:42
Killian Hayes misses running pullup jump shot
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:47
Lindy Waters III bad pass turnover (Doug McDermott steals)
·
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:55
Doug McDermott enters the game for Daeqwon Plowden
·
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:55
Spurs Full timeout
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·2:55
Daeqwon Plowden personal take foul
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·3:01
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·3:04
Killian Hayes misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·3:14
Killian Hayes defensive rebound
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·3:16
Bismack Biyombo misses 7-foot hook shot
SA 126·SAC 95
Q4·3:35
Lindy Waters III defensive rebound
SA 126·SAC 95

Betting line

SA -13.5·O/U 233.5·SA -850/SAC +575

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 132–104. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

SA -13.5 cashed (won by 28). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Stephon CastleSA · G
TOUCHES71.594
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high
Zach LaVineSAC
17.6± 7.7high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Drew EubanksSAC
0.7± 0.8high

Steals

De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Killian HayesSAC
1.2± 1.4high
Julian ChampagnieSA
1.1± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

SAC

55.3%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

27.3

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.5

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR