NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4SA

LAC

30-32

112116

46-17

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesSA leads series 1-0VegasSA -7.5

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

25.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

23.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowLAC ↔ SA

Biggest swing: 35pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:06

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	37	30	10-20	1-6	9-10	-3	9	3
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	34	12	4-12	2-7	2-2	+3	3	2
B. LopezC · #11	34	26	11-19	4-8	—	0	6	2
K. DunnG · #8	31	4	2-5	0-1	—	-12	7	5
K. SandersG · #4	25	10	4-7	2-3	—	-6	4	1
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	17	6	2-3	2-3	—	+4	2	1
I. JacksonF · #23	14	5	2-2	—	1-2	-4	5	1
J. MillerG · #22	25	11	4-6	1-2	2-2	-1	2	6
B. MathurinG · #9	22	8	3-12	0-3	2-4	-1	3	1
Team		112	42-86	12-33	16-20		41	22
DNP: N. Omier, B. Bogdanovic, T. Washington Jr., S. Pedulla, C. Christie

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	29	20	6-10	5-8	3-5	+1	9	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	22	27	11-21	4-9	1-2	+10	10	1
D. FoxG · #4	30	19	9-18	1-8	—	+10	2	9
D. VassellG · #24	35	11	4-13	2-8	1-2	+6	4	3
S. CastleG · #5	34	6	2-8	1-3	1-2	+4	8	8
Bench
L. Waters IIIF · #43	4	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	22	10	4-9	2-3	—	-7	6	0
C. BryantF · #11	21	5	2-2	1-1	—	+11	3	1
L. KornetC · #7	24	10	5-9	—	—	-7	7	2
D. HarperG · #2	20	8	3-5	1-1	1-3	-8	2	4
Team		116	46-95	17-41	7-14		52	29
DNP: K. Olynyk, B. Biyombo, J. McLaughlin

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

Home

42-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

46-95

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-41

16-20

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

7-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

SA leads series 1-0

Mar 7

LAC112@

SA116today

Mar 17

SA119@

LAC115

Apr 3

SA118@

LAC99

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

221.5

Standard · -4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC+22531%

SA-27874%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -7.5↗SpreadBet SA -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

221.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SA beat LAC 116-112. V. Wembanyama paced them with 27 PTS, 10 REB, 1 AST. SA outscored the other side 35-20 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SA vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 29 REB · 13 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 12 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

SAstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 33 REB · 22 AST

GS 66

Bench(5)

33 PTS · 19 REB · 7 AST

GS 33

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SA4th Quarter · 8:30 · 97-92

+24pp→ 27% WP

Kawhi Leonard · misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot

LAC3rd Quarter · 3:06 · 86-72

+35pp→ 94% WP

Luke Kornet · misses 1-foot tip shot

SA4th Quarter · 8.3 · 112-113

+22pp→ 77% WP

Julian Champagnie · offensive rebound

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	32	34	26	20	112
SA	25	21	35	35	116

Period scoring

LAC won 2 · SA won 2

Lopez 9

Wembanyama 7

Lopez 8

Wembanyama 5

Leonard 9

Champagnie 17

Leonard 10

Champagnie 29

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

49%

42-86

48%

46-95

36%

12-33

3PT

41%

17-41

80%

16-20

50%

7-14

Play-by-play · 457 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 112·SA 116
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 112·SA 116
Q4·0.1
Clippers offensive team rebound
LAC 112·SA 116
Q4·0.1
Bennedict Mathurin misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 112·SA 116
+1pp
Q4·1.4
Stephon Castle makes two point shot
LAC 112·SA 116
+4pp
Q4·3.2
Stephon Castle offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 114
+13pp
Q4·6.1
Stephon Castle misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 114
−12pp
Q4·6.1
Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 112·SA 114
+1pp
Q4·6.1
Kawhi Leonard personal take foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
+16pp
Q4·8.3
Julian Champagnie offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
+22pp
Q4·12.9
Julian Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
−17pp
Q4·12.9
Brook Lopez enters the game for Isaiah Jackson
·
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·12.9
Spurs offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
−9pp
Q4·12.9
Julian Champagnie misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
−7pp
Q4·12.9
Bennedict Mathurin shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
+17pp
Q4·14.9
Spurs Full timeout
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·14.9
Kris Dunn enters the game for Brook Lopez
·
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·14.9
Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Nicolas Batum
·
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·14.9
Brook Lopez out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 113
+16pp
Q4·16.0
Nicolas Batum enters the game for Kris Dunn
·
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·16.0
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 112·SA 113
Q4·16.0
Victor Wembanyama makes 1-foot running dunk (De'Aaron Fox assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 112·SA 113
+8pp
Q4·16.7
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
LAC 112·SA 111
+4pp
Q4·19.5
Kawhi Leonard misses 27-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 111
+9pp
Q4·36.8
Kris Dunn defensive rebound
LAC 112·SA 111
−4pp
Q4·40.5
De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 111
−10pp
Q4·52.3
Derrick Jones Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1BIG MOMENT
LAC 112·SA 111
+9pp
Q4·52.3
Victor Wembanyama shooting foulBIG MOMENT
LAC 111·SA 111
−18pp
Q4·52.3
Derrick Jones Jr. makes driving layup (Brook Lopez assists)BIG MOMENT
·
LAC 111·SA 111
−14pp
Q4·54.7
Clippers Full timeout
LAC 109·SA 111

Betting line

SA -7.5·O/U 221.5·LAC +225/SA -278

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

an Antonio Spurs held off LA Clippers, 116–112. Decided by 4.

LAC +7.5 cashed (SA won by 4). Total cleared the 221.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Brook LopezLAC · C
CONT8.396

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SA vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

150

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high
John CollinsLAC
5.8± 2.5high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high
Isaiah JacksonLAC
1.2± 0.8high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
1.3± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

55.3%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

47.7%

113.9

PPG

114.9

▶

118.2

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

27.3

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.8

Data via ESPN · hoopR