NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+8OKC

OKC

48-15

116108

CHI

25-37

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesOKC leads series 1-0VegasOKC -9.5

OKC · top performer

Jaylin Williams

F · #6

21.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Guerschon Yabusele

F · #28

16.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowOKC ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 16pp · 3rd Quarter · 3:16

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
C. HolmgrenC · #7	26	12	4-10	0-2	4-6	+10	11	2
I. JoeG · #11	30	19	7-15	2-10	3-4	+2	2	0
L. DortG · #5	28	4	2-6	0-3	—	+7	5	2
A. WigginsG · #21	34	18	8-17	0-5	2-2	+17	7	4
C. WallaceG · #22	29	17	6-13	1-3	4-4	+10	1	5
Bench
Jay. WilliamsF · #6	33	17	6-11	3-7	2-2	+1	16	6
B. BarnhizerF · #23	2	0	—	—	—	-9	0	0
A. CarusoG · #9	19	8	2-9	0-3	4-4	+3	4	1
K. WilliamsG · #34	15	1	0-3	—	1-2	-4	2	2
J. McCainG · #3	25	20	8-15	4-9	—	+3	3	1
Team		116	43-99	10-42	20-24		51	23
DNP: P. Sandfort, I. Hartenstein

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	29	18	7-14	4-10	0-1	-12	12	2
I. OkoroF · #35	32	4	1-9	0-5	2-2	-11	1	2
M. BuzelisF · #14	20	11	3-9	2-5	3-4	0	5	3
T. JonesG · #30	26	15	5-10	3-5	2-2	-18	2	2
J. GiddeyG · #3	33	14	5-12	3-7	1-2	-15	9	9
Bench
L. MillerF · #11	21	8	3-5	2-4	—	-1	3	0
N. RichardsC · #13	23	12	6-9	0-1	0-2	+5	13	0
C. SextonG · #2	28	20	6-14	3-8	5-6	-2	1	2
R. DillinghamG · #7	24	6	3-7	0-3	—	+6	5	5
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		108	39-90	17-49	13-19		53	27
DNP: M. McClung, Y. Kawamura

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

OKC

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

43-99

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

39-90

FG %

10-42

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-49

20-24

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

OKC leads series 1-0

Mar 4

OKC116@

CHI108today

Mar 28

CHI113@

OKC131

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OKC -9.5

Half-pt below key 10

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

OKC-38079%

CHI+30025%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗SpreadBet OKC -9.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

9.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OKC beat CHI 116-108. Jay. Williams led with 17 PTS, 16 REB, 6 AST. OKC outscored the other side 32-22 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs OKC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

OKCstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 57

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 25 REB · 10 AST

GS 40

CHIstarters 57% of pts

Starters(5)

62 PTS · 29 REB · 18 AST

GS 44

Bench(5)

46 PTS · 22 REB · 7 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI3rd Quarter · 4:08 · 74-70

+7pp→ 19% WP

Collin Sexton · makes 4-foot two point shot

OKC3rd Quarter · 8:17 · 68-63

+7pp→ 85% WP

Aaron Wiggins · makes free throw 1 of 2

OKC4th Quarter · 9:15 · 93-77

+16pp→ 99% WP

Jaylin Williams · misses layup

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
OKC	26	29	32	29	116
CHI	22	32	22	32	108

Period scoring

OKC won 2 · CHI won 2

Williams 8

Sexton 6

Joe 13

Yabusele 10

Wiggins 7

Wiggins 11

Williams 9

Richards 8

OKC

CHI

Shooting comparison

OKC

CHI

43%

43-99

43%

39-90

24%

10-42

3PT

35%

17-49

83%

20-24

68%

13-19

Play-by-play · 508 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·0.0
Bulls offensive team rebound
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·0.0
Lachlan Olbrich misses 32-foot three point jumper
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·4.4
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
OKC 116·CHI 108
Q4·4.4
Jared McCain enters the game for Cason Wallace
·
OKC 115·CHI 108
Q4·4.4
Jaylin Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
OKC 115·CHI 108
Q4·4.4
Leonard Miller personal foul
OKC 114·CHI 108
Q4·6.2
Nick Richards makes dunk
OKC 114·CHI 108
Q4·6.2
Nick Richards offensive rebound
OKC 114·CHI 106
Q4·9.6
Collin Sexton misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
OKC 114·CHI 106
Q4·14.6
Aaron Wiggins enters the game for Alex Caruso
·
OKC 114·CHI 106
Q4·14.6
Bulls Full timeout
OKC 114·CHI 106
Q4·14.6
Cason Wallace makes free throw 2 of 2
OKC 114·CHI 106
Q4·14.6
Cason Wallace makes free throw 1 of 2
OKC 113·CHI 106
Q4·14.6
Collin Sexton personal take foul
OKC 112·CHI 106
Q4·17.3
Leonard Miller personal foul
OKC 112·CHI 106
−1pp
Q4·17.3
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
OKC 112·CHI 106
−0.5pp
Q4·18.6
Leonard Miller misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 112·CHI 106
−2pp
Q4·29.3
Leonard Miller defensive rebound
OKC 112·CHI 106
Q4·32.1
Alex Caruso misses 25-foot three point jumper
OKC 112·CHI 106
+2pp
Q4·54.5
Collin Sexton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lachlan Olbrich assists)
·
OKC 112·CHI 106
+0.8pp
Q4·1:05
Rob Dillingham defensive rebound
OKC 112·CHI 103
Q4·1:07
Alex Caruso misses 10-foot two point shot
OKC 112·CHI 103
+0.6pp
Q4·1:31
Alex Caruso enters the game for Brooks Barnhizer
·
OKC 112·CHI 103
Q4·1:31
Isaiah Joe enters the game for Aaron Wiggins
·
OKC 112·CHI 103
Q4·1:31
Cason Wallace enters the game for Jared McCain
·
OKC 112·CHI 103
Q4·1:31
Thunder Full timeout
OKC 112·CHI 103
Q4·1:31
Collin Sexton makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot
OKC 112·CHI 103

Betting line

OKC -9.5·O/U 231.5·OKC -380/CHI +300

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

klahoma City Thunder went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 116–108.

CHI +9.5 cashed (OKC won by 8). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Cason WallaceOKC · G
DEFL599+
Chet HolmgrenOKC · C
CONT10.799+
Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995
Tre JonesCHI · G
DRIVES12.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · OKC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs OKC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

145

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
27.7± 6.8high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high
Tre JonesCHI
17.5± 7.4high

Rebounds

Isaiah HartensteinOKC
8.6± 3.9high
Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
8.0± 3.0high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC
7.6± 3.1high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Chet HolmgrenOKC
1.4± 0.9high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Cason WallaceOKC
2.0± 1.0high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Alex CarusoOKC
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

OKC

league avg

CHI

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.7%

48.2%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

118.5

PPG

◀

114.9

116.3

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

11.9

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR