NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+17ORL

WSH

16-45

109126

ORL

32-28

NBATue, Mar 3FinalSeriesORL leads series 2-1VegasORL -15.5

WSH · top performer

Will Riley

G · #27

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ORL · top performer

Paolo Banchero

F · #5

30.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowWSH ↔ ORL

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ReeseF · #15	33	9	4-6	—	1-4	-17	8	3
B. CarringtonG · #7	32	11	4-8	3-4	0-1	-30	3	5
B. CoulibalyG · #0	24	6	3-12	0-6	—	-25	6	3
W. RileyG · #27	33	19	8-13	2-5	1-3	-9	3	5
T. JohnsonG · #12	24	9	3-12	0-4	3-4	-19	0	1
Bench
L. BlackF · #14	31	8	3-8	0-2	2-2	+2	9	1
J. ChampagnieF · #9	23	13	6-9	0-2	1-1	+1	8	1
S. CooperG · #13	20	16	5-11	1-3	5-6	+6	3	3
J. HardyG · #8	22	18	7-13	1-6	3-4	+6	2	1
Team		109	43-92	7-32	16-25		42	23
DNP: A. Gill, K. George, J. Watkins

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. BancheroF · #5	32	37	15-21	1-2	6-7	+26	5	6
T. da SilvaF · #23	27	8	3-6	2-4	—	+26	9	1
G. BitadzeC · #35	21	9	2-3	—	5-8	+8	6	2
D. BaneG · #3	33	25	7-10	3-5	8-8	+27	2	4
J. SuggsG · #4	26	10	5-9	0-2	—	+10	3	9
Bench
M. WagnerF · #21	16	10	2-6	0-1	6-6	+4	3	0
J. IsaacF · #1	4	0	—	—	—	-5	1	0
J. CainF · #8	4	0	0-1	—	—	-7	0	0
N. PendaF · #93	19	5	1-2	—	3-3	+3	5	1
J. CarterG · #2	30	10	3-9	3-7	1-2	+5	3	6
J. HowardG · #13	14	12	4-6	1-2	3-3	-1	1	2
J. RichardsonG · #11	13	0	0-3	0-2	—	-11	0	2
Team		126	42-76	10-25	32-37		38	33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

ORL

Home

43-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

42-76

FG %

7-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-25

16-25

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

32-37

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

ORL leads series 2-1

Nov 1

ORL125@

WSH94

Jan 7

ORL112@

WSH120

Mar 4

WSH109@

ORL126today

Mar 12

WSH131@

ORL136

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ORL -15.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+80011%

ORL-135093%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ORL -15.5↗SpreadBet ORL -15.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

15.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ORL beat WSH 126-109. P. Banchero led the way with 37 points and 6 assists. ORL outscored the other side 40-27 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ORL vs WSH

Starters vs bench

production by unit

WSHstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

54 PTS · 20 REB · 17 AST

GS 34

Bench(4)

55 PTS · 22 REB · 6 AST

GS 45

ORLstarters 71% of pts

Starters(5)

89 PTS · 25 REB · 22 AST

GS 83

Bench(7)

37 PTS · 13 REB · 11 AST

GS 31

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
WSH	24	30	27	28	109
ORL	27	30	40	29	126

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · ORL won 3

Johnson 4

Banchero 13

Hardy 9

Bane 14

Riley 8

Banchero 13

Cooper 10

Bitadze 23

WSH

ORL

Shooting comparison

WSH

ORL

47%

43-92

55%

42-76

22%

7-32

3PT

40%

10-25

64%

16-25

86%

32-37

Play-by-play · 467 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
WSH 109·ORL 126
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
WSH 109·ORL 126
Q4·3.9
shot clock turnover
WSH 109·ORL 126
Q4·28.1
Will Riley makes driving layup
WSH 109·ORL 126
Q4·34.0
Jamal Cain personal foul
WSH 107·ORL 126
Q4·43.9
Noah Penda makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 107·ORL 126
Q4·43.9
Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 107·ORL 125
Q4·43.9
Jaden Hardy personal foul
WSH 107·ORL 124
Q4·1:02
Will Riley makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
WSH 107·ORL 124
Q4·1:05
Sharife Cooper defensive rebound
WSH 104·ORL 124
Q4·1:10
Jamal Cain misses 17-foot step back jumpshot
WSH 104·ORL 124
Q4·1:27
Sharife Cooper makes running layup (Julian Reese assists)
·
WSH 104·ORL 124
Q4·1:29
Jase Richardson bad pass turnover (Will Riley steals)
·
WSH 102·ORL 124
Q4·1:44
Leaky Black makes tip shot
WSH 102·ORL 124
Q4·1:44
Leaky Black offensive rebound
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·1:46
Sharife Cooper misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·2:06
Noah Penda out of bounds lost ball turnover
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·2:15
Noah Penda defensive rebound
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·2:20
Jaden Hardy misses 23-foot three point jumper
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·2:34
Jett Howard makes free throw 2 of 2
WSH 100·ORL 124
Q4·2:34
Jett Howard makes free throw 1 of 2
WSH 100·ORL 123
Q4·2:34
Sharife Cooper shooting foul
WSH 100·ORL 122
Q4·2:48
Jaden Hardy makes driving layup
WSH 100·ORL 122
Q4·2:59
Jett Howard makes driving layup
WSH 98·ORL 122
Q4·3:20
Leaky Black makes 17-foot pullup jump shot (Will Riley assists)
·
WSH 98·ORL 120
Q4·3:26
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
WSH 96·ORL 120
Q4·3:31
Jase Richardson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot
WSH 96·ORL 120
Q4·3:50
Jaden Hardy out of bounds bad pass turnover
WSH 96·ORL 120
Q4·3:53
Julian Reese defensive rebound
WSH 96·ORL 120
Q4·3:55
Goga Bitadze misses alley oop layup
WSH 96·ORL 120
+0.5pp

Betting line

ORL -15.5·O/U 228.5·WSH +800/ORL -1350

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

rlando Magic held off Washington Wizards, 126–109.

ORL -15.5 cashed (won by 17). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Paolo BancheroORL · F
DRIVES18.699
Goga BitadzeORL · C
TS%70.099
Jalen SuggsORL · G
DEFL3.797
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194
Julian ReeseWSH · F
DEFL2.891

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ORL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ORL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 140 high confidence

Points

Paolo BancheroORL
23.9± 9.4high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Desmond BaneORL
18.8± 7.4high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Paolo BancheroORL
8.3± 2.3high

Assists

Paolo BancheroORL
6.0± 2.3high
Bub CarringtonWSH
5.1± 1.9high
Jalen SuggsORL
4.6± 1.5high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Goga BitadzeORL
1.4± 1.2high

Steals

Jalen SuggsORL
1.8± 1.5high
Anthony BlackORL
1.5± 1.8high
Desmond BaneORL
1.5± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

WSH

league avg

ORL

53.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

46.3%

FG%

47.0

45.9%

112.9

PPG

114.9

▶

114.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

26.0

15.1

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR