NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+13DET

DET

49-19

130117

WSH

16-52

NBATue, Mar 17FinalSeriesDET leads series 2-1VegasDET -19.5

DET · top performer

Jalen Duren

C · #0

33.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Bub Carrington

G · #7

25.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowDET ↔ WSH

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
T. HarrisF · #12	27	12	4-11	0-2	4-4	+17	6	6
D. RobinsonF · #55	26	8	3-9	1-3	1-1	+11	3	3
J. DurenC · #0	31	36	13-17	—	10-11	+15	11	2
C. CunninghamG · #2	5	6	2-3	0-1	2-2	0	2	0
A. ThompsonG · #9	27	6	3-7	—	—	+6	7	2
Bench
P. ReedF · #7	13	10	4-5	—	2-4	-7	4	1
R. Holland IIF · #5	15	11	4-5	1-1	2-2	+1	5	0
J. GreenG · #31	5	3	1-5	1-3	—	+2	2	0
C. LeVertG · #8	21	10	3-5	3-4	1-2	-6	3	3
K. HuerterG · #27	22	4	2-7	0-5	—	+11	4	3
M. SasserG · #25	25	9	3-7	3-6	—	+5	1	4
D. JenkinsG · #24	21	15	4-9	2-2	5-6	+10	2	7
Team		130	46-90	11-27	27-32		50	31
DNP: T. Smith

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. GillF · #16	16	2	1-2	—	—	-1	1	1
J. ChampagnieF · #9	29	18	6-11	2-4	4-4	-9	9	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	37	30	12-16	6-8	—	-11	4	2
W. RileyG · #27	37	21	7-13	1-3	6-9	-4	3	1
T. JohnsonG · #12	24	11	3-12	1-4	4-4	-18	4	1
Bench
T. VukcevicF · #00	19	9	4-8	0-3	1-2	-2	4	1
S. CooperG · #13	27	7	3-8	1-5	—	-7	6	6
J. WatkinsG · #5	18	3	1-2	1-1	—	-1	2	4
J. HardyG · #8	32	16	6-15	4-9	—	-12	2	2
Team		117	43-87	16-37	15-19		35	20
DNP: A. Sarr, T. Young, B. Coulibaly

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

46-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-87

FG %

11-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

16-37

27-32

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

DET leads series 2-1

Nov 11

WSH135@

DET137

Feb 6

WSH126@

DET117

Mar 17

DET130@

WSH117today

Mar 19

DET117@

WSH95

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DET -19.5

Between 10 and —

Total

233.5

High-scoring · +7.5 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-210095%

WSH+11008%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DET -19.5↗SpreadBet DET -19.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

19.5

0.0 since open

Total

233.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat WSH 130-117. J. Duren led the way with 36 points and 11 rebounds. DET outscored the other side 37-26 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs DET

Starters vs bench

production by unit

DETstarters 52% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 62

Bench(7)

62 PTS · 21 REB · 18 AST

GS 54

WSHstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 21 REB · 7 AST

GS 60

Bench(4)

35 PTS · 14 REB · 13 AST

GS 27

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
DET	32	31	37	30	130
WSH	32	25	26	34	117

Period scoring

DET won 2 · WSH won 1

Duren 9

Riley 11

Duren 6

LeVert 11

Duren 10

Champagnie 6

Duren 11

Carrington 21

DET

WSH

Shooting comparison

DET

WSH

51%

46-90

49%

43-87

41%

11-27

3PT

43%

16-37

84%

27-32

79%

15-19

Play-by-play · 476 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 130·WSH 117
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 130·WSH 117
Q4·2.8
shot clock turnover
DET 130·WSH 117
Q4·27.4
Bub Carrington makes 14-foot pullup jump shot
DET 130·WSH 117
Q4·34.3
Wizards defensive team rebound
DET 130·WSH 115
Q4·36.0
Tobias Harris misses driving floating jump shot
DET 130·WSH 115
Q4·55.5
Tristan Vukcevic makes two point shot
DET 130·WSH 115
Q4·59.2
Tristan Vukcevic offensive rebound
DET 130·WSH 113
Q4·59.2
Jaden Hardy misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot
DET 130·WSH 113
Q4·1:05
Jalen Duren makes 2-foot running dunk (Daniss Jenkins assists)
·
DET 130·WSH 113
Q4·1:07
Jamir Watkins lost ball turnover (Marcus Sasser steals)
·
DET 128·WSH 113
Q4·1:27
Jalen Duren makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 128·WSH 113
Q4·1:27
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 127·WSH 113
Q4·1:27
Jamir Watkins personal foul
DET 126·WSH 113
Q4·1:46
Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)
·
DET 126·WSH 113
Q4·1:57
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Duncan Robinson
·
DET 126·WSH 110
Q4·1:57
Wizards Full timeout
DET 126·WSH 110
Q4·1:57
Tobias Harris makes 2-foot dunk (Jalen Duren assists)
·
DET 126·WSH 110
Q4·2:02
Ausar Thompson defensive rebound
DET 124·WSH 110
Q4·2:04
Tristan Vukcevic misses 24-foot three point jumper
DET 124·WSH 110
Q4·2:21
Jalen Duren makes driving layup
DET 124·WSH 110
Q4·2:37
Jalen Duren defensive rebound
DET 122·WSH 110
Q4·2:38
Jamir Watkins misses 10-foot two point shot
DET 122·WSH 110
Q4·2:50
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
DET 122·WSH 110
Q4·2:51
Daniss Jenkins misses driving dunk
DET 122·WSH 110
Q4·3:04
Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamir Watkins assists)
·
DET 122·WSH 110
Q4·3:18
Ausar Thompson makes 1-foot layup (Tobias Harris assists)
·
DET 122·WSH 107
Q4·3:38
Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointer (Jamir Watkins assists)
·
DET 120·WSH 107
Q4·3:51
Jalen Duren makes free throw 1 of 1
DET 120·WSH 104
Q4·3:51
Jaden Hardy enters the game for Sharife Cooper
·
DET 119·WSH 104

Betting line

DET -19.5·O/U 233.5·DET -2100/WSH +1100

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

etroit Pistons went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 130–117.

WSH +19.5 cashed (DET won by 13). Total cleared the 233.5 OVER by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cade CunninghamDET · G
TOUCHES9799+
Jalen DurenDET · C
TS%68.898
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Ausar ThompsonDET · G
DEFL3.596
Paul ReedDET · F
TS%65.092

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Cade CunninghamDET
26.1± 9.6high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Tobias HarrisDET
16.3± 7.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Jalen DurenDET
9.1± 3.9high

Assists

Cade CunninghamDET
8.2± 2.8high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Sharife CooperWSH
3.8± 2.0high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Ausar ThompsonDET
1.5± 1.3high

Steals

Ausar ThompsonDET
2.0± 1.8high
Cade CunninghamDET
1.4± 1.2high
Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

DET

league avg

WSH

54.2%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.5%

48.0%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

115.9

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

27.0

Assists / G

◀

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR