NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+5HOU

HOU

38-22

123118

WSH

16-44

NBAMon, Mar 2FinalSeriesHOU wins series 2-0VegasHOU -14.5

HOU · top performer

Amen Thompson

G · #1

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

WSH · top performer

Sharife Cooper

G · #13

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowHOU ↔ WSH

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. DurantF · #7	37	30	8-15	3-6	11-11	-1	7	1
T. EasonF · #17	25	9	4-11	0-2	1-1	+13	6	2
A. SengunC · #28	38	32	12-20	0-1	8-11	-4	13	2
A. ThompsonG · #1	31	22	10-15	1-1	1-1	+6	12	4
R. SheppardG · #15	42	19	7-18	4-11	1-2	+10	7	10
Bench
D. Finney-SmithF · #2	27	5	2-6	1-1	—	+1	6	1
C. CapelaC · #30	11	4	1-3	—	2-2	+6	8	1
A. HolidayG · #0	20	2	1-3	0-2	—	-8	0	0
J. OkogieG · #20	9	0	0-1	0-1	—	+2	0	0
Team		123	45-92	9-25	24-28		59	21
DNP: J. Green, J. Tate, I. Crawford

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ReeseF · #15	28	2	1-3	—	—	-12	4	0
K. GeorgeF · #18	22	16	5-13	3-6	3-4	-5	1	2
B. CarringtonG · #7	28	11	4-10	2-3	1-1	+1	5	4
B. CoulibalyG · #0	27	23	9-16	5-7	—	+4	1	0
T. JohnsonG · #12	22	5	2-10	1-3	—	-5	4	3
Bench
J. ChampagnieF · #9	27	12	5-7	2-3	—	+3	2	2
S. CooperG · #13	17	21	8-10	3-4	2-2	+7	2	3
J. WatkinsG · #5	18	7	3-4	1-2	—	+4	3	4
J. HardyG · #8	18	14	6-9	1-2	1-3	-9	4	1
W. RileyG · #27	33	7	1-9	1-5	4-4	-13	1	1
Team		118	44-91	19-35	11-14		27	20
DNP: A. Gill, T. Vukcevic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

45-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

44-91

FG %

9-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

19-35

24-28

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-14

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

HOU wins series 2-0

Nov 13

WSH112@

HOU135

Mar 3

HOU123@

WSH118today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -14.5

Between 10 and —

Total

224.5

Standard · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOU-100091%

WSH+65013%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗SpreadBet HOU -14.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

14.5

0.0 since open

Total

224.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

HOU beat WSH 123-118. A. Thompson led with 22 PTS, 12 REB, 4 AST. HOU outscored the other side 34-21 in the 2nd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

WSH vs HOU

Starters vs bench

production by unit

HOUstarters 91% of pts

Starters(5)

112 PTS · 45 REB · 19 AST

GS 93

Bench(4)

11 PTS · 14 REB · 2 AST

GS 9

WSHstarters 48% of pts

Starters(5)

57 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 40

Bench(5)

61 PTS · 12 REB · 11 AST

GS 52

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	26	34	34	29	123
WSH	30	21	29	38	118

Period scoring

HOU won 2 · WSH won 2

Durant 9

George 8

Sengun 15

Coulibaly 11

Thompson 12

Reese 14

Sengun 11

Coulibaly 31

HOU

WSH

Shooting comparison

HOU

WSH

49%

45-92

48%

44-91

36%

9-25

3PT

54%

19-35

86%

24-28

79%

11-14

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
HOU 123·WSH 118
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
HOU 123·WSH 118
Q4·0.0
(00:00) [Rockets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)
HOU 123·WSH 118
Q4·0.1
Sharife Cooper makes 26-foot three pointer
HOU 123·WSH 118
Q4·5.2
shot clock turnover
HOU 123·WSH 115
−0.9pp
Q4·29.2
Bub Carrington makes technical free throw
HOU 123·WSH 115
Q4·29.2
Kevin Durant technical foul
HOU 123·WSH 114
+0.7pp
Q4·29.2
Sharife Cooper makes running layup (Justin Champagnie assists)
·
HOU 123·WSH 114
Q4·32.5
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Justin Champagnie steals)
·
HOU 123·WSH 112
Q4·48.8
Justin Champagnie makes 3-foot dunk
HOU 123·WSH 112
Q4·49.3
Kevin Durant bad pass turnover (Justin Champagnie steals)
·
HOU 123·WSH 110
Q4·50.0
Kevin Durant defensive rebound
HOU 123·WSH 110
Q4·52.4
Will Riley misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
HOU 123·WSH 110
Q4·1:10
Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)
·
HOU 123·WSH 110
Q4·1:29
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 2 of 2
HOU 120·WSH 110
Q4·1:29
Sharife Cooper makes free throw 1 of 2
HOU 120·WSH 109
+0.5pp
Q4·1:29
Rockets Full timeout
HOU 120·WSH 108
Q4·1:29
Aaron Holiday personal foul
HOU 120·WSH 108
Q4·1:34
Kevin Durant makes 12-foot turnaround jump shot
HOU 120·WSH 108
Q4·1:51
Bilal Coulibaly makes 3-foot layup (Sharife Cooper assists)
·
HOU 118·WSH 108
Q4·1:57
Alperen Sengun makes tip shot
HOU 118·WSH 106
Q4·1:57
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 116·WSH 106
Q4·1:59
Alperen Sengun misses layup
HOU 116·WSH 106
Q4·1:59
Alperen Sengun offensive rebound
HOU 116·WSH 106
Q4·2:00
Reed Sheppard misses 5-foot fade away jump shot
HOU 116·WSH 106
Q4·2:18
Justin Champagnie makes 2-foot running dunk (Will Riley assists)
·
HOU 116·WSH 106
Q4·2:24
Kevin Durant lost ball turnover (Will Riley steals)
·
HOU 116·WSH 104
Q4·2:42
Sharife Cooper makes tip shot
HOU 116·WSH 104
Q4·2:42
Sharife Cooper offensive rebound
HOU 116·WSH 102
Q4·2:47
Bilal Coulibaly misses two point shot
HOU 116·WSH 102

Betting line

HOU -14.5·O/U 224.5·HOU -1000/WSH +650

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ouston Rockets went into Washington Wizards and beat them, 123–118. Decided by 5.

WSH +14.5 cashed (HOU won by 5). Total cleared the 224.5 OVER by 16.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Reed SheppardHOU · G
DEFL599+
Tari EasonHOU · F
DEFL4.599+
Amen ThompsonHOU · G
TOUCHES86.298
Alperen SengunHOU · C
CONT8.296
Bilal CoulibalyWSH · G
DEFL3.194

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

165

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Kevin DurantHOU
25.3± 4.5high
Anthony DavisWSH
20.5± 9.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
20.2± 7.7high

Rebounds

Anthony DavisWSH
11.3± 4.3high
Julian ReeseWSH
10.5± 6.4low
Alperen SengunHOU
9.4± 3.5high

Assists

Kevin DurantHOU
5.8± 2.2high
Amen ThompsonHOU
5.7± 2.0high
Alperen SengunHOU
5.6± 2.4high

Blocks

Anthony DavisWSH
1.7± 1.5high
Alex SarrWSH
1.6± 1.4high
Alperen SengunHOU
1.1± 0.7high

Steals

Amen ThompsonHOU
1.9± 1.3high
Tari EasonHOU
1.8± 1.8high
Reed SheppardHOU
1.6± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

HOU

league avg

WSH

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

53.5%

47.4%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.3%

114.1

PPG

◀

114.9

112.9

25.1

Assists / G

25.0

14.3

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

15.1

Data via ESPN · hoopR