NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10NO

20-44

133123

SAC

14-50

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesNO leads series 2-0VegasNO -6.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

19.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Precious Achiuwa

PF · #9

30.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 24pp · 1st Quarter · 4:25

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	24	12	4-12	2-9	2-2	-6	3	2
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	29	23	10-14	—	3-5	+5	9	5
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	32	21	7-14	4-6	3-4	+13	7	4
Y. MissiC · #21	16	7	3-3	—	1-1	-7	2	1
S. BeyG · #41	33	20	6-11	3-5	5-6	+6	1	0
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	25	9	4-9	1-3	—	+22	9	2
D. QueenC · #22	26	12	4-10	0-3	4-4	0	9	5
M. PeavyG · #14	1	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	0	0	0
B. McGowensG · #11	27	14	5-10	1-3	3-3	+10	6	2
J. FearsG · #0	28	13	6-14	1-4	—	+7	6	6
Team		133	49-98	12-34	23-27		52	27
DNP: K. Looney, D. Jordan, J. Poole, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	41	29	12-16	1-3	4-6	-1	12	5
M. RaynaudC · #42	26	10	5-9	—	—	-5	5	1
R. WestbrookG · #18	34	19	7-15	2-6	3-5	-4	2	10
D. DeRozanG · #10	27	15	6-16	0-2	3-5	0	2	2
N. CliffordG · #5	21	7	3-8	1-2	—	-2	5	3
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	-8	1	0
D. EubanksF · #19	22	15	7-9	0-1	1-3	-5	11	0
M. MonkG · #0	30	18	7-14	2-8	2-2	-13	1	4
D. PlowdenG · #29	18	6	2-4	2-4	—	-16	1	1
P. Baldwin Jr.G · #23	6	0	0-3	0-3	—	-7	1	0
K. HayesG · #3	11	4	1-3	0-1	2-2	+11	1	3
Team		123	50-99	8-31	15-23		42	29
DNP: D. Carter

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

49-98

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

50-99

FG %

12-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

8-31

23-27

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

15-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NO leads series 2-0

Feb 10

SAC94@

NO120

Mar 6

NO133@

SAC123today

Apr 4

NO113@

SAC117

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NO -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

236.5

High-scoring · +10.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO-26573%

SAC+21532%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NO -6.5↗SpreadBet NO -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

236.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NO beat SAC 133-123. T. Murphy III led with 21 PTS, 7 REB, 4 AST. NO outscored the other side 38-28 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 62% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 68

Bench(5)

50 PTS · 30 REB · 15 AST

GS 51

SACstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 26 REB · 21 AST

GS 66

Bench(6)

43 PTS · 16 REB · 8 AST

GS 34

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

SAC1st Quarter · 4:25 · 13-20

+24pp→ 54% WP

Nique Clifford · misses tip shot

SAC3rd Quarter · 7:47 · 78-76

+16pp→ 35% WP

Yves Missi · bad pass turnover (DeMar DeRozan steals)

NO3rd Quarter · 4:15 · 88-81

+16pp→ 85% WP

Maxime Raynaud · lost ball turnover (Zion Williamson steals)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	26	41	38	28	133
SAC	30	33	28	32	123

Period scoring

NO won 2 · SAC won 2

Jones 6

DeRozan 10

III 10

Clifford 14

Bey 10

DeRozan 22

Williamson 9

Eubanks 11

SAC

Shooting comparison

SAC

50%

49-98

51%

50-99

35%

12-34

3PT

26%

8-31

85%

23-27

65%

15-23

Play-by-play · 482 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 133·SAC 123
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 133·SAC 123
Q4·1.0
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
NO 133·SAC 123
Q4·2.0
Micah Peavy misses 26-foot three point jumper
NO 133·SAC 123
Q4·8.0
Malik Monk makes 8-foot floating jump shot (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
NO 133·SAC 123
Q4·22.2
Micah Peavy makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 133·SAC 121
Q4·22.2
Micah Peavy makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 132·SAC 121
Q4·22.2
DeMar DeRozan shooting foul
NO 131·SAC 121
Q4·39.2
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 131·SAC 121
Q4·39.2
Micah Peavy enters the game for Herbert Jones
·
NO 131·SAC 120
Q4·39.2
Russell Westbrook makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 131·SAC 120
Q4·39.2
Jeremiah Fears personal foul
NO 131·SAC 119
Q4·40.2
Jeremiah Fears lost ball turnover (Russell Westbrook steals)
·
NO 131·SAC 119
Q4·52.9
Precious Achiuwa makes 24-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)
·
NO 131·SAC 119
Q4·1:02
Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Saddiq Bey
·
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:02
Bryce McGowens enters the game for Trey Murphy III
·
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:02
Derik Queen enters the game for Zion Williamson
·
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:02
Zion Williamson personal take foul
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:05
Precious Achiuwa defensive rebound
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:07
Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:25
Herbert Jones defensive rebound
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:28
DeMar DeRozan misses driving layup
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:38
Trey Murphy III makes 4-foot dunk (Herbert Jones assists)
·
NO 131·SAC 116
Q4·1:41
Russell Westbrook lost ball turnover (Trey Murphy III steals)
·
NO 129·SAC 116
Q4·1:49
Kings Full timeout
NO 129·SAC 116
Q4·1:49
Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three pointer
NO 129·SAC 116
Q4·2:01
Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
NO 126·SAC 116
Q4·2:03
DeMar DeRozan misses 16-foot pullup jump shot
NO 126·SAC 116
−0.7pp
Q4·2:23
Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)
·
NO 126·SAC 116
−3pp
Q4·2:47
Drew Eubanks makes two point shot
NO 123·SAC 116
+2pp

Betting line

NO -6.5·O/U 236.5·NO -265/SAC +215

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew Orleans Pelicans went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 133–123.

NO -6.5 cashed (won by 10). Total cleared the 236.5 OVER by 19.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596
Zion WilliamsonNO · F
DRIVES13.796
Maxime RaynaudSAC · C
CONT7.593
Russell WestbrookSAC · G
DRIVES11.692

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high
Saddiq BeyNO
19.2± 4.8high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high
Domantas SabonisSAC
4.3± 2.0high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high

Steals

Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high
Trey Murphy IIINO
1.4± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

SAC

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

52.5%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

46.7%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR