NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+11LAC

CHI

27-40

108119

LAC

34-32

NBAFri, Mar 13FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasLAC -13.5

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

19.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Bennedict Mathurin

G · #9

18.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 4:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BuzelisF · #14	34	18	6-18	2-10	4-4	-10	11	2
L. MillerF · #33	36	14	6-14	0-5	2-2	-13	8	3
N. RichardsC · #13	30	10	3-10	1-3	3-4	-1	8	1
T. JonesG · #30	30	21	10-11	—	1-1	-23	1	2
J. GiddeyG · #3	39	20	8-20	4-11	—	-1	11	10
Bench
G. YabuseleF · #28	20	11	4-6	3-3	—	-9	2	0
P. WilliamsF · #44	23	2	0-7	0-6	2-2	+3	3	1
L. OlbrichC · #47	0	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
R. DillinghamG · #7	24	12	5-9	2-3	—	+2	4	4
Y. KawamuraG · #8	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
Team		108	42-95	12-41	12-13		48	23
DNP: J. Smith, I. Okoro

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	33	28	8-22	2-6	10-12	+3	4	3
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	34	10	4-5	1-2	1-2	+10	6	3
B. LopezC · #11	31	11	5-10	1-4	—	+4	7	2
K. DunnG · #8	29	8	4-11	0-4	—	+12	4	6
K. SandersG · #4	26	11	4-8	3-7	—	+2	6	3
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	16	3	1-3	1-3	—	+8	3	4
I. JacksonF · #23	17	8	4-5	—	0-2	+7	7	2
J. MillerG · #22	27	14	6-13	0-1	2-2	+11	3	3
B. MathurinG · #9	28	26	10-19	1-5	5-6	-2	6	2
Team		119	46-96	9-32	18-24		46	28
DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr., C. Christie

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

42-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-96

FG %

12-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

12-13

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-24

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 21

LAC110@

CHI138

Mar 14

CHI108@

LAC119today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+57515%

LAC-85089%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat CHI 119-108. B. Mathurin paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 39 REB · 18 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

25 PTS · 9 REB · 5 AST

GS 15

LACstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

68 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 64

Bench(4)

51 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 46

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 4:06 · 79-78

+7pp→ 33% WP

Rob Dillingham · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	28	29	28	23	108
LAC	33	30	29	27	119

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · LAC won 4

Jones 8

Leonard 10

Dillingham 7

Yabusele 13

Miller 8

Leonard 8

Giddey 7

Mathurin 13

CHI

LAC

Shooting comparison

CHI

LAC

44%

42-95

48%

46-96

29%

12-41

3PT

28%

9-32

92%

12-13

75%

18-24

Play-by-play · 469 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 108·LAC 119
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
CHI 108·LAC 119
Q4·14.5
Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound
CHI 108·LAC 119
Q4·17.7
Nick Richards misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 108·LAC 119
Q4·26.7
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 108·LAC 119
Q4·26.7
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Tre Jones
·
CHI 108·LAC 118
Q4·26.7
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
CHI 108·LAC 118
Q4·26.7
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
CHI 108·LAC 118
Q4·26.7
Kobe Sanders enters the game for Kawhi Leonard
·
CHI 108·LAC 118
Q4·26.7
Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 108·LAC 118
Q4·26.7
Nick Richards shooting foul
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·35.7
Brook Lopez defensive rebound
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·39.2
Matas Buzelis misses 25-foot three point jumper
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·40.9
(00:40.9) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Clippers] retain their timeout
CHI 108·LAC 117
+2pp
Q4·40.9
Clippers Coach's Challenge
CHI 108·LAC 117
−2pp
Q4·45.4
Nick Richards defensive rebound
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·47.6
Bennedict Mathurin misses two point shot
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·59.5
Clippers offensive team rebound
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:00
Jordan Miller misses 22-foot three point jumper
·
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:08
Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound
·
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:12
Brook Lopez blocks Nick Richards 's 1-foot alley oop dunk
·
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:13
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:13
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:13
Derrick Jones Jr. blocks Nick Richards 's 3-foot layup
· ·
CHI 108·LAC 117
+0.5pp
Q4·1:26
Josh Giddey defensive rebound
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:29
Bennedict Mathurin misses 11-foot pullup jump shot
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:52
Tre Jones makes driving layup
CHI 108·LAC 117
Q4·1:59
Bennedict Mathurin makes 2-foot running dunk (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)
· ·
CHI 106·LAC 117
Q4·2:03
Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound
·
CHI 106·LAC 115
Q4·2:06
Josh Giddey misses running pullup jump shot
CHI 106·LAC 115
+0.6pp

Betting line

LAC -13.5·O/U 235.5·CHI +575/LAC -850

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off Chicago Bulls, 119–108.

CHI +13.5 cashed (LAC won by 11). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Kawhi LeonardTOR · F
USG%33.399
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Brandon IngramLAC
18.7± 10.3high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
6.6± 1.9high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Josh GiddeyCHI
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

LAC

54.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.9%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR