NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+27BOS

BOS

41-20

10881

MIL

26-34

NBAMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesBOS leads series 2-1VegasBOS -2.5

BOS · top performer

Payton Pritchard

G · #11

19.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

MIL · top performer

Giannis Antetokounmpo

F · #34

12.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowBOS ↔ MIL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 10:28

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
S. HauserF · #30	29	14	5-9	4-8	—	+16	4	1
N. VucevicC · #4	26	10	5-12	0-4	—	+25	5	7
D. WhiteG · #9	34	18	5-18	4-12	4-4	+31	1	9
B. ScheiermanG · #55	25	10	4-8	2-5	—	+6	6	1
H. GonzalezG · #28	35	18	7-15	3-8	1-3	+27	16	1
Bench
A. WilliamsF · #77	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	1
L. GarzaC · #52	20	7	3-6	—	1-2	+1	10	1
P. PritchardG · #11	34	25	10-23	5-10	—	+15	4	9
R. Harper Jr.G · #13	15	6	2-3	2-3	—	+3	1	0
J. TonjeG · #8	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
J. WalshG · #27	16	0	0-1	—	—	+8	7	1
M. ShulgaG · #44	2	0	—	—	—	+1	0	0
Team		108	41-95	20-50	6-9		54	31
DNP: N. Queta

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. AntetokounmpoF · #34	25	19	7-18	0-2	5-7	-16	11	2
O. DiengF · #21	30	13	5-10	3-7	—	-8	1	2
M. TurnerC · #3	19	5	1-6	1-6	2-2	-6	4	3
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	31	8	3-6	1-1	1-2	-8	4	2
A. GreenG · #20	18	0	0-3	0-3	—	-4	4	0
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	23	12	4-7	3-4	1-2	-21	1	1
T. AntetokounmpoF · #43	2	0	—	—	—	-1	0	0
P. NanceF · #35	15	6	2-2	2-2	—	-4	3	0
J. SimsC · #00	22	3	1-1	—	1-2	-13	6	2
G. HarrisG · #11	13	6	2-4	2-4	—	-15	1	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	2	2	0-1	0-1	2-2	-1	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	11	2	0-3	—	2-2	-18	2	1
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	5	0	0-2	0-1	—	+3	1	2
R. RollinsG · #13	24	5	2-11	1-5	—	-23	3	2
Team		81	27-74	13-36	14-19		41	18
DNP: K. Kuzma

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIL

Home

41-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

27-74

FG %

20-50

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-36

6-9

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-19

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Dec 12

BOS101@

MIL116

Feb 1

MIL79@

BOS107

Mar 3

BOS108@

MIL81today

Apr 4

BOS133@

MIL101

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

216.5

Defensive · -9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS-13557%

MIL+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -2.5↗SpreadBet BOS -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

216.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat MIL 108-81. P. Pritchard paced them with 25 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST. BOS outscored the other side 30-20 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

MIL vs BOS

Starters vs bench

production by unit

BOSstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

70 PTS · 32 REB · 19 AST

GS 62

Bench(7)

38 PTS · 22 REB · 12 AST

GS 35

MILstarters 56% of pts

Starters(5)

45 PTS · 24 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

Bench(9)

36 PTS · 17 REB · 9 AST

GS 26

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
BOS	30	27	26	25	108
MIL	20	23	22	16	81

Period scoring

BOS won 4 · MIL won 0

Hauser 5

Dieng 8

Pritchard 9

Green 8

Hauser 6

Antetokounmpo 7

Pritchard 9

Thomas 14

BOS

MIL

Shooting comparison

BOS

MIL

43%

41-95

36%

27-74

40%

20-50

3PT

36%

13-36

67%

6-9

74%

14-19

Play-by-play · 444 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·5.9
Thanasis Antetokounmpo personal foul
·
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·6.3
Ron Harper Jr. defensive rebound
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·7.9
Gary Trent Jr. misses 29-foot three point jumper
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·16.3
shot clock turnover
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·40.4
Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2
BOS 108·MIL 81
Q4·40.4
Gary Trent Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2
BOS 108·MIL 80
Q4·40.4
Max Shulga shooting foul
BOS 108·MIL 79
Q4·45.4
Amari Williams bad pass turnover (Gary Trent Jr. steals)
·
BOS 108·MIL 79
Q4·56.3
Hugo Gonzalez defensive rebound
BOS 108·MIL 79
Q4·58.0
Gary Harris misses 23-foot three point jumper
BOS 108·MIL 79
Q4·1:23
Hugo Gonzalez makes 25-foot three point jumper (Amari Williams assists)
·
BOS 108·MIL 79
Q4·1:35
Andre Jackson Jr. out of bounds bad pass turnover
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
Amari Williams enters the game for Baylor Scheierman
·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
Max Shulga enters the game for Luka Garza
·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
John Tonje enters the game for Payton Pritchard
·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
Gary Trent Jr. enters the game for Ousmane Dieng
·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
Thanasis Antetokounmpo enters the game for Jericho Sims
· ·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:52
Payton Pritchard personal take foul
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·1:57
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·2:01
Payton Pritchard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·2:29
Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)
·
BOS 105·MIL 79
Q4·2:53
Baylor Scheierman makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Payton Pritchard assists)
·
BOS 105·MIL 76
Q4·3:18
Gary Harris makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)
·
BOS 102·MIL 76
Q4·3:26
Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
BOS 102·MIL 73
Q4·3:31
Ron Harper Jr. misses 27-foot three point jumper
BOS 102·MIL 73
Q4·3:34
Payton Pritchard offensive rebound
BOS 102·MIL 73
Q4·3:38
Hugo Gonzalez misses 23-foot three point jumper
BOS 102·MIL 73
Q4·3:54
Ousmane Dieng makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Gary Harris assists)
·
BOS 102·MIL 73

Betting line

BOS -2.5·O/U 216.5·BOS -135/MIL +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

oston Celtics went into Milwaukee Bucks and beat them, 108–81. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -2.5 cashed (won by 27). Total stayed UNDER 216.5 by 27.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Giannis AntetokounmpoMIA · F
USG%36.699+
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Luka GarzaBOS · C
TS%68.296
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Pete NanceMIL · F
TS%63.990

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

BOS

league avg

MIL

55.1%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

56.5%

46.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.7%

114.2

PPG

◀

114.9

110.6

24.6

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.8

11.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.5

Data via ESPN · hoopR