MEM
23-37
MIN
39-23
MEM · top performer
Walter Clayton Jr.
G · #4
9
Pts
1
Reb
9
Ast
MIN · top performer
Anthony Edwards
G · #5
41
Pts
6
Reb
2
Ast
Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 2.6
NBA · Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Timberwolves · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 24 | 2 | 1-4 | 0-3 | — | -16 | 2 | 3 | |
| 23 | 12 | 4-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | -3 | 11 | 0 | |
| 28 | 19 | 7-12 | 4-7 | 1-2 | -10 | 1 | 0 | |
| 24 | 14 | 4-13 | 2-6 | 4-4 | -16 | 4 | 2 | |
| 24 | 8 | 3-7 | 1-4 | 1-2 | -16 | 3 | 5 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 24 | 8 | 3-9 | 1-4 | 1-2 | +10 | 1 | 2 | |
| 21 | 15 | 4-8 | 2-4 | 5-5 | +4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 24 | 10 | 3-6 | 1-2 | 3-4 | +8 | 2 | 4 | |
| 24 | 9 | 2-6 | 1-3 | 4-4 | +9 | 1 | 9 | |
| 25 | 13 | 5-9 | 2-4 | 1-2 | -5 | 6 | 1 | |
| Team | 110 | 36-79 | 15-38 | 23-29 | 33 | 27 | ||
| DNP: B. Clarke, S. Aldama | ||||||||
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 36 | 23 | 7-15 | 0-4 | 9-12 | +1 | 11 | 4 | |
| 32 | 16 | 6-8 | 0-1 | 4-4 | +5 | 7 | 1 | |
| 26 | 5 | 1-2 | — | 3-6 | +4 | 12 | 1 | |
| 30 | 7 | 3-7 | 1-5 | — | +21 | 4 | 6 | |
| 37 | 41 | 15-29 | 7-13 | 4-4 | +13 | 6 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 14 | 2 | — | — | 2-2 | -5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 23 | 3 | 1-8 | 0-4 | 1-2 | +2 | 6 | 1 | |
| 29 | 14 | 5-9 | 0-1 | 4-4 | -4 | 3 | 4 | |
| 12 | 6 | 2-6 | 2-6 | — | -2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 117 | 40-84 | 10-34 | 27-34 | 52 | 19 | ||
| DNP: J. Ingles, J. Phillips, J. Beringer, M. Conley, J. Clark, T. Shannon Jr. | ||||||||
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
46
FG %
48
27
Ast
19
Team stats
MEM
Away
Stat
MIN
Home
36-79
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
40-84
46
FG %
48
15-38
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
10-34
23-29
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
27-34
27
Assists
19
17
Turnovers
16
Season series
Series tied 2-2
MEM116@MIN110MIN131@MEM114MIN128@MEM137MEM110@MIN117todayModel & market
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -14.5
Between 10 and —
Total
235.5
High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg
Moneyline
MEM+55015%MIN-80089%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 6 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
14.5
0.0 since open
Total
235.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MIN beat MEM 117-110. A. Edwards led the way with 41 points and 6 rebounds. MIN outscored the other side 32-20 in the 3rd quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
MIN vs MEM
Starters vs bench
production by unitMEMstarters 50% of ptsStarters(5)
55 PTS · 21 REB · 10 AST
GS 36
Bench(5)
55 PTS · 12 REB · 17 AST
GS 46
MINstarters 79% of ptsStarters(5)
92 PTS · 40 REB · 14 AST
GS 78
Bench(4)
25 PTS · 12 REB · 5 AST
GS 12
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactCam Spencer · misses 25-foot three point jumper
Taylor Hendricks · makes free throw 1 of 2
Taylor Hendricks · misses layup
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MEM | 32 | 30 | 20 | 28 | 110 |
| MIN | 23 | 34 | 32 | 28 | 117 |
Period scoring
MEM won 1 · MIN won 2
Q1
Wells 14
Edwards 12
Q2
Rupert 8
Edwards 9
Q3
Spencer 5
Randle 8
Q4
Coward 10
Edwards 13
Shooting comparison
46%
36-79
FG
48%
40-84
39%
15-38
3PT
29%
10-34
79%
23-29
FT
79%
27-34
Play-by-play · 501 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
MEM 110·MIN 117
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MEM 110·MIN 117
- Q4·3.0
GG Jackson out of bounds lost ball turnover
MEM 110·MIN 117
- Q4·6.6
Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 110·MIN 117
- Q4·6.6
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·6.6
Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·6.6
Cam Spencer personal take foul
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·6.6
Julius Randle defensive rebound
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·8.7
Cedric Coward misses 24-foot three point jumper
MEM 110·MIN 116
+2pp
- Q4·17.2
Kyle Anderson enters the game for Rudy Gobert
·
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·17.2
Grizzlies Full timeout
MEM 110·MIN 116
- Q4·17.2
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 110·MIN 116
−1pp
- Q4·17.2
Anthony Edwards makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 110·MIN 115
- Q4·17.2
GG Jackson enters the game for Taylor Hendricks
·
MEM 110·MIN 114
- Q4·17.2
Taylor Hendricks shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 110·MIN 114
+6pp
- Q4·33.0
Cam Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 110·MIN 114
+5pp
- Q4·33.0
Cam Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2
MEM 109·MIN 114
−1pp
- Q4·33.0
Rudy Gobert shooting foulBIG MOMENT
MEM 108·MIN 114
−6pp
- Q4·42.9
Rayan Rupert defensive rebound
MEM 108·MIN 114
−0.5pp
- Q4·45.2
Julius Randle misses 9-foot two point shot
MEM 108·MIN 114
−1pp
- Q4·1:05
Cedric Coward makes 24-foot three point jumper (Taylor Hendricks assists)
·
MEM 108·MIN 114
−2pp
- Q4·1:21
Rudy Gobert makes free throw 2 of 2
MEM 105·MIN 114
- Q4·1:21
Timberwolves offensive team rebound
MEM 105·MIN 113
−0.5pp
- Q4·1:21
Rudy Gobert misses free throw 1 of 2
MEM 105·MIN 113
- Q4·1:21
Rayan Rupert shooting foul
MEM 105·MIN 113
+1pp
- Q4·1:31
Cedric Coward makes free throw 1 of 1
MEM 105·MIN 113
+1pp
- Q4·1:31
Ayo Dosunmu shooting foul
MEM 104·MIN 113
−2pp
- Q4·1:31
Cedric Coward makes running layup (Rayan Rupert assists)
·
MEM 104·MIN 113
- Q4·1:34
Cam Spencer defensive rebound
MEM 102·MIN 113
- Q4·1:36
Anthony Edwards misses 18-foot pullup jump shot
MEM 102·MIN 113
Betting line
MIN -14.5·O/U 235.5·MEM +550/MIN -800
Recap · NBA
innesota Timberwolves held off Memphis Grizzlies, 117–110.
MEM +14.5 cashed (MIN won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 235.5 by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 players in cohort
Rudy GobertMIN · CCONT1299+
Ty JeromeMEM · GUSG%33.999- Anthony EdwardsMIN · GUSG%31.397
Olivier-Maxence ProsperMEM · FTS%66.293
Cam SpencerMEM · GTS%64.992
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · MEM favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
MIN vs MEM.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
160
projections · 120 high confidence
Points
- Anthony EdwardsMIN23.7± 9.4high
- LaMelo BallMIN22.2± 8.0high
- Ty JeromeMEM18.9± 4.2medium
Rebounds
- Zach EdeyMEM11.3± 7.8low
- Rudy GobertMIN10.1± 3.9high
- Santi AldamaMEM6.7± 2.1high
Assists
- LaMelo BallMIN7.3± 2.5high
- Ty JeromeMEM5.4± 2.7medium
- Walter Clayton Jr.MEM4.7± 2.9high
Blocks
- Zach EdeyMEM1.9± 2.3low
- Rudy GobertMIN1.4± 1.2high
- Joan BeringerMIN1.1± 2.1high
Steals
- Scotty Pippen Jr.MEM1.9± 2.1low
- Taylor HendricksMEM1.5± 2.0high
- Jahmai MashackMEM1.3± 1.1high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
MEM
league avg
MIN
53.3%
Effective FG%
54.4
▶55.1%
45.6%
FG%
47.0
▶47.6%
114.7
PPG
114.9
▶116.8
27.8
Assists / G
25.0
25.7
14.6
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0