NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CHI

CHI

26-37

105103

PHX

35-27

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesCHI leads series 1-0VegasPHX -10.5

CHI · top performer

Collin Sexton

G · #2

25.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowCHI ↔ PHX

Biggest swing: 32pp · 4th Quarter · 4.5

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	37	16	6-15	3-6	1-2	+7	6	2
I. OkoroF · #35	36	6	3-7	0-1	—	-1	1	3
L. MillerF · #33	24	8	3-9	0-5	2-2	+11	9	0
C. SextonG · #2	38	30	11-19	2-7	6-8	+11	3	5
T. JonesG · #30	29	21	9-15	1-3	2-3	-3	6	5
Bench
N. RichardsC · #13	29	9	2-2	—	5-10	-8	11	1
R. DillinghamG · #7	21	11	5-12	1-5	—	-7	2	1
Y. KawamuraG · #8	10	0	0-1	0-1	—	0	2	4
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		105	41-86	7-28	16-25		46	23
DNP: M. Buzelis, M. McClung, J. Giddey

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
R. O'NealeF · #00	18	3	1-6	1-4	—	-15	4	0
O. IghodaroF · #11	36	10	5-5	—	0-1	+3	9	4
D. BookerG · #1	32	27	9-21	2-7	7-7	+2	6	2
C. GillespieG · #12	25	5	1-6	1-5	2-2	-7	2	5
J. GreenG · #4	32	12	5-20	1-8	1-2	-5	3	3
Bench
R. DunnF · #0	24	6	3-7	0-2	—	+7	11	1
R. FlemingF · #20	11	5	2-3	1-2	0-2	-2	3	1
K. MaluachC · #10	12	2	1-1	—	0-2	-5	4	0
G. AllenG · #8	33	21	6-19	5-16	4-4	+9	2	8
A. CoffeyG · #2	17	12	3-4	2-2	4-7	+3	4	0
Team		103	36-92	13-46	18-27		48	24
DNP: H. Highsmith, C. Huntley, J. Bouyea

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

PHX

Home

41-86

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-92

FG %

7-28

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-46

16-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-27

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

CHI leads series 1-0

Mar 6

CHI105@

PHX103today

Apr 5

PHX120@

CHI110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+44019%

PHX-60086%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -10.5↗SpreadBet PHX -10.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat PHX 105-103. C. Sexton paced them with 30 PTS, 3 REB, 5 AST. Jalen Green's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (32pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

PHX vs CHI

Starters vs bench

production by unit

CHIstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 25 REB · 15 AST

GS 61

Bench(4)

20 PTS · 15 REB · 6 AST

GS 14

PHXstarters 55% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 24 REB · 14 AST

GS 36

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 24 REB · 10 AST

GS 38

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 1:41 · 100-96

+13pp→ 35% WP

Isaac Okoro · shooting foul

PHX4th Quarter · 22.9 · 104-103

+18pp→ 33% WP

Devin Booker · makes 27-foot three pointer

CHI4th Quarter · 4.5 · 104-103

+32pp→ 85% WP

Jalen Green · misses driving layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	24	31	28	22	105
PHX	20	30	27	26	103

Period scoring

CHI won 3 · PHX won 1

Sexton 8

Booker 6

Jones 8

Allen 14

Sexton 8

Ighodaro 8

Yabusele 7

Green 11

CHI

PHX

Shooting comparison

CHI

PHX

48%

41-86

39%

36-92

25%

7-28

3PT

28%

13-46

64%

16-25

67%

18-27

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
CHI 105·PHX 103
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th QuarterBIG MOMENT
CHI 105·PHX 103
−7pp
Q4·4.4
Tre Jones offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 105·PHX 103
−6pp
Q4·4.4
Nick Richards misses free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 105·PHX 103
+9pp
Q4·4.4
Khaman Maluach enters the game for Grayson Allen
·
CHI 105·PHX 103
Q4·4.4
Ryan Dunn enters the game for Jalen Green
·
CHI 105·PHX 103
Q4·4.4
Nick Richards makes free throw 1 of 2
CHI 105·PHX 103
−1pp
Q4·4.4
Amir Coffey personal take foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·PHX 103
−7pp
Q4·4.4
Nick Richards defensive rebound
CHI 104·PHX 103
−2pp
Q4·4.5
Jalen Green misses driving layupBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·PHX 103
−33pp
Q4·20.1
Isaac Okoro out of bounds bad pass turnoverBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·PHX 103
+15pp
Q4·22.2
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 104·PHX 103
Q4·22.2
Bulls Full timeout
CHI 104·PHX 103
Q4·22.9
Devin Booker makes 27-foot three pointerBIG MOMENT
CHI 104·PHX 103
+18pp
Q4·27.2
Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 104·PHX 100
+2pp
Q4·27.2
Bulls offensive team rebound
CHI 103·PHX 100
+4pp
Q4·27.2
Tre Jones misses free throw 1 of 2
CHI 103·PHX 100
+3pp
Q4·27.2
Amir Coffey personal foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 103·PHX 100
−10pp
Q4·46.0
Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 103·PHX 100
+9pp
Q4·55.0
Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)BIG MOMENT
·
CHI 103·PHX 97
−12pp
Q4·1:15
Nick Richards defensive rebound
CHI 100·PHX 97
−3pp
Q4·1:19
Jalen Green misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 100·PHX 97
−7pp
Q4·1:27
Jalen Green defensive rebound
CHI 100·PHX 97
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Tre Jones misses driving floating jump shotBIG MOMENT
CHI 100·PHX 97
+6pp
Q4·1:41
Amir Coffey makes free throw 2 of 2
CHI 100·PHX 97
−0.7pp
Q4·1:41
Suns offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
CHI 100·PHX 96
−6pp
Q4·1:41
Amir Coffey misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
CHI 100·PHX 96
−7pp
Q4·1:41
Isaac Okoro shooting foulBIG MOMENT
CHI 100·PHX 96
+13pp
Q4·1:46
Devin Booker defensive rebound
CHI 100·PHX 96
+2pp
Q4·1:48
Devin Booker blocks Collin Sexton 's 4-foot driving layup
·
CHI 100·PHX 96
+5pp

Betting line

PHX -10.5·O/U 224.5·CHI +440/PHX -600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls went into Phoenix Suns and beat them, 105–103. Decided by 2.

CHI +10.5 cashed (PHX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 224.5 by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Leonard MillerCHI · F
TS%63.387

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · CHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHX win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHX vs CHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

170

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

CHI

league avg

PHX

54.7%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

53.7%

46.9%

FG%

◀

47.0

45.5%

116.3

PPG

◀

114.9

112.2

28.5

Assists / G

◀

25.0

24.5

14.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR