NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHX

20-45

116118

PHX

36-27

NBAFri, Mar 6FinalSeriesPHX wins series 4-0VegasPHX -3.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

18.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

22.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 22pp · 4th Quarter · 11.7

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	31	14	6-11	2-5	—	-1	2	4
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	34	19	6-13	—	7-9	+5	10	3
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	41	22	6-17	4-9	6-7	+10	2	4
D. MurrayG · #5	30	15	5-13	1-5	4-5	-1	8	5
S. BeyG · #41	34	19	5-12	1-5	8-8	+3	6	0
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	13	9	4-4	1-1	—	-1	3	0
D. QueenC · #22	13	4	1-4	—	2-2	-8	1	1
Y. MissiC · #21	16	4	2-3	—	—	-8	8	0
B. McGowensG · #11	13	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-7	2	0
J. FearsG · #0	15	8	2-5	1-2	3-4	-2	0	1
Team		116	37-83	10-28	32-37		42	18
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	31	11	4-9	3-8	—	-7	6	3
O. IghodaroF · #11	27	13	5-7	—	3-5	+2	6	1
D. BookerG · #1	35	32	10-21	5-12	7-8	+1	4	4
C. GillespieG · #12	32	12	4-12	4-11	—	-9	6	6
J. GreenG · #4	31	25	8-17	3-9	6-7	+3	5	3
Bench
H. HighsmithF · #19	0	0	—	—	—	+2	0	0
R. DunnF · #0	13	3	1-4	1-4	0-2	+9	1	1
R. FlemingF · #20	14	6	2-5	2-4	0-2	0	5	0
K. MaluachC · #10	20	4	2-3	—	—	+4	4	1
G. AllenG · #8	29	12	4-10	2-8	2-2	+1	2	8
A. CoffeyG · #2	7	0	0-2	0-2	—	+4	2	0
Team		118	40-90	20-58	18-26		41	27
DNP: C. Huntley, J. Bouyea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

37-83

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

40-90

FG %

10-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

20-58

32-37

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

PHX wins series 4-0

Nov 11

NO98@

PHX121

Dec 27

PHX115@

NO108

Dec 28

PHX123@

NO114

Mar 7

NO116@

PHX118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+14541%

PHX-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗SpreadBet PHX -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHX beat NO 118-116. D. Booker paced them with 32 PTS, 4 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 32-23 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 77% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 28 REB · 16 AST

GS 72

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 17

PHXstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

93 PTS · 27 REB · 17 AST

GS 72

Bench(6)

25 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 26

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NO4th Quarter · 11.7 · 111-114

+22pp→ 41% WP

Devin Booker · personal foul

PHX4th Quarter · 11.4 · 113-114

+19pp→ 88% WP

Dejounte Murray · personal foul

NO4th Quarter · 8.6 · 113-116

+16pp→ 32% WP

Ryan Dunn · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	29	23	29	35	116
PHX	26	32	34	26	118

Period scoring

NO won 2 · PHX won 2

III 10

Green 8

Williamson 9

Green 10

Bey 10

Booker 18

Murray 10

Bey 13

PHX

Shooting comparison

PHX

45%

37-83

44%

40-90

36%

10-28

3PT

34%

20-58

86%

32-37

69%

18-26

Play-by-play · 523 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 116·PHX 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
NO 116·PHX 118
+8pp
Q4·5.3
Herbert Jones makes driving dunk (Zion Williamson assists)
·
NO 116·PHX 118
−1pp
Q4·7.8
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 114·PHX 118
Q4·7.8
Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 114·PHX 118
−4pp
Q4·7.8
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green
·
NO 114·PHX 117
Q4·7.8
Devin Booker makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 114·PHX 117
+3pp
Q4·7.8
Saddiq Bey personal take foulBIG MOMENT
NO 114·PHX 116
+9pp
Q4·8.6
Dejounte Murray enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 114·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Jalen Green enters the game for Haywood Highsmith
·
NO 114·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Grayson Allen enters the game for Khaman Maluach
·
NO 114·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Collin Gillespie enters the game for Ryan Dunn
·
NO 114·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Suns Full timeout
NO 114·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 114·PHX 116
+0.5pp
Q4·8.6
Yves Missi enters the game for Dejounte Murray
·
NO 113·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Collin Gillespie
·
NO 113·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
NO 113·PHX 116
Q4·8.6
Pelicans offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 116
+8pp
Q4·8.6
Zion Williamson misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 116
+10pp
Q4·8.6
Ryan Dunn personal foulBIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 116
−17pp
Q4·9.8
Dejounte Murray enters the game for Yves Missi
·
NO 113·PHX 116
Q4·9.8
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 113·PHX 116
Q4·9.8
Grayson Allen makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 116
−6pp
Q4·9.8
Yves Missi enters the game for Dejounte Murray
·
NO 113·PHX 115
Q4·9.8
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Haywood Highsmith
·
NO 113·PHX 115
Q4·9.8
Grayson Allen makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 113·PHX 115
+2pp
Q4·9.8
Dejounte Murray personal take foul
NO 113·PHX 114
+0.6pp
Q4·11.4
Dejounte Murray personal foulBIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 114
+19pp
Q4·11.7
Saddiq Bey makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NO 113·PHX 114
+14pp
Q4·11.7
Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Jalen Green
·
NO 112·PHX 114

Betting line

PHX -3.5·O/U 228.5·NO +145/PHX -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns held off New Orleans Pelicans, 118–116. Decided by 2.

NO +3.5 cashed (PHX won by 2). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Derik QueenNO
1.0± 0.9high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

PHX

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

53.7%

46.6%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR