NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+18ATL

ATL

32-31

131113

MIL

26-35

NBAWed, Mar 4FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIL -1.5

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

19.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowATL ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 10pp · 3rd Quarter · 7:12

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	31	21	9-14	3-7	0-2	+19	8	1
J. JohnsonF · #1	34	20	7-17	1-2	5-7	+16	5	9
C. McCollumG · #3	29	18	5-11	2-7	6-6	+14	2	8
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	32	23	9-14	5-9	—	+19	1	2
D. DanielsG · #5	34	14	7-10	0-1	—	+21	10	3
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	20	7	3-7	1-5	—	+21	1	7
M. GueyeF · #18	14	8	3-3	2-2	—	+2	5	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	21	12	4-9	4-7	—	-6	5	0
J. LandaleC · #31	16	8	3-5	2-3	0-1	+1	1	3
C. KolokoC · #35	2	0	—	—	—	-2	1	0
G. VincentG · #4	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-11	1	0
K. WallaceG · #2	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	2	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
Team		131	50-92	20-45	11-16		40	33
DNP: B. Hield

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	26	24	10-15	—	4-8	-24	5	4
O. DiengF · #21	28	14	6-14	2-7	—	-25	4	0
M. TurnerC · #3	22	8	3-6	2-5	—	-18	3	0
A. GreenG · #20	24	7	3-9	1-6	—	-21	0	0
R. RollinsG · #13	35	13	4-11	2-7	3-4	-22	8	12
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	24	13	4-8	3-6	2-2	0	4	3
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
K. KuzmaF · #18	22	16	7-8	1-1	1-2	+2	2	2
P. NanceF · #35	14	3	1-2	1-1	—	+3	1	0
J. SimsC · #00	23	4	2-2	—	—	-1	11	3
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	2	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	18	11	3-9	1-5	4-4	+10	2	3
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	2	0	—	—	—	+2	1	0
Team		113	43-86	13-39	14-20		41	27
DNP: G. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

ATL

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

50-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-86

FG %

20-45

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-39

11-16

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-20

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 19

MIL112@

ATL110

Mar 5

ATL131@

MIL113today

Mar 14

MIL99@

ATL122

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

232.5

Standard · +6.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATL-10551%

MIL-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗SpreadBet MIL -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

232.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat MIL 131-113. O. Okongwu led with 21 PTS, 8 REB, 1 AST. ATL outscored the other side 32-18 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs ATL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

ATLstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 26 REB · 23 AST

GS 88

Bench(8)

35 PTS · 14 REB · 10 AST

GS 32

MILstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 20 REB · 16 AST

GS 51

Bench(8)

47 PTS · 21 REB · 11 AST

GS 41

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

ATL2nd Quarter · 7:25 · 44-49

+8pp→ 42% WP

Bobby Portis · misses 17-foot turnaround jump shot

ATL3rd Quarter · 11:20 · 69-71

+7pp→ 47% WP

Onyeka Okongwu · makes 27-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)

MIL3rd Quarter · 7:12 · 81-73

+10pp→ 19% WP

Myles Turner · blocks Onyeka Okongwu 's 12-foot driving floating jump shot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
ATL	25	41	32	33	131
MIL	38	33	18	24	113

Period scoring

ATL won 3 · MIL won 1

Okongwu 9

Antetokounmpo 10

Johnson 8

Portis 10

Okongwu 8

Kuzma 5

Daniels 8

Nance 16

ATL

MIL

Shooting comparison

ATL

MIL

54%

50-92

50%

43-86

44%

20-45

3PT

33%

13-39

69%

11-16

70%

14-20

Play-by-play · 446 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·17.8
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·21.7
Gary Trent Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·29.4
Andre Jackson Jr. offensive rebound
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·30.6
Christian Koloko blocks Thanasis Antetokounmpo 's 7-foot driving layup
· ·
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·44.2
Bucks defensive team rebound
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·44.2
Thanasis Antetokounmpo blocks Zaccharie Risacher 's 2-foot running layup
· ·
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·46.1
Christian Koloko defensive rebound
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·50.6
Cam Thomas misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·1:01
Zaccharie Risacher out of bounds bad pass turnover
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·1:06
Gary Trent Jr. bad pass turnover (Christian Koloko steals)
·
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·1:16
Keaton Wallace bad pass turnover (Thanasis Antetokounmpo steals)
· ·
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·1:32
Cam Thomas makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 131·MIL 113
Q4·1:32
Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Jalen Johnson
·
ATL 131·MIL 112
Q4·1:32
Cam Thomas makes free throw 1 of 2
ATL 131·MIL 112
Q4·1:32
Caleb Houstan personal take foul
ATL 131·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Keaton Wallace enters the game for CJ McCollum
·
ATL 131·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Jalen Johnson makes free throw 2 of 2
ATL 131·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Onyeka Okongwu
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Christian Koloko enters the game for Dyson Daniels
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Ousmane Dieng
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Kyle Kuzma
· ·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Pete Nance enters the game for Ryan Rollins
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Hawks offensive team rebound
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Jalen Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:33
Ryan Rollins shooting foul
ATL 130·MIL 111
Q4·1:40
Kyle Kuzma makes running layup (Ryan Rollins assists)
·
ATL 130·MIL 111

Betting line

MIL -1.5·O/U 232.5·ATL -105/MIL -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 131–113.

ATL +1.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total cleared the 232.5 OVER by 11.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

ATL

league avg

MIL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

47.2%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

117.2

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

29.6

Assists / G

◀

25.0

25.8

13.4

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR