NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9ATL

PHI

34-29

116125

ATL

33-31

NBASat, Mar 7FinalSeriesATL wins series 4-0VegasATL -6.5

PHI · top performer

Tyrese Maxey

G · #0

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Jalen Johnson

F · #1

31.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPHI ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 27pp · 2nd Quarter · 0.0

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BarlowF · #25	26	4	2-5	—	—	-5	1	2
A. BonaC · #30	29	4	2-4	—	0-2	+1	7	3
K. Oubre Jr.G · #9	36	24	10-15	3-5	1-3	-8	5	4
Q. GrimesG · #5	41	26	9-15	3-8	5-7	-13	6	3
T. MaxeyG · #0	38	31	12-22	3-7	4-4	-10	2	5
Bench
T. WatfordF · #12	19	10	5-7	—	—	-6	2	2
J. WalkerF · #33	17	9	3-7	1-3	2-2	+1	5	1
A. DrummondC · #1	19	2	1-4	0-1	—	-10	7	1
C. PaynePG · #20	15	6	3-7	0-2	—	+5	1	6
Team		116	47-86	10-26	12-18		36	27
DNP: M. Beauchamp, D. Terry, J. Edwards, K. Lowry, T. Martin

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	29	10	4-7	1-1	1-2	+14	6	5
J. JohnsonF · #1	39	35	12-19	2-4	9-9	+12	10	7
C. McCollumG · #3	32	17	6-13	1-5	4-6	+19	3	7
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	36	24	8-15	4-9	4-4	+11	2	6
D. DanielsG · #5	35	15	7-10	1-2	—	+14	9	4
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	14	7	3-7	1-4	0-1	-3	2	0
M. GueyeF · #18	9	2	1-2	—	—	-3	2	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	22	8	3-5	2-4	—	-3	4	2
J. LandaleC · #31	19	7	2-4	1-2	2-3	-5	1	0
G. VincentG · #4	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	0	1
Team		125	46-83	13-32	20-25		39	32
DNP: C. Koloko, B. Hield, K. Wallace, C. Houstan

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

47-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-83

FG %

10-26

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-32

12-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

20-25

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ATL wins series 4-0

Nov 30

ATL142@

PHI134

Dec 14

PHI117@

ATL120

Feb 20

ATL117@

PHI107

Mar 7

PHI116@

ATL125today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

234.5

High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHI+22531%

ATL-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

234.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat PHI 125-116. J. Johnson led the way with 35 points and 10 rebounds. PHI outscored the other side 38-28 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs PHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHIstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 21 REB · 17 AST

GS 67

Bench(4)

27 PTS · 15 REB · 10 AST

GS 25

ATLstarters 81% of pts

Starters(5)

101 PTS · 30 REB · 29 AST

GS 89

Bench(5)

24 PTS · 9 REB · 3 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHI2nd Quarter · 0.0 · 73-66

+27pp→ 64% WP

Hawks de · lay of game violation

ATL4th Quarter · 10:14 · 98-100

+10pp→ 63% WP

Zaccharie Risacher · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)

ATL4th Quarter · 6:56 · 102-107

+10pp→ 80% WP

Nickeil Alexander-Walker · makes 24-foot three point jumper

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHI	38	35	21	22	116
ATL	28	38	31	28	125

Period scoring

PHI won 1 · ATL won 3

Maxey 15

Alexander-Walker 7

Grimes 7

Watford 14

Grimes 10

Jr. 13

Maxey 8

Daniels 15

PHI

ATL

Shooting comparison

PHI

ATL

55%

47-86

55%

46-83

38%

10-26

3PT

41%

13-32

67%

12-18

80%

20-25

Play-by-play · 456 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·5.3
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·6.2
Adem Bona misses tip shot
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·6.2
Adem Bona offensive rebound
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·10.5
Cameron Payne misses driving floating jump shot
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·16.2
Cameron Payne enters the game for Tyrese Maxey
·
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·16.2
76ers Full timeout
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·16.2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes running dunk (CJ McCollum assists)
· ·
PHI 116·ATL 125
Q4·16.5
CJ McCollum defensive rebound
PHI 116·ATL 123
Q4·18.6
Quentin Grimes misses 25-foot three point shot
PHI 116·ATL 123
+1pp
Q4·23.1
CJ McCollum bad pass turnover (Tyrese Maxey steals)
·
PHI 116·ATL 123
−1pp
Q4·25.6
Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 1
PHI 116·ATL 123
+1pp
Q4·25.6
Onyeka Okongwu shooting foul
PHI 115·ATL 123
−1pp
Q4·25.6
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup
PHI 115·ATL 123
Q4·31.6
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
PHI 113·ATL 123
Q4·31.6
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 1 of 2
PHI 113·ATL 122
Q4·31.6
Dominick Barlow personal take foul
PHI 113·ATL 121
Q4·32.3
Quentin Grimes steps out of bounds turnover
PHI 113·ATL 121
+1pp
Q4·33.9
76ers Full timeout
PHI 113·ATL 121
Q4·33.9
Jalen Johnson traveling turnover
PHI 113·ATL 121
−0.8pp
Q4·41.6
Kelly Oubre Jr. bad pass turnover (Onyeka Okongwu steals)
·
PHI 113·ATL 121
+4pp
Q4·43.7
Onyeka Okongwu loose ball foul
PHI 113·ATL 121
−3pp
Q4·43.7
76ers offensive team rebound
PHI 113·ATL 121
−0.6pp
Q4·45.3
Tyrese Maxey misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHI 113·ATL 121
+0.8pp
Q4·50.8
Tyrese Maxey defensive goaltending violation
PHI 113·ATL 121
Q4·50.8
Dyson Daniels makes alley oop layup (Jalen Johnson assists)
·
PHI 113·ATL 121
+2pp
Q4·58.9
Tyrese Maxey makes driving layup
PHI 113·ATL 119
−1pp
Q4·1:07
Adem Bona defensive rebound
PHI 111·ATL 119
Q4·1:10
CJ McCollum misses free throw 2 of 2
PHI 111·ATL 119
−1pp

Betting line

ATL -6.5·O/U 234.5·PHI +225/ATL -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Philadelphia 76ers, 125–116.

ATL -6.5 cashed (won by 9). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G
TOUCHES94.599
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Kelly Oubre Jr.PHI · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHI

league avg

ATL

52.9%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

46.0%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.3

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

24.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

12.8

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR