NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+25NY

43-17

89114

39-22

NBASun, Mar 1FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasSA -1.5

SA · top performer

Victor Wembanyama

F · #1

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NY · top performer

Mikal Bridges

G · #25

22.8Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowSA ↔ NY

Biggest swing: 7pp · 3rd Quarter · 5:34

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
J. ChampagnieF · #30	24	3	1-4	1-3	—	-20	4	1
V. WembanyamaF · #1	34	25	8-17	1-7	8-9	-15	13	2
D. FoxG · #4	31	7	3-10	1-6	—	-14	3	6
D. VassellG · #24	35	18	7-14	3-9	1-3	-2	7	3
S. CastleG · #5	30	13	5-13	1-3	2-4	-5	4	4
Bench
H. BarnesF · #40	17	3	1-2	1-1	—	-14	0	2
K. OlynykF · #8	4	5	2-2	1-1	—	-3	0	0
L. Waters IIIF · #43	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
K. JohnsonF · #3	17	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	-9	3	0
C. BryantF · #11	4	0	0-1	0-1	—	-3	1	0
B. BiyomboC · #18	4	0	—	—	—	-3	0	0
L. KornetC · #7	11	2	0-1	—	2-2	-10	3	1
J. McLaughlinG · #0	4	2	1-2	0-1	—	-3	0	2
D. HarperG · #2	22	8	3-7	—	2-2	-21	3	4
Team		89	32-77	9-34	16-22		41	25

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
O. AnunobyF · #8	35	12	5-11	2-5	—	+16	5	1
K. TownsC · #32	28	12	5-9	0-1	2-3	+7	14	1
J. HartG · #3	30	10	4-14	1-6	1-2	0	10	7
M. BridgesG · #25	33	25	10-17	5-9	—	+21	5	2
J. BrunsonG · #11	32	24	7-16	4-7	6-7	+6	4	7
Bench
J. SochanF · #20	2	1	—	—	1-2	+2	1	0
M. DiawaraF · #51	15	14	5-14	4-13	—	+18	4	0
M. RobinsonC · #23	15	4	2-2	—	0-3	+10	5	0
A. HukportiC · #55	2	2	1-1	—	—	+2	2	0
L. ShametG · #44	25	7	3-8	1-5	—	+19	1	3
J. AlvaradoG · #5	17	3	1-4	0-2	1-2	+20	3	5
K. McCullar Jr.G · #9	2	0	0-1	—	—	+2	0	0
T. KolekG · #13	2	0	—	—	—	+2	0	1
Team		114	43-97	17-48	11-19		54	27
DNP: J. Clarkson

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

Home

32-77

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

43-97

FG %

9-34

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

17-48

16-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

11-19

Assists

Turnovers

Playoff series

NY wins series 4-1

Jun 4

NY105@

SA95

Jun 6

NY105@

SA104

Jun 9

SA115@

NY111

Jun 11

SA106@

NY107

Jun 14

NY94@

SA90

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SA -1.5

Between — and 5

Total

227.5

Standard · +1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SA-11854%

NY-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SA -1.5↗SpreadBet SA -1.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

227.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat SA 114-89. M. Bridges paced them with 25 PTS, 5 REB, 2 AST. NY outscored the other side 34-20 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

NY vs SA

Starters vs bench

production by unit

SAstarters 74% of pts

Starters(5)

66 PTS · 31 REB · 16 AST

GS 46

Bench(9)

23 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 13

NYstarters 73% of pts

Starters(5)

83 PTS · 38 REB · 18 AST

GS 68

Bench(8)

31 PTS · 16 REB · 9 AST

GS 29

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

NY3rd Quarter · 5:34 · 58-71

+7pp→ 91% WP

Mitchell Robinson · makes tip in dunk

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
SA	21	20	28	20	89
NY	22	29	29	34	114

Period scoring

SA won 0 · NY won 4

Wembanyama 6

Brunson 11

Wembanyama 7

Bridges 7

Wembanyama 10

Bridges 14

Castle 6

Diawara 8

Shooting comparison

42%

32-77

44%

43-97

26%

9-34

3PT

35%

17-48

73%

16-22

58%

11-19

Play-by-play · 504 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
SA 89·NY 114
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
SA 89·NY 114
Q4·17.0
Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound
SA 89·NY 114
Q4·20.3
Jordan McLaughlin misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
SA 89·NY 114
Q4·35.4
Jeremy Sochan makes free throw 2 of 2
SA 89·NY 114
Q4·35.4
Knicks offensive team rebound
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·35.4
Jeremy Sochan misses free throw 1 of 2
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·35.4
Carter Bryant shooting foul
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·35.4
Jeremy Sochan offensive rebound
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·37.0
Mohamed Diawara misses 24-foot three point jumper
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·47.2
Kelly Olynyk makes driving layup (Jordan McLaughlin assists)
·
SA 89·NY 113
Q4·1:06
Ariel Hukporti makes tip shot
SA 87·NY 113
Q4·1:06
Ariel Hukporti offensive rebound
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:07
Kevin McCullar Jr. misses driving layup
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:17
Jordan McLaughlin out of bounds bad pass turnover
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:21
Carter Bryant defensive rebound
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:24
Mohamed Diawara misses running pullup jump shot
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:29
Lindy Waters III lost ball turnover (Mohamed Diawara steals)
·
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·1:47
Mohamed Diawara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Kolek assists)
·
SA 87·NY 111
Q4·2:04
Jordan McLaughlin makes driving layup
SA 87·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Tyler Kolek enters the game for Landry Shamet
·
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Mohamed Diawara enters the game for OG Anunoby
·
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Ariel Hukporti enters the game for Jalen Brunson
·
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Jeremy Sochan enters the game for Josh Hart
·
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Kevin McCullar Jr. enters the game for Mikal Bridges
·
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:25
Mikal Bridges personal take foul
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:30
Josh Hart makes running layup
SA 85·NY 108
Q4·2:33
Josh Hart defensive rebound
SA 85·NY 106
Q4·2:36
Carter Bryant misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot
SA 85·NY 106
Q4·3:01
Jalen Brunson makes 9-foot fade away jump shot
SA 85·NY 106

Betting line

SA -1.5·O/U 227.5·SA -118/NY -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NBA

ew York Knicks held off San Antonio Spurs, 114–89. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NY +1.5 cashed (SA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 227.5 by 24.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Victor WembanyamaSA · F
CONT11.999+
Jalen BrunsonNY · G
TOUCHES89.699
Josh HartNY · G
DEFL4.198
De'Aaron FoxSA · G
DRIVES14.898
OG AnunobyNY · F
CONT8.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · SA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NY win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NY vs SA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

155

projections · 130 high confidence

Points

Jalen BrunsonNY
27.4± 9.6high
OG AnunobyNY
18.6± 7.0high
Stephon CastleSA
16.2± 5.2high

Rebounds

Josh HartNY
8.4± 3.0high
Mitchell RobinsonNY
6.7± 2.5high
Julian ChampagnieSA
5.6± 2.5high

Assists

Jalen BrunsonNY
6.2± 3.2high
De'Aaron FoxSA
6.1± 1.3high
Stephon CastleSA
6.1± 1.7high

Blocks

OG AnunobyNY
1.0± 1.0high
Mitchell RobinsonNY
0.7± 0.7high
Ariel HukportiNY
0.6± 0.7high

Steals

Josh HartNY
1.5± 1.4high
OG AnunobyNY
1.5± 1.3high
De'Aaron FoxSA
1.4± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

league avg

55.3%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

55.9%

47.7%

FG%

47.0

48.0%

118.2

PPG

◀

114.9

116.4

27.3

Assists / G

25.0

27.0

12.8

Turnovers / G

14.0

▶

12.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR