NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+20LAC

19-43

117137

LAC

28-31

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesLAC lead series 2-0VegasLAC -8.5

NO · top performer

Jeremiah Fears

G · #0

21.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

LAC · top performer

Jordan Miller

G · #22

24.4Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNO ↔ LAC

Biggest swing: 6pp · 3rd Quarter · 6:22

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
H. JonesF · #2	21	2	1-6	0-3	—	-15	4	0
T. Murphy IIIF · #25	31	16	6-15	4-10	—	-18	2	3
D. JordanC · #9	11	2	1-1	—	—	-10	2	1
D. MurrayG · #5	22	17	6-10	1-3	4-4	-14	5	5
S. BeyG · #41	29	14	5-12	2-5	2-4	-13	6	2
Bench
K. MatkovicF · #17	14	4	0-2	0-2	4-4	-7	5	3
D. QueenC · #22	29	19	6-13	0-1	7-7	-1	5	2
Y. MissiC · #21	20	9	3-7	—	3-6	-2	8	0
M. PeavyG · #14	4	0	0-2	0-1	—	+3	0	0
B. McGowensG · #11	26	6	2-5	0-1	2-2	-20	1	2
J. HawkinsG · #24	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	+3	0	0
J. FearsG · #0	26	28	10-15	5-6	3-3	-6	3	4
Team		117	40-89	12-33	25-30		41	22
DNP: K. Looney, J. Poole

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	29	23	8-18	1-7	6-7	+25	3	5
J. CollinsF · #20	25	15	5-14	1-4	4-4	+20	7	1
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	28	17	6-9	3-4	2-2	+19	2	0
B. LopezC · #11	26	16	6-9	4-6	—	+15	7	3
K. DunnG · #8	22	9	4-5	1-2	—	+1	3	4
Bench
N. BatumF · #33	20	9	3-5	3-5	—	+5	3	4
I. JacksonF · #23	4	2	1-1	—	—	-3	0	1
Y. NiederhauserC · #14	20	7	2-3	—	3-3	+10	6	0
J. MillerG · #22	32	19	5-6	1-1	8-11	-2	2	8
B. MathurinG · #9	25	9	4-13	0-3	1-2	+16	5	1
K. SandersG · #4	4	9	3-4	3-4	—	-3	0	1
C. ChristieG · #12	4	2	1-2	—	—	-3	0	1
Team		137	48-89	17-36	24-29		38	29
DNP: B. Bogdanovic

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

LAC

Home

40-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

48-89

FG %

12-33

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-36

25-30

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

24-29

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

LAC lead series 2-0

Nov 1

NO124@

LAC126

Mar 2

NO117@

LAC137today

Mar 19

LAC109@

NO124

Mar 20

LAC99@

NO105

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -8.5

Between 7 and 10

Total

222.5

Standard · -3.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NO+27027%

LAC-34077%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -8.5↗SpreadBet LAC -8.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

0.0 since open

Total

222.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LAC beat NO 137-117. J. Miller led with 19 PTS, 2 REB, 8 AST. LAC outscored the other side 43-32 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

LAC vs NO

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NOstarters 44% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 19 REB · 11 AST

GS 37

Bench(7)

66 PTS · 22 REB · 11 AST

GS 49

LACstarters 58% of pts

Starters(5)

80 PTS · 22 REB · 13 AST

GS 68

Bench(7)

57 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 56

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NO	32	38	24	23	117
LAC	43	33	31	30	137

Period scoring

NO won 1 · LAC won 3

Fears 12

Jr. 9

Murray 8

Leonard 11

McGowens 6

Lopez 11

Queen 9

Sanders 9

LAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

45%

40-89

54%

48-89

36%

12-33

3PT

47%

17-36

83%

25-30

83%

24-29

Play-by-play · 491 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NO 117·LAC 137
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NO 117·LAC 137
Q4·8.6
Clippers defensive team rebound
NO 117·LAC 137
Q4·8.6
Micah Peavy misses 7-foot two point shot
NO 117·LAC 137
Q4·26.7
Isaiah Jackson makes 3-foot dunk (Jordan Miller assists)
· ·
NO 117·LAC 137
Q4·37.3
Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 1 of 1
NO 117·LAC 135
Q4·37.3
Isaiah Jackson shooting foul
NO 116·LAC 135
Q4·37.3
Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup (Derik Queen assists)
·
NO 116·LAC 135
Q4·42.0
Cam Christie makes 1-foot running dunk (Kobe Sanders assists)
·
NO 114·LAC 135
Q4·45.2
Jeremiah Fears bad pass turnover (Cam Christie steals)
·
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·50.7
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·50.7
Isaiah Jackson blocks Yves Missi 's 5-foot two point shot
·
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·51.4
Yves Missi offensive rebound
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·54.9
Micah Peavy misses 24-foot three point jumper
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·1:02
Cam Christie lost ball turnover (Yves Missi steals)
·
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·1:23
Yves Missi makes 3-foot two point shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
·
NO 114·LAC 133
Q4·1:34
Kobe Sanders makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Miller assists)
· ·
NO 112·LAC 133
Q4·1:50
Derik Queen makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 112·LAC 130
Q4·1:50
Yanic Konan Niederhauser enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin
·
NO 111·LAC 130
Q4·1:50
Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2
NO 111·LAC 130
Q4·1:50
Isaiah Jackson shooting foul
NO 110·LAC 130
Q4·2:00
Kobe Sanders makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Jackson assists)
·
NO 110·LAC 130
Q4·2:18
Jeremiah Fears makes 25-foot three pointer
NO 110·LAC 127
Q4·2:25
Yves Missi defensive rebound
NO 107·LAC 127
Q4·2:30
Kobe Sanders misses 26-foot three point jumper
NO 107·LAC 127
Q4·2:49
Derik Queen makes running layup
NO 107·LAC 127
Q4·2:52
Derik Queen defensive rebound
NO 105·LAC 127
Q4·2:55
Cam Christie misses 7-foot two point shot
NO 105·LAC 127
Q4·3:13
Yves Missi makes free throw 2 of 2
NO 105·LAC 127
Q4·3:13
Pelicans offensive team rebound
NO 104·LAC 127

Betting line

LAC -8.5·O/U 222.5·NO +270/LAC -340

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

A Clippers held off New Orleans Pelicans, 137–117. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAC -8.5 cashed (won by 20). Total cleared the 222.5 OVER by 31.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Kawhi LeonardLAC · F
USG%33.399
Karlo MatkovicNO · F
TS%69.698
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC · C
TS%69.198
Kris DunnLAC · G
DEFL3.697
Herbert JonesNO · F
DEFL3.596

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · NO favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAC vs NO.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 125 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Trey Murphy IIINO
20.0± 6.2high
Jeremiah FearsNO
19.9± 10.9high

Rebounds

Derik QueenNO
8.1± 5.6high
Kevon LooneyNO
6.6± 3.6high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
6.5± 1.4high

Assists

Dejounte MurrayNO
6.4± 4.4low
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
Jeremiah FearsNO
4.2± 1.9high

Blocks

Yves MissiNO
1.8± 1.5high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high
Yanic Konan NiederhauserLAC
1.3± 1.5high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Dejounte MurrayNO
1.6± 0.9low
Jeremiah FearsNO
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

LAC

52.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

46.6%

FG%

47.0

▶

48.5%

115.5

PPG

◀

114.9

113.9

25.1

Assists / G

◀

25.0

23.8

13.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

13.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR