NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+9LAL

19-44

101110

LAL

37-24

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesLAL win series 4-0VegasLAL -7.5

NO · top performer

Trey Murphy III

F · #25

15.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAL · top performer

LeBron James

F · #23

17.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ LAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · 4th Quarter · 5:39

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	33	2	1-7	0-4	—	-3	6	5
Z. WilliamsonF · #1	33	24	10-18	—	4-5	-7	4	0
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	33	21	7-15	3-7	4-5	-4	8	4
D. MurrayG · #5	28	15	5-13	2-6	3-3	-3	8	8
S. BeyG · #41	36	18	7-18	2-9	2-2	-9	5	3
Bench
D. JordanC · #6	16	6	3-4	—	—	-7	6	2
D. QueenC · #22	19	2	0-3	—	2-2	+2	2	4
Y. MissiC · #21	6	2	1-3	—	—	-2	1	0
B. McGowensG · #11	16	6	2-3	—	2-2	-13	1	1
J. FearsG · #0	19	5	2-6	1-3	—	+1	0	2
Team		101	38-90	8-29	17-19		41	29
DNP: K. Looney, K. Matkovic, J. Poole, M. Peavy, J. Hawkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
L. JamesF · #23	33	21	8-12	1-5	4-8	+3	7	7
D. AytonC · #5	25	13	6-8	—	1-1	-7	8	1
M. SmartG · #36	30	10	3-9	2-6	2-2	+13	3	7
L. DoncicG · #77	38	27	10-22	3-10	4-5	+1	10	7
A. ReavesG · #15	37	15	4-15	2-7	5-5	-1	8	3
Bench
R. HachimuraF · #28	19	2	0-4	0-4	2-2	-6	2	0
J. LaRaviaF · #12	14	5	2-4	1-2	—	+10	2	2
J. HayesC · #11	23	8	3-4	—	2-2	+16	6	1
L. KennardG · #10	21	9	3-5	2-3	1-1	+16	2	1
Team		110	39-83	11-37	21-26		48	29
DNP: M. Kleber, J. Vanderbilt, D. Knecht, A. Thiero, K. Bufkin, B. James

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAL

Home

38-90

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-83

FG %

8-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

11-37

17-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

21-26

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAL win series 4-0

Nov 15

LAL118@

NO104

Dec 1

NO121@

LAL133

Jan 7

LAL111@

NO103

Mar 4

NO101@

LAL110today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAL -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

Total

242.5

High-scoring · +16.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+26028%

LAL-32576%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗SpreadBet LAL -7.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

0.0 since open

Total

242.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAL beat NO 110-101. L. James led with 21 PTS, 7 REB, 7 AST. LAL outscored the other side 34-23 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAL vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 79% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 31 REB · 20 AST

GS 61

Bench(5)

21 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 14

LALstarters 78% of pts

Starters(5)

86 PTS · 36 REB · 25 AST

GS 69

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 12 REB · 4 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

LAL4th Quarter · 8:44 · 87-85

+13pp→ 56% WP

Derik Queen · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 5:39 · 94-91

+14pp→ 50% WP

Bryce McGowens · shooting foul

LAL4th Quarter · 5:04 · 94-96

+14pp→ 67% WP

Austin Reaves · makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	33	18	27	23	101
LAL	31	23	22	34	110

Period scoring

NO won 2 · LAL won 2

III 11

Doncic 8

Williamson 6

James 9

III 10

Reaves 5

Williamson 8

Reaves 8

LAL

Shooting comparison

LAL

42%

38-90

47%

39-83

28%

8-29

3PT

30%

11-37

89%

17-19

81%

21-26

Play-by-play · 490 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 101·LAL 110
+0.5pp
Q4·0.5
shot clock turnover
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·21.0
Luka Doncic defensive rebound
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·24.7
Marcus Smart blocks Trey Murphy III 's 7-foot driving floating jump shot
·
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·29.6
Austin Reaves steps out of bounds turnover
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·29.6
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·29.6
Dejounte Murray misses 28-foot three point jumper
NO 101·LAL 110
+0.5pp
Q4·42.8
Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 101·LAL 110
Q4·42.8
Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 101·LAL 109
Q4·42.8
Herbert Jones personal take foul
NO 101·LAL 108
+1pp
Q4·55.9
Dejounte Murray makes free throw 1 of 1
NO 101·LAL 108
+2pp
Q4·55.9
Austin Reaves shooting foul
NO 100·LAL 108
−2pp
Q4·55.9
Dejounte Murray makes driving layup
NO 100·LAL 108
Q4·1:00
Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot
NO 98·LAL 108
+2pp
Q4·1:17
Austin Reaves defensive rebound
NO 98·LAL 105
+0.7pp
Q4·1:21
Marcus Smart blocks Zion Williamson 's 13-foot driving floating jump shot
·
NO 98·LAL 105
+2pp
Q4·1:34
Pelicans Full timeout
NO 98·LAL 105
Q4·1:34
Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 98·LAL 105
+7pp
Q4·1:50
Marcus Smart defensive rebound
NO 98·LAL 102
+2pp
Q4·1:53
LeBron James blocks Zion Williamson 's 5-foot driving layup
· ·
NO 98·LAL 102
+5pp
Q4·2:04
Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 98·LAL 102
−4pp
Q4·2:04
Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 98·LAL 101
+1pp
Q4·2:04
Dejounte Murray shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NO 98·LAL 100
+10pp
Q4·2:31
Zion Williamson makes 2-foot two point shot (Dejounte Murray assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 98·LAL 100
−6pp
Q4·2:35
Dejounte Murray defensive rebound
NO 96·LAL 100
−1pp
Q4·2:39
Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot
NO 96·LAL 100
−3pp
Q4·3:02
Zion Williamson makes two point shot
NO 96·LAL 100
−4pp
Q4·3:13
LeBron James makes layup (Marcus Smart assists)
· ·
NO 94·LAL 100
+4pp
Q4·3:16
Dejounte Murray lost ball turnover (Marcus Smart steals)BIG MOMENT
·
NO 94·LAL 98
+6pp

Betting line

LAL -7.5·O/U 242.5·NO +260/LAL -325

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

os Angeles Lakers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 110–101.

LAL -7.5 cashed (won by 9). Total stayed UNDER 242.5 by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Luka DoncicLAL · G
USG%37.399+
Jaxson HayesLAL · C
TS%75.899+
Marcus SmartLAL · G
DEFL4.399
Deandre AytonLAL · C
CONT10.399
Austin ReavesLAL · G
TOUCHES81.897

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAL

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

57.0%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

49.9%

115.5

PPG

114.9

114.8

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.7

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR