NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+23CHI

MIL

26-33

97120

CHI

25-36

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriesMIL wins series 3-1VegasMIL -2.5

MIL · top performer

Bobby Portis

F · #9

13.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Josh Giddey

G · #3

24.1Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowMIL ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 13pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:09

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. KuzmaF · #18	23	10	4-5	0-1	2-3	-24	3	4
M. TurnerC · #3	21	8	3-10	2-5	—	-20	7	0
K. Porter Jr.G · #7	32	10	4-16	0-1	2-2	-23	6	4
A. GreenG · #20	30	13	4-11	4-11	1-1	-20	2	2
R. RollinsG · #13	34	11	5-11	1-6	—	-19	7	7
Bench
B. PortisF · #9	24	18	7-14	3-8	1-1	+1	5	0
P. NanceF · #35	3	0	0-1	0-1	—	-4	0	0
O. DiengF · #21	21	7	3-12	1-6	—	-1	1	3
J. SimsC · #00	24	2	1-1	—	—	+1	11	2
G. HarrisG · #11	4	0	—	—	—	-2	1	1
G. Trent Jr.G · #5	4	3	1-3	1-3	—	-2	0	0
C. ThomasG · #24	18	15	3-11	1-4	8-10	+2	1	3
A. Jackson Jr.G · #44	3	0	—	—	—	-4	1	0
Team		97	35-95	13-46	14-17		45	26

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	23	12	3-8	2-7	4-6	+8	7	5
I. OkoroF · #35	32	7	2-5	1-4	2-4	+8	4	3
M. BuzelisF · #14	32	20	7-15	4-9	2-2	+3	7	3
T. JonesG · #30	28	13	4-9	1-3	4-4	-4	3	6
J. GiddeyG · #3	32	20	7-14	5-11	1-1	+26	14	10
Bench
L. MillerF · #11	27	15	6-8	2-4	1-1	+38	5	4
N. RichardsC · #13	27	11	5-9	0-1	1-4	+8	7	0
C. SextonG · #2	32	22	9-14	3-8	1-1	+28	3	2
R. DillinghamG · #7	5	0	0-2	0-2	—	-6	0	1
Y. KawamuraG · #8	1	0	—	—	—	+3	0	0
Olbrich	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		120	43-84	18-49	16-23		50	34
DNP: M. McClung

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

MIL

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

35-95

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-84

FG %

13-46

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

18-49

14-17

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

16-23

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

MIL wins series 3-1

Nov 8

CHI110@

MIL126

Dec 28

MIL112@

CHI103

Feb 4

CHI115@

MIL131

Mar 1

MIL97@

CHI120today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIL -2.5

Between — and 5

Total

231.5

Standard · +5.5 vs avg

Moneyline

MIL-13557%

CHI+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIL -2.5↗SpreadBet MIL -2.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

2.5

0.0 since open

Total

231.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CHI beat MIL 120-97. J. Giddey stuffed the line with 20 PTS, 14 REB, and 10 AST. CHI outscored the other side 33-8 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs MIL

Starters vs bench

production by unit

MILstarters 54% of pts

Starters(5)

52 PTS · 25 REB · 17 AST

GS 30

Bench(8)

45 PTS · 20 REB · 9 AST

GS 34

CHIstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

72 PTS · 35 REB · 27 AST

GS 71

Bench(6)

48 PTS · 15 REB · 7 AST

GS 43

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MIL2nd Quarter · 3:11 · 59-49

+10pp→ 80% WP

Nick Richards · misses alley oop layup

MIL3rd Quarter · 5:09 · 76-72

+13pp→ 64% WP

Bobby Portis · makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)

CHI3rd Quarter · 4:06 · 79-75

+12pp→ 36% WP

Matas Buzelis · enters the game for Isaac Okoro

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
MIL	32	34	23	8	97
CHI	30	21	36	33	120

Period scoring

MIL won 2 · CHI won 2

Rollins 9

Giddey 8

Green 10

Miller 5

Portis 11

Yabusele 15

Jr. 3

Buzelis 7

MIL

CHI

Shooting comparison

MIL

CHI

37%

35-95

51%

43-84

28%

13-46

3PT

37%

18-49

82%

14-17

70%

16-23

Play-by-play · 477 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
MIL 97·CHI 120
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
MIL 97·CHI 120
Q4·21.1
Pete Nance bad pass turnover (Yuki Kawamura steals)
·
MIL 97·CHI 120
Q4·37.3
Leonard Miller makes 23-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)
·
MIL 97·CHI 120
Q4·43.3
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·44.9
Ousmane Dieng misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·55.5
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·55.5
Lachlan Olbrich enters the game for Isaac Okoro
·
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·55.5
Leonard Miller enters the game for Matas Buzelis
·
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·55.5
Collin Sexton personal foul
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·1:04
Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot two point shot
MIL 97·CHI 117
Q4·1:20
Gary Trent Jr. bad pass turnover (Rob Dillingham steals)
·
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:24
Rob Dillingham enters the game for Tre Jones
·
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:24
Collin Sexton enters the game for Josh Giddey
·
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:24
Bucks offensive team rebound
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:27
Gary Trent Jr. misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:36
Tre Jones makes layup (Guerschon Yabusele assists)
·
MIL 97·CHI 115
Q4·1:44
Guerschon Yabusele defensive rebound
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·1:47
Gary Trent Jr. misses 22-foot three point jumper
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·1:54
Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·1:57
Josh Giddey misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·2:09
Gary Harris personal foul
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·2:31
Gary Trent Jr. makes 25-foot running jump shot (Gary Harris assists)
·
MIL 97·CHI 113
Q4·2:33
Gary Harris defensive rebound
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:35
Josh Giddey misses driving floating jump shot
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:45
Isaac Okoro defensive rebound
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:48
Pete Nance misses 25-foot three point jumper
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:54
Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Bobby Portis
·
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:54
Pete Nance enters the game for Jericho Sims
·
MIL 94·CHI 113
Q4·2:54
Matas Buzelis enters the game for Collin Sexton
·
MIL 94·CHI 113

Betting line

MIL -2.5·O/U 231.5·MIL -135/CHI +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

hicago Bulls held off Milwaukee Bucks, 120–97. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

CHI +2.5 cashed (MIL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 231.5 by 14.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Josh GiddeyCHI · G
TOUCHES94.199
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL · G
DRIVES16.799
Ryan RollinsMIL · G
DEFL4.098
Myles TurnerMIL · C
CONT8.195
Matas BuzelisCHI · F
CONT7.995

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

160

projections · 135 high confidence

Points

Ryan RollinsMIL
19.5± 7.1high
Tyler HerroMIL
19.2± 8.0high
Collin SextonCHI
17.9± 4.5high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high
Matas BuzelisCHI
6.6± 1.9high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
6.9± 2.8high
Ryan RollinsMIL
5.5± 1.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high
Josh GiddeyCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Kevin Porter Jr.MIL
2.1± 1.4high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Ryan RollinsMIL
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

MIL

league avg

CHI

56.5%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

54.7%

47.7%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.9%

110.6

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

25.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

14.5

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR