DET
45-16
SA
45-17
DET · top performer
Isaiah Stewart
F · #28
18
Pts
5
Reb
2
Ast
SA · top performer
Victor Wembanyama
F · #1
38
Pts
16
Reb
3
Ast
Biggest swing: 10pp · 1st Quarter · 5:27
NBA · Detroit Pistons at San Antonio Spurs · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 11 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 6-6 | -12 | 4 | 1 | |
| 26 | 11 | 4-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -23 | 3 | 1 | |
| 12 | 7 | 3-7 | — | 1-3 | -5 | 7 | 2 | |
| 39 | 26 | 10-26 | 4-7 | 2-2 | -7 | 4 | 8 | |
| 2 | 0 | — | — | — | -5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 9 | 6 | 3-4 | — | — | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 30 | 18 | 4-8 | 3-5 | 7-8 | -10 | 5 | 2 | |
| 12 | 10 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 2-2 | -11 | 5 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 19 | 10 | 2-7 | 1-3 | 5-5 | +12 | 3 | 0 | |
| 20 | 0 | 0-5 | 0-1 | — | -11 | 3 | 3 | |
| 17 | 7 | 3-4 | 1-2 | — | +15 | 5 | 2 | |
| 7 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -3 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-2 | 0-2 | -15 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 106 | 35-87 | 12-28 | 24-30 | 44 | 20 | ||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 31 | 16 | 4-8 | 3-6 | 5-7 | +19 | 7 | 1 | |
| 39 | 38 | 12-24 | 4-10 | 10-11 | +20 | 16 | 3 | |
| 32 | 29 | 12-22 | 4-10 | 1-2 | +17 | 5 | 3 | |
| 31 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-5 | 1-2 | +2 | 3 | 3 | |
| 35 | 11 | 4-8 | — | 3-4 | +20 | 1 | 12 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 8 | 2-6 | 0-2 | 4-4 | +1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 20 | 2 | 1-3 | 0-2 | — | +7 | 6 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 1-1 | — | — | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 7 | 3-5 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 2 | 1 | |
| Team | 121 | 42-84 | 13-37 | 24-30 | 46 | 24 | ||
| DNP: K. Olynyk | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
40
FG %
50
20
Ast
24
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
SA
Home
35-87
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
42-84
40
FG %
50
12-28
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
13-37
24-30
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
24-30
20
Assists
24
10
Turnovers
8
Season series
SA wins series 2-0
SA114@DET103DET106@SA121todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SA -2.5
Between — and 5
Total
227.5
Standard · +1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
DET+12445%SA-14860%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
2.5
0.0 since open
Total
227.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
SA beat DET 121-106. V. Wembanyama led the way with 38 points and 16 rebounds. SA outscored the other side 38-23 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
SA vs DET
Starters vs bench
production by unitDETstarters 52% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 18 REB · 12 AST
GS 34
Bench(10)
51 PTS · 26 REB · 8 AST
GS 43
SAstarters 84% of ptsStarters(5)
102 PTS · 32 REB · 22 AST
GS 92
Bench(7)
19 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST
GS 15
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactDylan Harper · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
Dylan Harper · lost ball turnover (Isaiah Stewart steals)
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 23 | 32 | 30 | 21 | 106 |
| SA | 38 | 33 | 22 | 28 | 121 |
Period scoring
DET won 1 · SA won 3
Q1
II 6
Fox 16
Q2
Cunningham 9
Wembanyama 12
Q3
Cunningham 6
Wembanyama 10
Q4
Cunningham 9
Champagnie 10
Shooting comparison
40%
35-87
FG
50%
42-84
43%
12-28
3PT
35%
13-37
80%
24-30
FT
80%
24-30
Play-by-play · 509 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·17.2
shot clock turnover
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·39.6
Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·41.9
Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·41.9
Dylan Harper enters the game for Devin Vassell
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·41.9
Pistons offensive team rebound
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·41.9
Daniss Jenkins misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·41.9
Devin Vassell personal foul
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·42.5
Bobi Klintman defensive rebound
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Devin Vassell misses free throw 2 of 2
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Marcus Sasser enters the game for Isaiah Stewart
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Bobi Klintman enters the game for Tobias Harris
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Chaz Lanier enters the game for Cade Cunningham
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Lindy Waters III enters the game for Julian Champagnie
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Bismack Biyombo enters the game for Stephon Castle
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Carter Bryant enters the game for De'Aaron Fox
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Jordan McLaughlin enters the game for Victor Wembanyama
·
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Devin Vassell makes free throw 1 of 2
DET 106·SA 121
- Q4·44.9
Cade Cunningham personal foul
DET 106·SA 120
- Q4·58.5
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
DET 106·SA 120
- Q4·1:01
Javonte Green misses 23-foot three point jumper
DET 106·SA 120
- Q4·1:11
Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2
DET 106·SA 120
- Q4·1:11
Daniss Jenkins enters the game for Kevin Huerter
·
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:11
Spurs offensive team rebound
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:11
Stephon Castle misses free throw 1 of 2
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:11
Cade Cunningham shooting foul
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:11
De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:14
De'Aaron Fox blocks Javonte Green's driving layup
·
DET 106·SA 119
- Q4·1:25
Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)
·
DET 106·SA 119
+0.5pp
Betting line
SA -2.5·O/U 227.5·DET +124/SA -148
Recap · NBA
an Antonio Spurs held off Detroit Pistons, 121–106.
SA -2.5 cashed (won by 15). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort
Cade CunninghamDET · GTOUCHES9799+- Victor WembanyamaSA · FCONT11.999+
Jalen DurenDET · CTS%68.898
De'Aaron FoxSA · GDRIVES14.898
Ausar ThompsonDET · GDEFL3.596
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SA win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SA vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
155
projections · 130 high confidence
Points
- Cade CunninghamDET26.1± 9.6high
- Tobias HarrisDET16.3± 7.8high
- Stephon CastleSA16.2± 5.2high
Rebounds
- Jalen DurenDET9.1± 3.9high
- Ausar ThompsonDET7.1± 3.2high
- Tobias HarrisDET6.4± 1.8high
Assists
- Cade CunninghamDET8.2± 2.8high
- De'Aaron FoxSA6.1± 1.3high
- Stephon CastleSA6.1± 1.7high
Blocks
- Ausar ThompsonDET1.5± 1.3high
- Jalen DurenDET1.0± 1.1high
- Paul ReedDET0.9± 1.3high
Steals
- Ausar ThompsonDET2.0± 1.8high
- Cade CunninghamDET1.4± 1.2high
- De'Aaron FoxSA1.4± 1.0high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
DET
league avg
SA
54.2%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.3%
48.0%
FG%
47.0
47.7%
115.9
PPG
114.9
▶118.2
27.0
Assists / G
25.0
27.3
14.3
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶12.8