NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+21MIA

WSH

16-48

129150

MIA

37-29

NBATue, Mar 10FinalSeriesMIA leads series 2-0VegasMIA -15.5

WSH · top performer

Alex Sarr

C · #20

22.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIA · top performer

Bam Adebayo

C · #13

60.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ MIA

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. SarrC · #20	20	28	12-19	4-7	—	-9	6	1
B. CarringtonG · #7	36	12	5-7	0-1	2-4	-20	4	6
B. CoulibalyG · #0	35	10	2-7	0-1	6-8	-19	6	7
W. RileyG · #27	40	22	6-13	4-7	6-7	-10	4	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	23	17	7-12	3-7	0-1	-14	2	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	25	6	3-4	—	—	-5	5	3
J. ChampagnieF · #9	18	8	3-7	0-2	2-2	-7	5	2
T. VukcevicF · #00	7	3	1-3	1-2	—	-11	2	1
S. CooperG · #13	15	6	2-5	0-1	2-3	-2	0	1
J. HardyG · #8	23	17	5-12	3-8	4-4	-8	1	0
Team		129	46-89	15-36	22-29		35	25
DNP: K. George, J. Watkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. GardnerF · #15	26	4	2-4	0-1	—	+15	8	2
B. AdebayoC · #13	42	83	20-43	7-22	36-43	+20	9	3
D. MitchellG · #45	24	12	5-9	0-4	2-2	+16	7	5
P. LarssonG · #9	24	10	3-7	0-3	4-5	+13	2	1
K. JakucionisG · #25	30	5	2-3	0-1	1-2	+10	5	6
Bench
S. FontecchioF · #0	22	18	6-7	3-4	3-3	+6	6	1
K. JohnsonF · #16	19	8	3-6	1-4	1-4	+7	1	0
J. Jaquez Jr.F · #11	28	5	2-5	1-2	—	+15	6	8
V. GoldinC · #50	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	1	0
D. SmithG · #12	23	5	2-4	1-2	—	+7	3	5
T. KeelsG · #8	1	0	0-1	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		150	45-90	13-43	47-59		48	31
DNP: N. Jovic, K. Ware, N. Powell, T. Herro

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

MIA

Home

46-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-90

FG %

15-36

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-43

22-29

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

47-59

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIA leads series 2-0

Feb 8

MIA132@

WSH101

Mar 10

WSH129@

MIA150today

Apr 4

WSH136@

MIA152

Apr 10

MIA140@

WSH117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIA -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+75012%

MIA-120092%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIA -15.5↗SpreadBet MIA -15.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIA beat WSH 150-129. B. Adebayo led the way with 83 points and 9 rebounds. MIA outscored the other side 40-29 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIA vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 69% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 22 REB · 18 AST

GS 67

Bench(5)

40 PTS · 13 REB · 7 AST

GS 16

MIAstarters 76% of pts

Starters(5)

114 PTS · 31 REB · 17 AST

GS 96

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 14 AST

GS 41

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	29	33	35	32	129
MIA	40	36	37	37	150

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · MIA won 4

Sarr 13

Adebayo 31

Sarr 10

Adebayo 12

Johnson 7

Johnson 47

Riley 9

Adebayo 21

WSH

MIA

Shooting comparison

WSH

MIA

52%

46-89

50%

45-90

42%

15-36

3PT

30%

13-43

76%

22-29

80%

47-59

Play-by-play · 538 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 129·MIA 150
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 129·MIA 150
Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
WSH 129·MIA 150
Q4·24.5
Bub Carrington makes two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)
·
WSH 129·MIA 150
Q4·35.8
Kasparas Jakucionis bad pass turnover (Will Riley steals)
·
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·37.2
Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·39.9
Bub Carrington misses 18-foot fade away jump shot
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·48.6
Anthony Gill defensive rebound
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·48.6
Vladislav Goldin misses two point shot
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·48.6
Vladislav Goldin offensive rebound
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·55.3
Trevor Keels misses driving floating jump shot
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·1:08
Vladislav Goldin enters the game for Bam Adebayo
·
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·1:08
Trevor Keels enters the game for Dru Smith
·
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·1:14
Bub Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 127·MIA 150
Q4·1:14
Wizards offensive team rebound
WSH 126·MIA 150
Q4·1:14
Bub Carrington misses free throw 1 of 2
WSH 126·MIA 150
Q4·1:14
Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul
WSH 126·MIA 150
Q4·1:16
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 126·MIA 150
Q4·1:16
Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 126·MIA 149
Q4·1:16
Anthony Gill shooting foul
WSH 126·MIA 148
Q4·1:19
Bub Carrington makes driving layup (Bilal Coulibaly assists)
·
WSH 126·MIA 148
Q4·1:21
Dru Smith bad pass turnover (Bilal Coulibaly steals)
·
WSH 124·MIA 148
Q4·1:24
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 124·MIA 148
Q4·1:24
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 123·MIA 148
Q4·1:24
Kasparas Jakucionis personal take foul
WSH 122·MIA 148
Q4·1:24
Bilal Coulibaly defensive rebound
WSH 122·MIA 148
Q4·1:25
Keshad Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2
·
WSH 122·MIA 148
Q4·1:25
Heat offensive team rebound
WSH 122·MIA 148
Q4·1:25
Keshad Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
·
WSH 122·MIA 148
Q4·1:25
Jaden Hardy personal foul
WSH 122·MIA 148

Betting line

MIA -15.5·O/U 235.5·WSH +750/MIA -1200

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

iami Heat held off Washington Wizards, 150–129. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIA -15.5 cashed (won by 21). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 43.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Alex SarrWSH · C
CONT9.498
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIL · F
DRIVES13.295
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Bam AdebayoMIA · C
CONT6.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
25.0± 4.5high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Bam AdebayoMIA
18.4± 7.8high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Bam AdebayoMIA
10.3± 3.7high

Assists

Davion MitchellMIA
5.9± 2.8high
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA
5.1± 2.6high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Bilal CoulibalyWSH
1.0± 1.1high

Steals

Julian ReeseWSH
1.4± 1.7low
Leaky BlackWSH
1.4± 1.7medium
Dru SmithMIA
1.3± 1.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

MIA

53.5%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.2%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.8%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

120.9

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.0

Data via ESPN · hoopR