NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+34ATL

POR

29-33

101135

ATL

31-31

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasATL -6.5

POR · top performer

Jrue Holiday

G · #5

17.0Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

ATL · top performer

Onyeka Okongwu

F · #17

25.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowPOR ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 5pp · 1st Quarter · 9:03

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. GrantF · #9	26	4	1-9	1-6	1-2	-22	2	2
T. CamaraF · #33	35	9	3-10	3-7	—	-27	2	2
K. MurrayF · #24	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
D. ClinganC · #23	31	15	5-13	2-5	3-6	-8	15	5
J. HolidayG · #5	28	23	9-16	3-6	2-2	-13	6	4
Bench
Y. HansenC · #16	6	0	0-1	0-1	—	-11	1	1
M. ThybulleG · #4	15	7	2-4	1-2	2-2	-9	1	1
V. KrejciG · #27	30	14	4-5	2-3	4-6	-34	4	1
J. CookeG · #18	4	0	0-3	0-2	—	-2	2	0
S. HendersonG · #00	24	11	3-9	1-4	4-4	-10	2	3
B. WesleyG · #1	20	12	5-11	—	2-4	-9	2	3
S. CissokoG · #91	18	6	3-6	0-1	—	-22	1	1
Team		101	35-87	13-37	18-26		38	23
DNP: D. Avdija, R. Williams III

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. OkongwuF · #17	27	25	9-15	7-12	—	+20	10	6
J. JohnsonF · #1	30	8	3-9	0-2	2-4	+16	8	8
C. McCollumG · #3	26	19	6-13	2-4	5-6	+14	2	5
N. Alexander-WalkerG · #7	28	15	5-9	1-4	4-4	+16	3	4
D. DanielsG · #5	26	12	6-9	0-1	—	+13	6	7
Bench
C. KispertF · #24	16	8	3-5	2-4	—	+10	2	0
J. KumingaF · #0	25	20	7-10	1-2	5-7	+20	7	3
M. GueyeF · #18	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	+2	2	0
Z. RisacherF · #10	23	5	2-4	1-3	—	+29	6	1
J. LandaleC · #31	18	14	6-11	0-4	2-2	+12	5	1
G. VincentG · #4	11	5	2-4	1-3	—	+16	2	1
K. WallaceG · #2	4	2	1-1	—	—	+2	0	0
C. HoustanG · #33	3	0	—	—	—	0	1	0
Team		135	51-92	15-40	18-23		54	36
DNP: B. Hield

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

POR

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

35-87

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

51-92

FG %

13-37

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

15-40

18-26

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 16

ATL101@

POR117

Mar 1

POR101@

ATL135today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -6.5

Half-pt below key 7

Total

235.5

High-scoring · +9.5 vs avg

Moneyline

POR+19034%

ATL-23070%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗SpreadBet ATL -6.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

6.5

0.0 since open

Total

235.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ATL beat POR 135-101. O. Okongwu paced them with 25 PTS, 10 REB, 6 AST. ATL outscored the other side 44-25 in the 1st quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

ATL vs POR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PORstarters 50% of pts

Starters(5)

51 PTS · 25 REB · 13 AST

GS 33

Bench(7)

50 PTS · 13 REB · 10 AST

GS 35

ATLstarters 59% of pts

Starters(5)

79 PTS · 29 REB · 30 AST

GS 78

Bench(8)

56 PTS · 25 REB · 6 AST

GS 48

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
POR	25	33	27	16	101
ATL	44	31	28	32	135

Period scoring

POR won 1 · ATL won 3

Holiday 14

Okongwu 14

Clingan 9

Alexander-Walker 7

Clingan 5

McCollum 7

Holiday 5

Kuminga 11

POR

ATL

Shooting comparison

POR

ATL

40%

35-87

55%

51-92

35%

13-37

3PT

38%

15-40

69%

18-26

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 494 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1.1
shot clock turnover
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·23.0
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·23.9
Javonte Cooke misses tip shot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·23.9
Javonte Cooke offensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·28.3
Sidy Cissoko misses running layup
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·33.8
Sidy Cissoko defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·38.3
Mouhamed Gueye misses 22-foot three point jumper
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·44.1
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·44.9
Blake Wesley misses tip shot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·44.9
Blake Wesley offensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·48.5
Blake Wesley misses driving layup
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·54.5
Javonte Cooke defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·56.8
Zaccharie Risacher misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:05
Caleb Houstan defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:08
Javonte Cooke misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:26
Caleb Houstan personal foul
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:27
Vit Krejci defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:30
Corey Kispert misses 24-foot running jump shot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:34
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:37
Javonte Cooke misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·1:42
Keaton Wallace makes 10-foot two point shot
POR 101·ATL 135
Q4·2:06
Vit Krejci makes driving layup
POR 101·ATL 133
Q4·2:30
Mouhamed Gueye offensive foul turnover
POR 99·ATL 133
Q4·2:30
Mouhamed Gueye offensive foul
POR 99·ATL 133
Q4·2:37
Blake Wesley out of bounds bad pass turnover
POR 99·ATL 133
Q4·2:44
Mouhamed Gueye personal foul
POR 99·ATL 133
Q4·2:53
Caleb Houstan enters the game for Gabe Vincent
·
POR 99·ATL 133
Q4·2:53
Zaccharie Risacher personal foul
POR 99·ATL 133

Betting line

ATL -6.5·O/U 235.5·POR +190/ATL -230

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

tlanta Hawks held off Portland Trail Blazers, 135–101. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -6.5 cashed (won by 34). Total cleared the 235.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort

Onyeka OkongwuATL · F
DEFL4.299
Dyson DanielsATL · G
DEFL4.299
Jrue HolidayPOR · G
TOUCHES84.698
Jalen JohnsonATL · F
TOUCHES79.397
Donovan ClinganPOR · C
CONT7.694

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · POR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

POR

league avg

ATL

53.0%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.1%

45.1%

FG%

47.0

▶

47.2%

114.6

PPG

114.9

▶

117.2

25.0

Assists / G

25.0

▶

29.6

16.2

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

13.4

Data via ESPN · hoopR