NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10UTAH

UTAH

19-44

122112

WSH

16-46

NBAThu, Mar 5FinalSeriesUTAH leads series 1-0VegasWSH -3.5

UTAH · top performer

Ace Bailey

G · #19

25.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Julian Reese

F · #15

23.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowUTAH ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 21pp · 2nd Quarter · 8:48

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. FilipowskiF · #22	31	20	9-14	2-2	—	+7	14	3
C. WilliamsF · #5	36	13	5-6	1-2	2-2	+9	3	7
J. KoncharG · #55	37	0	0-3	0-2	—	+6	5	4
I. CollierG · #8	29	27	11-18	1-2	4-6	+5	3	11
A. BaileyG · #19	33	32	12-19	7-11	1-2	+8	2	0
Bench
B. HinsonF · #2	22	10	3-8	2-5	2-3	0	4	0
B. SensabaughF · #28	24	14	4-15	2-9	4-5	+9	1	4
M. BambaC · #11	17	6	3-6	—	—	+3	12	0
E. HarklessG · #16	12	0	0-3	0-2	—	+3	1	2
Team		122	47-92	15-35	13-18		45	31
DNP: K. Love, O. Tshiebwe, S. Mykhailiuk

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. BlackF · #14	39	16	5-12	4-9	2-2	-4	3	1
J. ReeseF · #15	38	18	5-7	—	8-8	-2	20	2
T. YoungG · #3	19	12	4-9	1-5	3-6	+4	2	6
B. CoulibalyG · #0	34	17	7-10	2-4	1-4	-5	3	2
T. JohnsonG · #12	20	15	5-13	5-9	—	+2	8	2
Bench
A. GillF · #16	34	10	3-3	1-1	3-5	-11	3	1
S. CooperG · #13	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-7	0	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	15	7	2-5	2-3	1-1	-15	1	2
J. HardyG · #8	11	4	1-7	1-4	1-2	-1	1	1
W. RileyG · #27	25	13	4-10	2-6	3-4	-11	2	3
Team		112	36-77	18-42	22-32		43	22
DNP: J. Champagnie, J. Watkins

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

UTAH

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

47-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-77

FG %

15-35

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-42

13-18

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

22-32

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

UTAH leads series 1-0

Mar 6

UTAH122@

WSH112today

Mar 26

WSH133@

UTAH110

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WSH -3.5

Between — and 5

Total

240.5

High-scoring · +14.5 vs avg

Moneyline

UTAH+14042%

WSH-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WSH -3.5↗SpreadBet WSH -3.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

3.5

0.0 since open

Total

240.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTAH beat WSH 122-112. A. Bailey paced them with 32 PTS, 2 REB, 0 AST. UTAH outscored the other side 37-23 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs UTAH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

UTAHstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

92 PTS · 27 REB · 25 AST

GS 92

Bench(4)

30 PTS · 18 REB · 6 AST

GS 19

WSHstarters 70% of pts

Starters(5)

78 PTS · 36 REB · 13 AST

GS 64

Bench(5)

34 PTS · 7 REB · 9 AST

GS 21

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

WSH1st Quarter · 3:36 · 23-16

+18pp→ 35% WP

Leaky Black · kicked ball violation

WSH2nd Quarter · 8:48 · 41-34

+21pp→ 33% WP

Elijah Harkless · misses driving floating jump shot

UTAH3rd Quarter · 56.7 · 90-82

+11pp→ 86% WP

Bub Carrington · technical foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
UTAH	37	30	26	29	122
WSH	23	26	35	28	112

Period scoring

UTAH won 3 · WSH won 1

Bailey 11

Black 8

Bailey 10

Black 9

Collier 9

Johnson 9

Collier 10

Reese 12

UTAH

WSH

Shooting comparison

UTAH

WSH

51%

47-92

47%

36-77

43%

15-35

3PT

43%

18-42

72%

13-18

69%

22-32

Play-by-play · 465 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
UTAH 122·WSH 112
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
UTAH 122·WSH 112
Q4·3.1
shot clock turnover
UTAH 122·WSH 112
Q4·25.8
Cody Williams defensive rebound
UTAH 122·WSH 112
Q4·29.3
Will Riley misses 27-foot three point jumper
UTAH 122·WSH 112
Q4·42.0
Kyle Filipowski makes 1-foot dunk (Isaiah Collier assists)
·
UTAH 122·WSH 112
−0.6pp
Q4·54.0
Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound
UTAH 120·WSH 112
Q4·55.9
Bilal Coulibaly misses free throw 2 of 2
UTAH 120·WSH 112
−3pp
Q4·55.9
Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2
UTAH 120·WSH 112
Q4·55.9
Ace Bailey shooting foul
UTAH 120·WSH 111
+2pp
Q4·1:09
Isaiah Collier makes free throw 1 of 1
UTAH 120·WSH 111
+0.7pp
Q4·1:09
Bub Carrington enters the game for Julian Reese
·
UTAH 119·WSH 111
Q4·1:09
Jazz Full timeout
UTAH 119·WSH 111
Q4·1:09
Will Riley shooting foul
UTAH 119·WSH 111
−2pp
Q4·1:09
Isaiah Collier makes driving layup
UTAH 119·WSH 111
−3pp
Q4·1:23
Bilal Coulibaly makes driving layup
UTAH 117·WSH 111
+2pp
Q4·1:31
Kyle Filipowski makes 4-foot dunk
UTAH 117·WSH 109
−2pp
Q4·1:31
Kyle Filipowski offensive rebound
UTAH 115·WSH 109
−3pp
Q4·1:32
Isaiah Collier misses driving floating jump shot
UTAH 115·WSH 109
+2pp
Q4·1:46
Will Riley makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
UTAH 115·WSH 109
+4pp
Q4·2:03
Jazz delay of game violation
UTAH 115·WSH 107
−2pp
Q4·2:06
Isaiah Collier makes driving layup
UTAH 115·WSH 107
−4pp
Q4·2:39
Leaky Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)
·
UTAH 113·WSH 107
+5pp
Q4·2:46
Julian Reese defensive rebound
UTAH 113·WSH 104
Q4·2:49
Isaiah Collier misses driving layup
UTAH 113·WSH 104
+0.8pp
Q4·3:05
Bilal Coulibaly makes 27-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)
·
UTAH 113·WSH 104
+2pp
Q4·3:21
Kyle Filipowski makes driving layup
UTAH 113·WSH 101
−1pp
Q4·3:43
Julian Reese makes 1-foot dunk
UTAH 111·WSH 101
+0.9pp
Q4·3:44
Julian Reese offensive rebound
UTAH 111·WSH 99
Q4·3:45
Will Riley misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot
UTAH 111·WSH 99
−0.8pp

Betting line

WSH -3.5·O/U 240.5·UTAH +140/WSH -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tah Jazz went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 122–112.

UTAH +3.5 cashed (WSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 240.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Blake HinsonUTAH · F
TS%68.497
Anthony GillWSH · F
TS%68.297
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Isaiah CollierUTAH · G
DRIVES11.592
John KoncharUTAH · G
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · UTAH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs UTAH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Lauri MarkkanenUTAH
24.2± 5.0high
Keyonte GeorgeUTAH
21.4± 8.8high
Jaren Jackson Jr.UTAH
20.7± 4.8high

Rebounds

Jusuf NurkicUTAH
11.4± 4.1high
Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Walker KesslerUTAH
10.7± 2.2low

Assists

Isaiah CollierUTAH
6.6± 2.5high
Kennedy ChandlerUTAH
6.5± 2.2medium
Jusuf NurkicUTAH
5.5± 4.5high

Blocks

Walker KesslerUTAH
1.8± 2.5low
Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high

Steals

Bez MbengUTAH
2.5± 1.7medium
John KoncharUTAH
1.9± 1.7high
Elijah HarklessUTAH
1.5± 1.4high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

UTAH

league avg

WSH

53.6%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.5%

46.7%

FG%

47.0

46.3%

117.6

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

15.0

Turnovers / G

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR